Court is Wednesday the 19th.
Typing on my phone and must have used too many characters! Think I was saying there about me not going back in (yet) because the pot size will affect how I value AMGO short-med term and I suspect some IIs will have to do the same. It has been de-risked in my eyes but I await the confirmation of that next week and I'll be looking again at the value of a top up, depending on what I view the future looks like wrt amgo being able to grow, make money, make profit, etc. hence no top up for me the last few days as it felt a bit pricey TO ME based on some unknowns. Happy to miss out a bit now (bear in mind though I have a lump in already), if I can convince myself strong, steady growth will come on news of the new markets and products amgo will have.
Ok, feeling generally less negative this morning - LOL! However, I would urge everyone to go and seek out the court records for the first hearing, else you're solely relying on my memory, which ain't what it used to be! My recollection is that there isn't a way to challenge the fact that only a small % have voted. The first hearing was surprisingly 'simple' and very clear in its remit - the question of whether AMGO had done enough to communicate the scheme to the creditors was questioned and 'accepted'. The fact that so few appear to have responded may be brought up but I'd expect nothing to come of it. That's still a lot of people who think they have a valid claim and the judge already said he felt they'd done all they could to contact people. The tweaks that were necessary and agreed were really around explaining the scheme for those who may struggle to understand. That was all completed. It really was an exercise in checking the wording was of a level everyone could understand and that it was sent to everyone - the judge said that was all fine and AMGO had done what they could. The 2nd hearing is to test "fairness" . And this is where it's worth revisiting yourselves and not placing all your stock (literally) on my memory; I do think the issue of the size of contributions going forward can/will be challenged. Why are the FCA doing so now? Because now is the right time. They wanted the vote to pass. Now the vote has passed and an SOA is the will of the creditors, now it's actually easier to negotiate. A few quid here or there wouldn't have affected much if the vote was close/had gone the other way. The FCA can't 'lose' now. If the creditors voted for getting roughly 10% back, this week, the FCA can't 'lose them' money, even getting them what looks like 11% back is a win and them "making the difference" and "doing their job" . So, on the positive side; I'm very much in the "it's going through" camp. For balance, from what I heard and the impression I came away with after the last hearing; pot figures are very much up for challenge. The FCA have done a lot wrong here but I really don't think the timing of this challenge is wrong at all and I don't see the judge is going to throw anything out or ignore the will of the regulatory body. That does not, of course, mean he won't accept AMGO have done what they can already. But I suspect very much the numbers can and will be 'tweaked' to give everyone (AMGO - survival, Creditors - more money, FCA - a 'win' by being seen to have acted) what they need, based on the number of voters and now known potential max claim size. Those figures are likely being reworked (or have been) already and will be 'negotiated' in the comms with the FCA to make sure all goes smoothly for all parties next week. Very rare you find yourself in a situation where everyone can win. And in case that's too positive... this is why I think it was looking a bit pricey and why some IIs may look again at their risk calcs. It won't be wort
That's a fair question... I'm in and haven't sold through this April/May rise but I am not as 'in' as I thought I might be (i.e. I have cash waiting but haven't topped up). But, yeah, I was just going to have a break from the BB for the night. I think I have been a bit negative today, and cautious the last couple, you're not wrong. It's not deliberate. I just get BB fatigue with the volume of messages, the vast majority of which are just straight ramp/deramps or wind ups. I like to (try and) post down the middle but I think some have seen me falling on the positive side too much lately and I don't like that to appear influential, so perhaps I have overcompensated. If it needs to be said; I'm invested, I believe AMGO will survive but I'm also sure there are some bumps in the road to come and, because of that, I felt it heated up too quickly recently. I am also, quietly, a JB background buying conspiracy theorist... for full transparency. I would hate to think anyone either bought in, held or sold because of any 'opinion' I gave (later to lose money), so perhaps appear to slightly flip flop (hopefully not approaching ramp/deramp) so I sleep soundly at night. Maybe I overestimate my influence ;) If it hits £1 next week, I most certainly will be selling because that's more like my next Q3 2022 target. Else, I'll be holding for divis... which could be a looooooong time if the FCA get their way!
The new selling RNS has sucked me back in... Interesting move. I did say yesterday that some of the IIs would need to rebalance their book when their risk guys took a look. Doesn't mean they are all bailing, of course. They're just 'forced to sell', internally, based on risk. Doesn't mean they wanted to of course - they must obey their compliance procedures. Franky, as you know, I very much believe in £1 and in the timescales you suggest. Just not next week, which was the post that triggered me. Interesting times. An II selling anything will be big deramp news, probably. Buckle up for the volatility!
Looks like a micro P&D... Red candles everywhere the last 30mins or so for me, yet everyone talking about this meeting being some sort of de-risking and it being 50p this week and £1 after court. I don't filter anyone, which is probably half the problem, as I do like to consider all sides. Anyway, ok, me moaning isn't doing anyone any good... Fingers crossed for a strong close and I'll check in with you all tomorrow :)
Appreciate our shared enthusiasm and I am a bit knackered at the office but it's all got a bit rampy for me this afternoon. The RNS didn't contain news. (or did it and I'm missing it). We had the vote news (and FCA 'warning') already. People piling back in now, instead of yesterday, were waiting on what news today? A Meeting of the people who already voted the SOA acceptance? What risk was there before 3pm today that has been avoided? Maybe I am just a bit moody after talking for 2hrs straight but when the £1 ramp crew reappear, I go back in my hole. Don't get it.
Just saw the Twitter post... Amazing that someone lost the exact drop AMGO fell yesterday in their pension. Almost matches a message on here, after I posted, this morning. They must have bought at the Monday close price and sold at the Tuesday close price. Their WHOLE pension! Amazingly unlucky coincidence. Or it didn't happen. It's these sorts of posts that will lose sympathy, frankly. This is a political game now and there is nothing to be gained by winding the FCA up. They are not attending court to protect shareholders - it's clear. AMGO have admitted to misconduct (to paraphrase) and investments may go up as well as down - we've all had the opportunity to buy in or exit, any time we like. Nothing appears to have been hidden from shareholders, certainly not recently, so we have all had choice. The story that has been sold is that borrowers had no choice (whether you agree or not). They want to make an example of AMGO, let it survive and be seen as some sort of hero for downtrodden borrowers. Surely this isn't a surprise to people? If every blooming post on the FCA tweet refers to AMGO... it just looks bitter. Sorry if this sounds like an out-of-character derampy sort of post but sometimes it's better to say nothing (on Twitter, acknowledging I could do the same here). Especially the day of a big rise.
Saracens in rugby? It happens. Racing Point in F1 to a lesser extent? This is all politics and optics. The world is left leaning. Pensions are under threat. FCA have every right to have counsel in court to attempt to sway the judges opinion. Whether they will have any sway or not is unknown. I feel confident there will be an out of court 'settlement' (agreement) if you like. FCA don't want AMGO going bust, which they will if this doesn't carry. AMGO going bust is not a 'win' for the FCA. Being seen to punish AMGO harshly for previous indiscretions, whilst getting creditors 'more' is the game. Political optics. I think it's great we're having a pretty stable day (so far). Still expect some bumps in the road but fully expect a positive outcome in a week. However, DYOR, measure your own risk, etc, etc, etc. I also think that positive outcome will result in an increased share price but not some of the short term predictions being thrown around here (I see £1 next week a fair bit). I have been wrong a lot recently, albeit the surprise pullback did move us back into where I thought we might/should be at this time. Make your own decisions. etc. Still no top-up today for me (equally, no selling).
I'll try... If anyone else is able to get 'a place' - please 'support the effort' with your own posts. If work gets in the way... priorities and all that (even on holidays)! They pay me more than AMGO shares do ;)
Hey, hey - MTFB - hold for gold! Diamond hands! Something about a moon, etc, etc! Should be an interesting day here today as IIs may now see a different risk profile. Perhaps this will create some opportunity ;)
Exactly - amigo may argue that profits kick the share price and their bonuses 'enough'. We'll see. I just like some balance and the market appears to have factored some sort of dilution (which greater profit share is) in. Fair enough. I'm sure we were all wishing we were in at 5p and out at 30p as yesterday unfolded. Now we have to wait a bit longer for stability and a bit longer for growth. The unknown for me is how big the compromise will be or how aggressive the BoD get defending the current offer. Perhaps the increase will be negligIble. Perhaps they won't end up giving anything additional. I don't know. But I'm happy for the market to cool a bit so some devaluation is factored in until we know more. Could drop more today - don't blame folk for locking profits in but I would also be tempted to switch off if you're confident amigo will survive.
Thought we were all off to bed around 10pm last night! There seems to be some confused posts about what the 1st court hearing was for and what the 2nd will be for. The FCA always threatened to pop up at any time. They wanted the SOA to pass - they needed it to. AMGO surviving is their goal. It sounds counterintuitive but they are not trying to fail them now. Their survival is basically guaranteed by this vote, as are the payments to creditors. AMGO will have a choice; pay more cash or tell shareholders, fCA, government, creditors, bond holders etc they're choosing to go bust. Are we going to let them choose going bust over 10/20/30% (no idea, making figures up) dilution, if that's the method they choose to raise the funds? Other methods are available. Of course we're not. If we thought 30p was a good price on Monday and 23p was a good price yesterday, perhaps 22% dilution is factored in already. Amigo isn't going bust, the FCA are not annoyed the SOA was voted through, nor are they opposing payments or Amigo's survival. It's a smash and grab, which they'll succeed in pulling off for political gain. Mark will know what I mean when I say; they won't be allowed to do a Debenhams! AMGO over a barrel with no chance of dying. They're just going to kick the fat cats in the balls before they untie them. The road is bumpy but sunny days await. Day traders may as well leave as big swings should be short lived.
This. An out of court settlement. But there will be 'a number' associated with that... How far will it put us back? Not sure. But it's going through and Amigo 2.0 will be a thing. My gut feel says 23p at the moment probably isn't far off without positive news. It ain't going to zero. However, perhaps I wasn't clear, I don't know why but I did very much get the impression the judge was going to make some comments re. fairness at the next (19th) hearing. If you ask me straight; I don't think he felt it was 100% fair. Don't know why but having listened to the whole thing, live, it's the impression I was left with. Did I get the impression it wouldn't go through with some compromise? Nope. It's going through. 40p is a thing. I'm just not sure it is jam tomorrow, which is perhaps what many thought (including recent buyers), yesterday.
I like you. I think you may be my spirit animal.
I agree mate. You know me; I am bullish, whilst giving others the opportunity to be bearish. It's up to everyone to make up their own minds :D
There is a cap to the number of people who can attend... If everyone asks and then use all the spaces, meaning people willing to post the facts as they happen on here miss out... we all miss out! Please don't all ask to attend if you can't do your bit for our little board!
Scroll up, read the RNS and it'll tell you all you need to know. SOA passed by creditors 95% to 5% = fantastic 'win'. But the FCA say they will go to court (well, send counsel) to oppose it. Basically means AMGO probably have to put more money in the pot, to make the FCA/government look good, which means they won't be worth as much... for now. Whether they're worth 10/20/30/40p in a week or twos time... no one knows. Probably something in the middle, based on what we know... hence the market says 23p today.
It close 0.44p lower than it opened. Apologies if my point wasnt clear. It only rose from a lower low - it didn't rise from opening.
Scroll to the top and look at the RNS tab. It's basically corporate news. I don't want to buy that guy but if you're invested here or looking to be... understand all this stuff first and manage your personal risk appetite!