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Did you take into account the Metals pricing that has buy in large dropped over 10% since that time ?
its was double this before....hmm , this wont go down well
RBD needs to get that redrill in WN asap to raise confidence and the share price here
it was not a thumbs down, in the RNS it stated that FDA gave advice on what areas need to be addressed for a more successful outcome - i read that as encouraging and FDA willingness to support approval should the advice be addressed in IMM and Partners response to FDA next.
You're entitled to your opinion Gopnik, this has way more than 3 x in the mist. Ceasefore alone will double bag this SP.
As far fetched as it might sound, once things return to normal with Russia, EUA will too and we can look to 25-35p range - if not more.
Of course our strategy is disrupted now, not going to deny that.
But the assets in the ground is unchanged , hundreds of millions of tonnes of PGMs and nickel - both items in very low supply outside of Russia.
Whether it takes a year or 5, this stock is going to look a steal looking back
good luck with your other investments elsewhere
Very good question and still unsure myself. But the MMs make the market, not the investors largely.
2 things matter that will raise SP - 1) War situation ; 2) RNS on positive developments anywhere or another sanctions notice not impacting EUA.
Until then, MMs are pricing this as they see fit. Shorters trying to push this down hard and harder and is a coilled spring in my opinion
What the BOD can do, and might be useful in current state, is go into suspension. However, the BOD mates in Russia very very likely will be buying in heavy and will encourage them not to.
So, apart from paperloss in my face, has anything changed ? not really, the assets are firmly in the ground. Major change is how other nations will do business with EUA...but then EUA may not have to worry about that as selling things largely via other parties (Sinosteel and so on)
Best to let this Russ/UKR then ride out. Great opp to buy in my opinion, but then again , will have to watch carefully with this war progress largely and sanctions around it to understand risk to EUA.
Patience will pay, just how long it will take, is anyones guess
I cant see how it will happen without a fundraise from Rathlin, but once again RBD will take the lions share there as we have the cash to hand , but does leave precious little left in the piggy bank.
There's definitely a high risk / high reward scenario here if things go well and they do get West Newton pumping.....else everything hedged on Corallian and/or Cali sale.
I sold out regrettably at 0.15p, and keeping an eye of developments as i think this share has the potential to get back to its high post 1p if all lands well
Best bet is to call your broker and let them do it for you over the phone between trading account and isa.
Works fine and done asap
Good research , bought in on the back of this and the comparisons to GGP. Alot of potential here , especially being so close to UK and all
"Tosh a coin to the Witcher , oh valley of plenty , oh valley of plenty (cough) PGMs"
interesting research there Persi
TBH , never like the original Cali deal to start with.
My concerns are shared with yours in that it seems high risk that the acquiring business run it the way you said. Time will tell.
Then again , we arent expecting that business to turn into a $100mil mark cap business...no chance. $20mil perhaps at most if they get wells flowing nicely , little maintenance, get Grizzly finally done and so on.
So RBD did the right thing to give it to folks that are on the ground there , have expertise and skillset to help deliver.
Main part for me was that RBD doing the right thing in removing the operational responsbilities (and the laiblilities for maintenance etc etc) away from us.
Avoids a dilutive issue later. Of course we have to wait til Feb. 2022 to finally pass the baton , but yeah lets see what happens in the future
There we go, get some more skin in the game
Also hoping that with any sale, a share consolidation is made once our financing position is alot clearer...way too illiquid with this many shares about and need at least a 10 to 1 ratio done.
Timing the share consolidation with other news could has been positive for other stocks doing the same
I'm really pleased to wake up and see what was announced today.
You can only imagine alot of the recent 0.55p Strategic Investors that plough in £7mil in JAN this year put alot of pressure on the BOD to do something to get some returns on their stakes considering WN lack of confidence....THIS IS IT
Now how much is Corallian likely worth ?
We know RBD has a 49.99% share of Corallian
We know RBD has a 50% slice of £1mil loan to Corallian that can be converted to shares in event of acquisition
We know Victory alone (P2596 block) is estimated NPV10 £197mil NAV ( circa £98mil net to RBD)
We know other asset P2605 has Laxford gas discover (flowed 17mmfc/day) . resource estimate 81bcf , so go with half Victory value , net £44mil to RBD
Then we have prospect blocks of P2493 12.6TCF resource estimate ; P2464 / Block 3/18 = 107mmbo estimate (P10) ; P2504 10-20mmbo ; P2396 39mmbo oil discovery (was planned to be redrilled in 2020 – but got delayed due to Covid) ; P2478 174mmbo (Corallian holds 36% interest here)
Now , will all over that , even if you only consider Victory and Laxford , there is potential £140mil GBP coming to RBD either via cash or stock in acquiring business.
Let that sink in
Persi / Cloves / RNS Translator - can we give it a rest now ? I know you are both passionate about your points, but you flooding the BB here with heated arguments and finger pointing , doesn't educate anyone.
let me help everyone out , this is a summary of where we are =
- All time low sentiment / lack of confidence in BOD to execute and drive shareholder value (can change if WNA/B somehow flows some commercial volumes- however slim that is)
- Market cap is ridiculous if you consider = we have $1.2mil per annum of net revenues from Calfornia ; we have £6.3mil in the bank ; we have 53% of West Newton project (it aint worth nothing even in event of no commercials flows) ; we have 49.99% of Corallian with Victory well alone worth 84-120mil GBP net to RBD and due to be reentered in 2022 if FDP goes well ; we have a share of Danube Petroluem - but its small in scheme of items above. ; we have 3% or so of DELT (seems alot of you forgot this! that 3% worth around £1mil GBP. (a pity that merger didnt go through last year for us)
All in all , £14mil market cap is pants for what we have / granted all the less than good news doesnt help.
So , they way i see it , the BOD need to come out with a very clear statement of intent now and perhaps even the BOD investing some of their hard earned cash post WNA final results.
We also need to evaulate other projects as clearly our stategy hasnt work out that well so far (with exception of California that is actually generating some cash)
I reserve the right to change my view if WNA comes up trumps , but gotta say the confidence is low with all that has been share so far
Lets discuss some of these items constructively now
Thanks
IT
Good shares there JimmyBob
The way i read that - WNA did flow hydrocarbons to surface, but no sustained flow rates = no enough for commercial production
BUT , they are exploring initiatives with engineers as to how they can stimulate better flows = commercial production
As malcy put it , the formations are sensivitie to water injectio....other possibility is building pressure up in other ways to encourage natural flow.
Mr Market took all above as a duster....so anything that turns this around, even if the bopd is less than 1k bopd, will be greatly received.
PEDL183 block has 2 other prospect areas (that upto now i wastn aware of) and i am glad they listed them in their revised CPR yesterday.
Ellerby looks to be the next best one to go for , but hopefully we can get WNA2 sorted first.
£14mil market cap
£6mil in bank
fully carried for WNA2 testing and Victory FDP submission
Confirmation no placing coming
I've invested enough and want to see some better positive news before i invest more, but i wont be selling at these levels.
.... What would also do wonders is if the directors actually bought more. They did this in Jan/Feb 21 and that helped the sp recover , so why not do it now to show that they are confident in this company ?
Hey Ruchillrover , definitely credibility and confidence is the issue right now
Listen , things can and will go wrong. I think Sachin and Steve need to re-assess what we have and focus on the absolute best candidate activity next (like Victory re-entry if i think of current estate).
But that is likely not to happen until h1 2022 post FDP approval...maybe i'm wrong , will have to see.
Everything hinges on WN activities now til the end of the year. If we come up dry , this sp is gonna get killed , if we get something commercial then sp will recover (and the % increase of sp is dependant on flow rates)
All in all , i dont think many of positive right now as all very anxious about the finalisation of the EWT and that result.
I am expecting that this will complete before end of October. If it doesnt, it spells bad news in my opinion.
Best post i have seen in a long time , thank you Genghis15
I agree wholeheartedly with all your points.
The reason the sp is where it is is because of failure to deliver on alot of aspects. For those wanting to point out WN isnt a failure, to the market it is as no one cares if 400mil barrels of oil in the ground if we cant get the stuff out commercially. I genuinely hope that they spring a surprise on us that it does , even if 500bopd.. (got excited when b1z acid wash was doing 8k bopd...but lets reset expectations to someting more reasonable).
We need something positive to lift the sentiment now and nothing but some commercial flows will do it at this point. Even the Victory FDP wont make a massive impact in my opinion.
you just have to look at another company that had similar issue - i3e energy
they too had lots of promises and discoveries and never got folowing (Liberator etc)
But what changed for them was buying and increasing production in producing firms.
The shareprice has grown 5 fold since that low point , a perfect example of how to regain market faith and run a better business that isnt dilutive to shareholders in absence of income.
Yes i know we have Cali asset , but we getting penauts from that and i would rather we sell it and move on.
We need to purchase a producing asset / company now like i3e did and then perhaps we can turn this dog around.
If we dont, as many fear, while we have $6mil in the bank , that will erode quickly for whatver drill we do next and then what ? placing is likely to come as RBD wont find the finance elsewhere.
As a shareholder , i genuinely hope things turn around , but i wont be buying anymore until i feel the sentiment is changing and the BOD are making the right decisons.
GLA
IT
OK , understood. But Rathlin is full funded (as RBD confirmed) for the WNA extended well test.
As to what they do after that , of course Rathlin likely to need more money for funding development of said wells or return to B1Z well is pressure has built up enough etc etc.
What i can say is , in the event of success at WNA , there will be a massove rerate and also dont forget majors will be swooping in and clammering over themselves to get a piece of this and puts Rathlin and its partners in a fantastic negotiation position.
The inverse is true is WNA2 is a dud.
So yes , placings are normal , but i cannot see any of that being done until WNA2 news is out
thanks for debate on this persi/rnstranslator.
Have a good weekend
Persi , you havent answered my question on RBD board on this - why you think placing is needed in RBD ?
RBD has £6mil in cash and is fully carried for West Newton work and Victory FDP.
So please share why you think placing is needed ?
The only small chance of what might happen , is RATHLIN (not RBD) will do a placing and RBD might take that up.
Beyond that , i dont know what other reason placing is needed.
please answer my question