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Today's business update has so much positive information that it needs to be summarised to fully digest the importance. I've extracted and arranged logically word for word, from the update the sections which relate to LFT's. Of course there is masses of further positive news, BAMs especially. For now , below is the extract for LFTs. In short, it's going to be massive, world class and very likely unique. Certainly a collosal upwards inflection is about to arrive.
1. the initial clinical evaluation of this test using anterior nasal swab samples (30 positive and 26 negative samples) which demonstrated a sensitivity of 96.7% for samples with an infectious viral load (PCR Ct value < 26) and a specificity of 100%.
2. The recently announced clinical data strongly reflects the excellent analytical performance demonstrated in the lab and suggests that it may be, to date, the most sensitive S1 spike protein lateral flow test.
3. A significant proportion of the development time of the AffiDX®SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Rapid Antigen Test has been focused on achieving this level of sensitivity in human saliva and nasal swab clinical samples. The Group announced in Q4 2020 that it would focus on anterior nasal sampling because of the variability of saliva samples, although the test works with both sample types.
4. The test detects the D641G mutant of the original coronavirus and the Group expects that the test will also detect the newer coronavirus variants. Work is ongoing with Public Health England to confirm this.
5. Avacta and Mologic are also exploring the possibility of combining Avacta's spike antigen test with Mologic's nucleocapsid antigen test[3] in a single device which would be a world first and has the potential to deliver the most sensitive rapid antigen test possible. The two companies will evaluate whether the two tests can be combined in a single device and then make a commercial decision on whether to pursue this second generation COVID-19 diagnostic.
6. On the basis of these excellent data, the Group is now progressing to a full clinical validation with a larger number of patient samples to CE mark the test for professional use, aiming to bring the test to market in Europe around the end of the first quarter of this year.
7. we now have in place the infrastructure to support the commercial launch of this test
8. we are close to completing the establishment of a complex supply chain for the scalable manufacture of the test kits
9. we are making timely progress in instituting a quality management system to support the required ISO13485 accreditation for medical devices. The Group passed the first audit by the Group's Notified Body (BSI Group) and the final audit will occur in March 2021. This certification sets the organisational and operational framework for all current and future diagnostic product developments and it is an essential accreditation that underpins future commercial success.
Yes you did
On log scale with bottom in April 2020 at 1.6p then peak at 40p October 2020 Fib extension to 1.61 shows for me a tgt SP of 88p roughly end of Q2 if existing trend lines hold, including todays drop (which touches longer term trend line)
A rough look at London Stock Exchange shows close to 30 trades at either 50,000 or amounting to 50,000 within minutes. So c 1.5m trades today or c. £1.4-1.5m. That's c. 2% of market cap. I.e. not a huge deal. Let's say they keep selling, perhaps up to 5% of mkt cap then that's still not a huge deal.
Keep calm, we have drill results which are above VMS norms and have accelerated drilling to confirm just a small part of the overall deposit.
DYOR but this is a strong stock with someone that want's out for any number of reasons.
I didn't really understand VMS deposits and their significance. This article is a good primer and confirms the polymetallic nature of VMS deposits.
https://www.explorationinsights.com/site/assets/files/4062/vms_deposits.pdf
Most importantly, on page 6 there's a chart that shows for the largest VMS deposits know at time of the paper, c. early 2000, the typical mix of metals found. You'll see that the Gold grades, AU, are similar, if not lower than what today's RNS confirms.
That to me is very positive and is why a 4th rig has been deployed and an extra 7,000m of drilling commenced on top of the existing 2,800m already done.
DYOR but this is only going one way.
I got my EGR certificate directly from the company on Wednesday
As I say below the BFS is underway as confirmed in CEO and CFO profiles below. The CEO and CFO have more than enough expertise and contacts to raise whatever funds are required given the EU demand for Li.
Anton the Plessis; CEO - +20 years' experience in the finance sector where he held senior positions at several international investment banks including CIBC, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley with a focus on advising natural resources companies on the execution of strategic and financing transactions.
Cherif Rifaat; CFO - UK Chartered Account with +20 years of VC,, Corp. Finance, Op Turnaround and IR experience. He has worked cross sectors with an emphasis on start up, pre IPO or restructuring phase. He has been a corporate adviser to Bacanora since 2014 before it made its original IPO on AIM and is now its Co. Secretary. His role at Bacanora included preparing the Financial Models for the PFS & BFS for the Sonora Project. Was also involved in the financial modelling for the Zinnwald BFS.
para 1 typo, should say ... and will not complete DFS till end of this year.
The ZNWD resource has been at DFS stage since 2018 and new management team is now certainly looking at BFS (banking feasability study) stage. EMH is still at PFS stage and will not complete PFS till end of this year.
In the ZNWD corp presentation their Li resource base is confirmed to be 40.4 Mt with EMH (at the Cinovec mine) having 659.9 Mt.
In the broker report it confirms the EU directive for EV cars and the consequent demand for EU Li. The report states
" The EU goals cannot remotely be met without Cinovec going into production. We estimate that demand in
2025 will be equivalent to the production of at least six Cinovec-sized mines. "
EMH at the Cinovec mine is 16x bigger than the ZNWD resource and are in effect on the same resource area but on different sides of the German and Czech border - but both in the EU.
All of this means the likelyhood is that ZNWD and EMH will at the very least share processing facilities to get economies of scale and likely will merge to become one entity.
Since ZNWD will be ahead of EMH, their financing and offtakes will come first, their mine will open first and they will rerate significantly and will of course sell all the Li they can produce. Later ,there will be a further rerate as, likely as not, the two companies come together.
What a great opportunity. DYOR but current SP is not here for long.
GB's MWG package upset me and now he's done it again with an even higher payload and got his wife in to boot. No good at all.
Government wants and needs UK based diagnostic Industry of massive scale. This article is not about massive scale. That news is about to come from those we know are gearing up for massive scale . ABDX BBI using Avacta affirmers that can be manufactured much more quickly than antibodies.
DYR
Abingdon Health
A Yorkshire diagnostics company is set for growth after securing a £1.5m investment from NPIF – Mercia Equity Finance, which is managed by Mercia Fund Managers and part of the Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund. The funding will allow Abingdon Health to fulfil new contract wins and invest in new equipment and processes at its headquarters …
Impossible to consider that company chosen to lead UKRTC wont be involved. And of course Abingdon has partnered with Avacta. As lead Abingdon would not ignore BBI who had also partnered with Avacta.
DYR
Colin King, CEO of Omega Diagnostics, said: "We welcome the news that Mologic has received CE Mark for its Rapid Antigen Test, and are excited about completing the technology transfer and CE Marking in the New Year."
Avacta BBI and ABDX likely very close to CE Mark too
Mologic has CE mark for professional use.
https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-receives-ce-mark-approval-for-professional-use-covid-19-rapid-antigen-test/
Surescreen has limited production capacity. So major contract for self use still to come using much larger manufacturers abdx and bbi which we know have chosen avacta.
Stay calm DYR
AS would know this mornings RNS would not go down well but he at the same time releases trademark names for the LFT and BAMS!! I wonder if whats happening is that the price is being manipulated down so IIs can get in just prior to news we all know is coming???
same - for 2nd time - surely ARB deals aren't killing their platform???
Using public information I have put together a very detailed multi-year revenue forecast for DVRG. For 2019 and 2020 it was almost spot on. It takes into account;
Skin Product tests (on framework contracts)
Skin Product R&D (one off contracts)
Multi-party/collaborative Labskin projects
Small Microtox Units (new sales and AI retrofit)
Large Microtox Units (new sales and AI retrofit)
AI analytic projects
CBD testing
Other products (not including breathalyser)
Revenue from those revenue streams for 2021 comes in on my model at £14.3m. Extra revenue from the breathalyser is not included since it could be almost any amount. I have profitability by Q3 if not earlier.
All in all, rock solid investment.
DYR
Around same time BBI announced partnership with Avacta. Pretty clear to me that the two news items together confirm the govt knows about Avacta and BBI and that it's a process to get to mass volumes. HOLD TIGHT
BBI Solutions Partners with Avacta Group PLC as COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test Manufacturer
06/08/2020
BBI Solutions Partners with Avacta Group PLC as COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test Manufacturer
BBI Solutions is pleased to announce it has been appointed to manufacture the saliva-based rapid SARS-COV-2 antigen test that is being developed by Affimer® biotherapeutics and reagents developer Avacta Group plc (AIM: AVCT) in conjunction with Cytiva.
South Wales based BBI Solutions is a leading global developer and manufacturer of raw materials and finished test products for the in-vitro diagnostics market with manufacturing sites in five different countries, spanning four continents.
Dr. Mario Gualano, Chief Executive of BBI Group, said: “BBI are delighted to have been appointed to lead the manufacture of Avacta’s rapid coronavirus antigen test and to be able to further extend our lateral flow expertise to addressing the global challenges presented by COVID-19.
“Our ability to respond rapidly to Avacta’s needs is testament to our team’s diagnostic expertise and the supporting manufacturing and quality systems we have implemented at our ISO13485 accredited facility.”
The manufacturing agreement between BBI and Avacta announced today comprises accelerated development and validation of a scaled-up manufacturing process that has the potential to ramp up to a production capacity of millions of tests per month. Avacta, Cytiva and BBI are in the process of technology transfer of the prototype and related manufacturing procedures for the saliva-based rapid COVID-19 antigen test from Cytiva to BBI.
In case you missed it BBI all along have been preparing for an end of year test delivery. This is off their news web page
BBI creates new jobs to support next phase in COVID-19 home test development
20/08/2020
BBI creates new jobs to support next phase in COVID-19 home test development
BBI Solutions is recruiting for roles to support its work as part of a UK Government consortium, tasked with developing and manufacturing a Covid-19 Point of Care antibody test to support the government strategy on COVID-19 testing.
Four months ago, UK Government established the UK-Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC), in which BBI Solutions is a partner, to develop a COVID-19 lateral flow antibody test that can be used by people in their homes to determine if they have an antibody response to COVID-19, which would confirm previous infection.
This test together with the Government’s overall strategy on testing and vaccination mark a move towards detecting and eradicating the virus.
The successful completion of the development of the assay means BBI and its UK-Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC) partners require more staff to meet production demands in advance of final approval of the test by regulatory authorities.
BBI is investing in multiple roles at its manufacturing headquarters in Crumlin, South Wales, and these roles will be based in Manufacturing, Quality Control, Compliance, Technical Operations and Supply Chain.
Given the scale of the potential demand for the test within the UK, the Consortium will introduce a phased ramping up in capacity, but is making these key appointments in preparation for ensuring a smooth transition to high volume production at the manufacturing facilities by the end of the year.
This is a unique opportunity to join a progressive and growing organisation, which is contributing to South Wales and the UK’s resistance to the pandemic.
BBI Group Chief Executive Dr Mario Gualano said: “Given the difficult times we find ourselves in, we are delighted to announce vacancies. We have always valued our employees and they have been key to the speed at which our work with UK-RTC has progressed. We are pleased to be able to build on our team – these are exciting times for BBI and we envisage these key appointments playing their part in further developments with the Consortium.
“This is a very complex project that is being completed at extraordinary speed, compared to a normal test development programme.
“But we remain on track to deliver a test to the UK that will make a significant difference to the approach needed to manage COVID-19 infections.
“We are proud to be an integral part of this project and are thrilled with the progress to date.”