Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Here is the Parliamentary positioning paper for new regulations. It's an important read and confirms why we are waiting for order news. Orders will flow once manufacturers have passed these revised regulations. CE and ISO standards will not be enough anymore.
https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6644/documents/71512/default/
Not long now IMO. DYOR
thanks for posting @Tzaar68
Clearly the major reason for a total blackout on order news for AVCT or anyone else is the Governments desire to vaccinate as many as poss before changing the tune. Now the tune has changed and we will have to pay for our own tests and take our own responsibility then legislation is required to ensure the safely of Public Health. Once that legislation is in place then orders will flow especially for the best tests.
Here's the link again for those that missed it earlier
https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2021-07-12/debates/2A31C739-2678-474E-A02E-E78F33615C47/MedicalDevices(CoronavirusTestDeviceApprovals)(Amendment)Regulations2021
One reason is Avacta want to know Gov orders and testing position before releasing stock to distributors. Other reason is everyone in supply chain is incompetent. I believe 1st reason fits current facts better. 2nd reason is possible but poor fit to facts.
IMO well have news on orders c Freedom day. In meantime trolls will flush out weak hands but in fact nothing is different.
I bought some Avacta tests for my firm and was told supply will be with them to ship to me from July 15th.
Thinking about it why July 15th? Surely Moligic/GAD have been producing the tests in anticipation for some weeks now. My guess is that AVACTA are waiting to see how many the Govt orders before releasing any supply to distributors. My view is reinforced by latest NHS testing news posted below making it clear Innova is gone and also the Post office contract of £268m to deliver the tests. In addition, since it's the Govt strategy to focus on vaccines first its clear there will be no news on orders till July 12th when they make a final decision on July 19th Freedom day.
IMO we will have contract news in and around July 15th.
News flow to come
. thousands of samples still at the lab but COVID issues now largely under control so will come in much more quickly
. 19 holes drilled so far still 5 more holes of data to come
. Aug Agnico to confirm roll over of JV and $4m 2022 drill programme (by Sep 7th deadline)
. know where to drill in 20km fault line so that starting Oct new areas will be developed as well as APTA which is tiny and not necessarily best drill area
. Geophysics surveys can start now dry season has commenced
. two very large applications to increase exploration rights now underway
. 7 other targeted areas in addition to APTA
. Agnico and Newmont want very large resource base - 5-6m oz and APTA has already provided a good chunk
Great day for OMI shareholders. Off for a beer now
I've just bought a box of AVACTA tests for my small company from Bioserve. They mentioned that they are receiving their first shipment by July 15th so I'll get mine a few days later. They also said they have had significant orders and interest to date.
I'll post again when I receive them.
My AVCT valuation for 2021 is £4.1bln and for 2022 at £13.2bln with no dilution since AVCT will be self funding.
As another poster has said, how many biotech's can say they are going into ground-breaking cancer CV trials with no need for further capital.
My AVCT valuation for 2021 is £4.1bln and for 2022 at £13.2bln with no dilution since AVCT will be self funding.
As another poster has said, how many biotech's can say they are going into ground-breaking cancer CV trials with no need for further capital.
I forgot to add that latest Govt guidelines to LFT manufacturers is to have CV trials with at least 100 participants. AVCT had 200 - 98 with positive cases and 102 with negative. Others, notably Innova, had far less than 100. So we are well above the guidelines and with the best and improving test.
Once free tests are no longer available it's clear not all people will buy LFT's but a lot of venues, travel industry, educational facilities and workplaces will either insist on them or provide them. My own models suggest, dependent on the time of the year between 5-20% of the UK adult population will buy or be provided for. In the EU, APAC and USA I have lower take up in my model.
Even with low take up demand with far outstrip supply of the tests people want to use.
As I say strong buy DYOR
Today RNS and presentation was bad and very good. It’s useful to look at these objectively to see why investors should hold or sell.
BAD: No confirmed sales as of today
VERY GOOD: Commercialisation pathway very clear
a) Large direct sales are incoming – airlines, workplace & possible govt contracts;
b) Target sale price EU 4-5 with c. 20% avg margin ;
c) Distributors and licencee’s will be large part of commercialisation – first one signed, more to follow;
d) Medussa leading the self-test CE marking and then direct sales to consumers;
e) EU, UK & APAC key immediate markets (probably in that order), USA in 2022;
f) 5m UK manufacturing capacity allocated to AVCT via GAD and ABDX – can grow up to 30m/month;
g) 2 other non UK manufacturers lined up with two in reserve – for up to 30m/month as required and more if use reserves;
h) COVID LFT’s to have market life of c3-4years but pipeline of additional diagnostic tests already in development probably for rollout from 2022 to take up any diagnostic slack
i) ISO certification completed with award due imminently;
j) Test already the best but nonetheless further being done to get to S&S of 100/100;
k) Security of supply of Affimer reagents is guaranteed since can be manufactured and tuned at short notice;
l) Variants becoming stronger but AFFIDX can detect them all;
m) Performance and ease of use will drive demand and support prices/margin;
n) By c 2023 AVA6000 will be finalising Phase 1b trials and will be have had significant press coverage by that time. Therapeutic revenue will likely take over from Diagnostic from 2024
o) Albeit not covered today revenue streams from BAMS, collaborations, TMAC, broader Precision Chemo will also fall into place now Affimers are being showcased.
RNS’s on any of the above will cause SP rerates. I’m a large holder and my research says STRONG BUY.
What a company and so much transparency and news flow about to come. I liked the mention of II's being very interested due to the ESG focus.
Have a re read of this BMJ article. Innova is not fit for purpose and was only used because there was no option at the time. You don't then contract Toyota engineers to build your own factories if you think otherwise.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4469
Once the RNS drops MMs will need shares they're clearly accumulating them now from weak hands. Also id like to see some evidence of Innova actually building recruiting and sourcing equipment else its just publicity to win contracts that will be supplied from China anyhow.
Great find
2 majors don't expand operations if risk/reward isn't good. 2000 assays held up at Labs. Those results available in a few months will confirm where to drill on what we are already seeing are good intersections. IMO strong RNS.
This is an important point from the Agnico Laronde mine
"Gold-copper and zinc-silver mineralization occurs in the form of massive and disseminated sulphide lenses. The presence of silver and base metals adds considerably to the value of LaRonde’s gold ore, reducing the total cash cost to produce each ounce of gold on a by-product basis."
Agnico & Newmont funding all drilling costs @ £4m pa. Prior placing and warrant sale funds untouched so have £6.3m cash on balance sheet.
3 drilling rigs are operational and 4th about to start. Drill on average 500m/month/rig. Have drilled 3,500m since November.
A lot of assays being sent every week to Lab in Lima Peru , one the world’s largest, so there will be regular news flow, espec now COVID restrictions beginning to lift.
Only 50% of mining applications have so far been approved, remaining 50% will likely be approved this year. So no need to find other opportunities.
Anza confirmed as a multi-metal mine and will be able to leverage experience of Agnico’s largest mine which is also multi-metal.
Next results c. easter and after then a regular news flow as multi metal, including substantial gold, opportunities are fully clarified.
All in all very positive. Also, I note JV is in last 18 months of 4 year agreement so everything is likely to accelerate.
While we ride out the current bond yield explosion which is driving everything down including gold we drill at an accelerated pace with two of the worlds largest miners backing. The fear of inflation post pandemic will both abate and be controlled by central bankers at which point gold will start it's next longer term leg up (the longer term trend being up) and by which time our reserves will be in play. True enough there may be trading opportunities outside of gold junior miners but can you time them? Would you take 50p or more in a years time if you were sure of it? II's would as they probably are right now with OMI, PI's??
25m warrants @3p to be exercised in next two years. Approx 8% dilution. No one will exercise them unless materially above placing price and won't be all at once. So real impact totally negligible espec once SP rerates when major LFT contracts get awarded to AVCT, ODX, ABDX etc.. which almost certainly will have need for digital passports.
10. Avacta will immediately be able access initial manufacturing capacity through Mologic, in addition to scale-up manufacturing capacity with BBI and Abingdon Health. Combined, these manufacturing partnerships can scale up to several million tests per month and potentially much higher with further investment. Avacta is also continuing its discussions with other manufacturers in the UK and overseas in order to be able to access additional capacity to ensure that it can meet the expected demand.
11. The Group continues its commercial discussions with potential customers for the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Rapid Antigen Test and expects demand to be present for rapid testing for at least two years and probably for longer.
12. Healthcare services providers and governments are likely to be the largest volume customers of a professional use rapid antigen test and with an estimated price point in the mid-single digit GBP range. A higher price point is anticipated for sales to corporates for workforce testing.
13. Disclaimer: AffiDx SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Rapid Antigen Test not currently for sale in the United States.