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Let's see what happens, but from history we seen what the government have done to BT, And the big six such as SSE and CNA. Government interventions is a bad thing, they on the voters side not the capitalist.
The government will flood the market with large supply of cheap houses, this will effectively drive down profit margin. The land Bdev bought at premium price will be negative equity.
If this comes out in the autumn budget, Bdev will be 515.
In the article "It would effectively make the Government one of the nation's most significant housebuilders and break the monopoly of the biggest developers." Looks like the government is one step closer to nationalisation of the house building industrial. A big competitor have join the house building industry. Bad news.
Looks like on big boy have cashed in their profit, keep buying you suckers.
Yes, to build council houses, Bdev build good quality house so it's not exactly good news because it will drive the property price down.
The price will bounce up and down around this level until the last minute sell off by the big boys and traders. Cashing in on small long term share holders buying in at this high level. It's a game of chicken, personally I would cash in my profit now and buy back at a better price. When there is good news there is always bad news, otherwise the share price will be infinite.
Dropping as we speak, I did not say 515 unless it's a typing mistaking. I said, the price should dip to 650 by Wednesday and 615 at open on ex div dt, possibly back to 591. As people cash in on the profit and buy back at a better price.
Well, if you hold Bdev long term say 10 year, you will get a reasonably good return. I always believe in Bricks and mortar, that's why I am here. The shares are simply overbought, The builders are all doing well because they are building on land bought at cheaper price few years back because it takes time to get planning permissions and also a a strategy to release them slowly to maximised the selling price. Most of their profits are from gain in land and property price, not from great demand, Bdev have to slashed up to 10% of new flats in central London to attract buyers a few month back because property prices are so high, buyers are turning away, I am a property manager, so I know what is going on, the estate agents are suffering from this frozen market, less people are willing to sell and less are willing to buy because of increased in stamp duty, so people are not moving, they just do extensions to their houses instead since the stamp duty can pay off the price of the work. While most first time buyers couldn't afford to get on the property ladder because property price are so high. The cheaper land bought are using up very soon and new lands are bidding at high premium price. So the next profit report won't be as attractive. Plus Theresa May said she is personally taking charge to fixed this broken housing crisis. The House builder CEO were summoned to Downing Street on that. The government is forcing the house builders to quickly build on their stock of lands instead of releasing them slowing to maximise the gain. This means more work force and more % of cheaper affordable homes instead of prestigious properties to maximise the use of the land for good profit. This will tightly squeeze on profit. I do have a large portfolio holding shares for long term, it's not getting anywhere by standing still. But my trading account is doing great, I always buy at a low price on the bad news and sell at a high price on the good news. But you have to be careful, not every company are safe buying low on the bad news because some company can go into administration if they have lots of debt. Well Bdev is safe, that's why I trade on it. I just don't think it can substain at this high level for long. The traders will wipe out the gain once reaches its peak and ramp it back up once it reaches its low. I made my money by riding the waves instead of sitting still and get slaughtered.
There is no definate answer to when is best time to sell. If we all know, we will be billionaires by now. We are basically playing a game of chicken, some may sell early to play safe, some hold on until the last minute. It really depends on how the big boys think, when they start selling, it will be a complete wipe out. I loss 400k back in year 2000 because I was too greedy, now I learned from my mistake and up ten fold. I sell when I feel I have made a comfortable profit rather than taking risk in waiting for the extra mile. Some time we sell at a lost to live another day and buy back at a much lower price. The market goes up and down so there is always a good opportunity to get back in.
Then possibly back to 615 level after exdiv date with market price correction.
Will dip to 650 by next week Exdiv dt
Dropping now, will dip after 4pm
I reckoned you guys are paid by the Traders to ramp up the shares, Even the CEO is selling his at 591 a month away from Exdiv dt, indicating his vision on the company share price is only worth up to that level. The current level is simply overbought, traders paid you guys to ramp up the share price and profit from stupid small share holders buying in at a dangerously high level. I am here to do justice and help to wake them up.
Short at 696 now up by 2.5K, not closing today, going to wait for next week dip to 650. Holding charges are minimal on short in spread betting because of negative interest on selling the share, While positive interest for long.
Smaller share holders start selling now, wait for later in the afternoon for the big dip when the big boys start selling. Those who long on spread bet had to close tonight to avoid hefty holding charge over the weekend. Guarantee profit selling today.
This mornings peaked at 698 have triggered the beginning of a sell off, the share price will dipped just before close as today is Friday, those who played spread betting have to sell otherwise they will need to pay 3 days holding charge. So they will close the bet and profit from that. Next week all the big boys and fund manager will be selling and buying back after Exdiv dt to avoid dividend tax. Some may do it by close today since it's the weekend.
Dream on, you will see your profit wiping out when you woke up. From passed Exdiv, the share price dropped by 105p in 2015 Exdiv, 2016 only dropped by 55p because their were less crazy people chasing the share price for Exdiv. The higher it get, the lower it fall. Even the company CEO sold his share at 591 on the 22 September, that would suggest the company share is only worth that much to him. May be he can see H2 dropped because the company have finished using up cheap land bought several years back and now buying new land at high premium price is going to squeeze on profit margin. Plus he sense government intervention because of the broken housing market.
What, missing me already? I got a real job and business to run during the day, only posting when I get bored. I enjoy p1ssing you guys off, but it's a real debate and true facts though. Final trade after closed 688p, I wouldn't be supervised to see it getting near 700 which is less than 2% away, then everybody start selling especially next week close to Exdiv, no one wants to pay dividend tax unless you are a low earner. The share price will drop by the amount of dividend to be pay a month after at open on Exdiv as a market price correction, so why wait a month for the dividend instead of cashing out on the profit which is guarantee at this high level than risking the price tumbled when every body start selling the day before Exdiv. This way you get to live to see another day, buy back the share at a better price. I have sold my a bit earlier to be safe, don't laugh at me for missing that little extra mile, even the Directors of Bdev sold their shares much early than me at a much lower price to play safe. I have placed an order for large volume short at 695, don't think I can get on the boat at 700, people will be selling like no tomorrow.