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Think it is end of next month for warrants but the base price seems to vbe solid around 19/20p for now.

The progress should be good from here.

Will rainy season put activities at a pause in terms of drilling/proving up.

Some good things to come here.

OilyFred

For 8.5% of their 30TCF field Cove got £1.2bn. So for PRD 10x would be £12bn. Now that would discount back but is still significant multiples on where we stand today.

The large field I've seen developed (stop start) by a major is getting on for 25bn CapEx but that is LNG. I know folk have said CNG here and a ready made pipeline.

So if you don't have to do $25bn CapEx the numbers can get even crazier.

However, that takes a good deal of time to.prove up and quite a bit of drilling and testing. Hence why the BoD are keen to get revenue streams to help fund although there may be a partial sale and carry depending what is proved in current programme.

If you've enjoyed the Material World book, them highly recommend World for Sale also (Javier Blas and Jack Farchy). Would also thoroughly recommend Red Notice (Bill Browder) and Moneyland (Oliver Bullough)

Depends how it was marketed, if in fact it was. Going back a few years you can see the excitement of Paul Cloke the Tullow E&P Director about the prospect. However, Tullow have since been battling existential problems to secure their very existence so Guyana and Comoros etc just haven't featured for them. Their Exploration budget fell massively.

There is a shed load of oil there of that there seems little doubt. Is it lighter in the Cretaceous - hope one day we find out.

From my research at the time I think I recall reading the sulphurous aspect occurs as the oil makes contact with air and occurs more at shallower levels than deeper in the source rock. So even if heavy(ish) if not sulphurous then it may be very marketable.

Agreed Keith - don't think the NDA would preclude announcement of results though. Commercial discussions around what successful flow rates mean for level of offtake and revenue agreement (gas sales agreement - we call them PPA in renewables for power) these would be commercially sensitive.

I was thinking of a different schedule. Once testing begins, if and when it is successful how do they RNS it. Do they do so incrementally as they go, do positive results on flow to prove CNG lead to.commercial discussions on offtaker/debt facility and thus info is embargoed for a period (don't think the result needs to be embargoed probably just an NDA on discussions for commercial exploitation).

Still should we get to that point we are already motoring but should be interesting times.

They were just called bangers where I grew up, stories were told of someone who lit them and tried to insert them in or near a cat - the cat was quicker then him, he was quite dim and lost a couple of fingers as he forgot the time critical element.

M-Rob

Agree it shouldn't be about flipping and flopping in and out as some do. However, where timelines are given if slippage is likely then no harm in an update - needs to be substantive though so if still securing the tubing or availability of Sandjet personnel only update when you have the info.

Under promise and over deliver is not something many O&G stocks do but there is a significant technical element and I dare say permits etc may be somewhat impacted by recent tragic events.

The testing is as you say funded and will be happening imminently and at the end we will hopefully all be content or perhaps something even more emotive depending how those doors end up (blown off or blown to smithereens one hopes)

Was just looking over Cove story again, and whole that is LNG not CNG as a solution and partly explains the bigger discount factor along with the higher cable exchange rate at the time- even that equates to £1bn per TCF or thereabouts.

Haven't looked back at gas prices in 2012/3 but I'd imagine there is a higher for longer scenario currently in pricing curves which plays in to values.

Guess we just need to see if the testing can begin to firm it up for initial resources and then the.plans to prove up further.

An interesting few weeka/months ahead.

Very tempted to have a look at Super Cerame on the office.Bloomberg terminal and ask our MO team for any S&P/Moodys reports to see how their balance sheet looks for a bid but not my sector so hard to justify. Am sure.some interesting publicly available info and indeed OHNYM or a Moroccan GSE may fancy a crack themselves.

I'd like to have made it to the presentation last week but although in London wasn't able.

Be useful to see in presentation the timeline to monetise, investment and lifecycle of the drills so the cashflow generated is clearly defined.

To be clear, I think the cashflow will be significantly positive and the earnings relative to market cap as it gets to 7-10k bopd is hugely positive.

Just bought a few more at a bit under 11.9 - impacts the average a bit but more de-risked now with funds although not risk free. Hopefully good news flow from here on in.

Thought I'd posted earlier but must have dozed off on train and failed to do so.

While some might want to point to water, I prefer to look at the identification of 115ft payzone between the top and the Oil Water Contact. I like also management's assertion that if required they can use horizontal drilling to maximise reservoir extraction and their confidence in the new reserves figure.

What else do I like, I like that Venezuela used to produce lots of heavy oil but since their political masters lost the plot struggle to extract and sell the stuff which along with Russian Urals being sanctioned there is refining capacity of heavy crude and industrial demand for it too as the company is already showing with CN2.

Easy to pick language selectively to tell a story but without the full context it's a bit like that old quote about statistics and lies/damned lies.

Warrants or not it seems there is a good raod ahead for AXL if they continue to perform as they have.

The 10% dilution is relatively small beer, whereas debt can be a Sword of Damocles without the certainty of cashflows to cover it. As somebody else mentions (HighlandMatt I think) equity for exploration.

Curious how long CPR takes following flow testing or if there is an indication of numbers that will be possible following SandJet testing.

While good to see what looks like a blue day it isn't the daily bumps up or down that will make the difference but the move on substantive news.

I'd had some concerns here that debt funding for the CNG prospect would come with dilution, as it does in many other spheres. However, if the off taker is willing to put some money up front for a more favourable rate when the gas flows then I think that assuaged some of the concern here.

OHNYM and the local regime appear supportive so if testing can get potential partners comfortable on flow rates then jobs a good un.

Utter tosh - it comes down to management capability. I've seen well funded projects above this cost level fail delivery due to poor management of construction and/or procurement schedules.

HZM have demonstrated an ability to procure and implement and indeed are doing early commissioning already. Commissioning is phased and not just back ended - the latter part is how key elements combine they do not wait until all are ready before testing anything. Hence, much Test & Commissioning work will already be underway.

The Executive team has ample experience to deliver this and if they were materially behind their Technical Advisors would report and it would be announced but the completion remains on or ahead if schedule and budgeted costs.

This is from experience of Roads/Hospitals/Schools/Oil Rigs/Tankers/Desalination plants/LNG plant/Wind Farms and Waste to Energy plants.

Despite Efficient Markets Hypotheses - markets are not always efficient. On any Fundamental Analysis this is a screaming buy but macro factors and ubsequent algorithm trading drives price and trumps fundamentals occasionally.....until they don't. That's when the news is such that there are few technical/engineering challenges remaining and the path to production is clear and short.

This is also I think when there may be a bid from Glencore, as once cash begins to flow this will bootstrap to a much higher valuation and likely pay dividends close to the current market cap.

So C123 keep harping on as there are traders and longer term investors and each to their own view.

I'll be buying more of these as the year goes on.

Believe it was a slip of the tongue by Paul in his interview but interesting BRV has quoted as stated,

“So, a PHENOMENAL well for us in terms of our expectations pre-drill, far out-weighed what we actually ended up with.” as he contradicts the above misstep by saying it far exceeds expectations at 44m.

It gave me pause for thought a few weeks ago when initially dipping a toe but happier with risk reward now.

Still would like to know a bit more around timelines but some info maybe is not possible to release or they are waiting for a big bang.

Wondering others thoughts on timing of next drill results. I was thinking around 1st/2nd week in Sept....

On the tube on Thursday there was an advert for a Titanasaurus exhibition. Gave me a chuckle

Good luck with that caobtrarian, I'd be very surprised to see it hit 100p again. My entry point was 90 and at 100p I'd be in the market again for many more.

The story drives the SP more as it drives the volume. Market drives sectoral selling has been the issue due to China woes.

With work 60% complete and first production in Q1'24 this will generate significant free cash flow with Glencore as a reserve off taker.