Member Info for InJamesweTrust

BRV

Excellent post, swabbing isn't the last option. Other options extend the timelines but when revenue flows from T&T then it reduces the risk of a placing being required.

As you say there remains risks as nothing is ever a slam dunk. Having Zenith in place while not cheap I think should markedly improve the options analysis which alas I think was lacking a little with just Lonny and Paul (experienced as they are).

I wasn't aware Sefton had passed and condolences to his family. Furthrr my sincere apologies if he is the partner of HL as that is a link I was entirely unaware of and would never seek to make light of or otherwise be disdainful of someone's passing and their family's grief.

Sefton82 seems strangely missing also.

Colin

It's negative because you can't polish a turd.

3 years ago people on here were coining the phrase or blowing the doors off. 3 years ago did you really expect to be still here today.

3 months ago were you eager to here that the flow wasn't where they wanted so they were going to swab in order to improve.

14 months ago - did you think you'd have to wait until now for the Sept 23 SJ results only to be told now you'll have to wait until we can swab the well.

There is a reason for the negativity.

I'm not saying it hasn't flowed but don't think it is materially commercial above the current MCAP right now.

MOU-5 and the sudden presence and talking up of Helium is concerning. Not doing SJ or testing flow on MOU-4 first makes it something of a hail mary. Perhaps it is the intention to measure flow and communication between zones after the well.

I'd said last week there was c.£2.3m I think in cash which isn't a million miles off and that with items in warehouse drill could be done for the cash on hand.

PG seems to be indicating release of guarantee funds will be needed to fund some ops but MOU-5 is funded. If it slips much past end Jan then for each month it increases likelihood of funding being constrained.

Note there is little from GRH2+ ---- as a big promoter of the success case it is interesting to know if he remains GRH2+ and intends to remain so and has the same faith he had prior to this interview.

Personally, PG looked quite nervous. He is notoriously hard to work with and he and Lonnh seem to have clearly clashed and Lonny has left as it has proven difficult through SJ to get the gas flowing.

With Lonnys departure there are no dissenting voices on exec for drilling/testing ops so PG has a free hand. Wonder how Lonny felt about the results and prospects for stimulating.

Keith

After waiting 2 months to establish pressure and concluding it isn't going to rise further conventionally, there is a need to swab to see if this releases pressure from the well.

It may be routine but it is probably the final option without a sidetrack or new drill for which I don't think there is funding currently (but T&T could perhaps fund medium term with 6 months production).

Final one from me for today

One drill is not going to prove up 5.9TCF

So either the CNG is proven (but the pressure hasn't built up sufficiently so needs stimulated) or there will be a placing.

If MOU-5 drill is a success then such placing could be at a premium but it is sailing very close to the wind.

Just as a reminder, the 5.9TCF is from Scorpion geoscience, a company with no website. It is an ITR not a CPR.

In terms of scale there are other companies that should drill within 6 months with comparable potential but better risk profiles.

It is good to balance risk between opportunities but I'll be selling down some here to reposition elsewhere.

PG seems a little bit like he is howling at the moon, we have gas i promise just believe me and buy it - Flow is for retail dummies you big corporates know its there.

Just as a reminder, the 5.9TCF is from Scorpion geoscience, a company with no website. It is an ITR not a CPR.

In terms of scale there are other companies that should drill within 6 months with comparable potential but better risk profiles.

It is good to balance risk between opportunities but I'll be selling down some here to reposition elsewhere.

PG seems a little bit like he

J

so clearly paul alludes to his famous impatience being the reason for lonny getting the bullet.

random old boy also posted that m&a of cove ++ proportions in 2024 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 with lots of nice rockets. i'd say that is now highly unlikely.

the focus very much on mou-5 it seems and mou-3 only incidentally mentioned. seems stimulation is needed to make it flow - remember last week lots of people shouting me down for fud and lack of positivity.

he says t&t is the safety net and 6 weeks ago started to ramp up t&t - so clearly the safety net is needed.

i know there is also ireland but there remains a freat deal of political risk but ford alludes to being happy to wait which is fair enough as each to their own.

for me, the last 12-18 months has been a **** show. for the money ****ed away on sandjetting (x2) and standard perforation i'm sure a side track could have been drilled with different mud mix and better analysis would have demonstrated the need for this.

running the business to a budget is all well and good but it can lead to crap decision making and value destruction in the short term.

note there was no mention of sj workover for mou-4 while they wait for swabbing of mou-3.

grh says it will all occur together - will if you **** it up enough to when you run out of cash and then chuck a hail mary drill in to the mix it all has to happen at the same time.

So clearly

People have also previously stated having enough info to set tour hair on fire and been very sure there will be M&A in '24.

Wonder if they are still so sure if M&A in '24

Ford

That is errant nonsense. The company does not have inexhaustible cash. Hence, the more delays there are or problems arise the greater the level of dilution that occurs or the smaller the eventually prize because of negative news.

I'm still in the money also but concerned by the lower highs and lower lows currently being set and the potential negative news this is possibly a harbinger of.

My experience is shouting SELL however it is a risk investment to generate Alpha so one expects the Beta to be higher also. I don't wish for that to be exacerbated by management actions and lack of communication or lack of focus as has been th3 case in the past.

InTHeGo

I did read it and am appreciative for BRV producing the summary (which I should also have said so my bad) but really, mgmt has proven they have barely got the bandwidth to run with Guercif and have missed deadlines left right and centre and now decided they don't even need to give one - just something woolly about testing will take as long as we like.

I've no desire to hear yet more jam tomorrow nonsense I want to hear about the asset we should have known flow test results on more than a year ago.

The money wasted in the last year (some spent wisely some wasted) could have employed much extra resource to accelerate progress.

Focus and deliver- it is what mgmt teams are paid for.

Billy

If kind of like him to focus in the assets he has instead of incurring costly delays through a lack of focus. Guercif has taken him 7 years to drill and begin flow tests - I've no interest in hanging around to see if he can do the same in Tunisia.

We don't know if Guercif Mk1 has any value yet so mk2 makes no difference to me.

Porters

The irony is when you started suggesting it wasn't funded, it probably was but the delay in getting Sandjet underway and beginning MOU-5 has seen the G&A shrink available cash where it would now be quite tight to fund it and keep the lights on.

However, although stating keen to drill in Jan-25 it isn't a firm commitment and the company is funded without an emergency raise for current ops next 13 months.

Pareto

To be clear, I'm not suggesting they are running out of funds more that it may be possible to fund MOU-5 from existing cash resources.

Bold

I'm not suggesting that for a second, I'm talking about the cash and costs. I've managed multiple businesses through distressed restructuring to conserve cashflow and ensure ongoing solvency.

If cash is $3.9m after Sandjet but before Zenith - G&A has likely dropped with Lonnys departure which id guess was cash neutral. With a declining day rate on SV-101 and many long lead items already ordered for a putative May'24 drill I think remaining cost for MOU-5 is below $3.5m by a material amount.

With $100k a month M&A post Lonny they probably have a few months M&A, funding for Zenith and possibly funding for MOU-5 while waiting for T&T to produce cash positive flows.

Bold

With £4.3m cash and c.$1.7m spend once you convert currency it leaves c.£3.0m cash. The MOU-5 drill is proposed to cost around

T&T spend will be negligible and may even be cash positive if there is small production.

The MOU-5 well is forecast at $3.5m although that may be slightly less as demand for services has fallen with oil prices as reported by Schlunberger in their results.

£3m cash is equivalent to $3.9m

Additionally, I'd imagine with recent events the day rate for the SV-101 has dropped significantly and the well can possibly be drilled cheaper than envisaged.