RE: Innis Trinity3 May 2019 16:23
Bamps21 - I’m not expecting PRD to exercise the buy out option and short term expectations for the CO2 project are relatively modest so I’m not expecting vast cash movement in CERP direction for a long time but if it takes off CERP stand to benefit longer term.
CERP have to allow PRD to continue the project as it’s a contractual obligation. In the meantime I’m surprised that LK has been unable to make an announcement about the Innis Trinity IPSC which expires shortly. I understand it’s normal to commence renewal negotiations around 2 years before expiry and that Petrotrin/ Heritage are usually happy to allow roll over if the contract has been well managed.
Looking at the PRD CPR for IT I notice there were substantial minimum drill obligations outstanding and it seems PRD were optimistic that they would be satisfied by the CO2 project - hopefully that’s the case but it seems odd that Heritage haven’t squared all this away yet bearing in mind the cash to be expended on drilling imminently.
It seems that the IT concession is up there for LK to lose and I can’t help thinking that LK is not playing a diplomatic blinder at this time by giving the impression that oil production in Trinidad is barely profitable and that he prefers opportunities elsewhere.
To quote from Oscar ‘ to lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose both looks like carelessness ‘ - LK lost out on the Spanish concession, he was undiplomatic when he became frustrated, who knows if there was ever a chance for him there - he has a good chance of a roll over on IT but he’s behind on minimum well obligations, which has cash implications for CERP.
He also has minimum drill obligations for South Erin - that drill is still outstanding.
This quarterly reporting is fine if he’s going to give shareholders a good briefing but this contraction of production is a new theme which raises many questions particularly when the cash fund is diminishing at a worrying rate. The take over of SD involved assuming more admin expenses - if those new assets are not producing significant oil it is a concern.