Member Info for Iknownuffin

Mano - this information is false

Reality unless living near and can verify ——-

Short answer: No — that specific claim (a current live blockade in Phulbari with paramilitary forces holding off protesters and only activists reporting it) is not verified by reliable evidence as of today.

What you’re seeing looks like a classic case of social-media reporting outrunning actual confirmed news.

Here’s what we can fact-check right now.

⸻

1) Is Bangladesh tense right now?

Yes — very tense nationally, but that part is real and reported by mainstream international media.

• Bangladesh is heading into a 2026 election amid widespread political violence and instability 

• The interim government has struggled to maintain law and order and has detained political opponents 

• Just days ago (6 Feb 2026) there were clashes between protesters and police in Dhaka, with tear gas, water cannons and injuries 

So protests and unrest in Bangladesh generally → true.

⸻

2) But is there a confirmed Phulbari blockade today?

This is the important bit:

➡ I cannot find any credible, dated reporting (Reuters, BBC, Al-Jazeera, major Bangladeshi outlets) confirming a current Phulbari siege or highway standoff.

What does exist:

• Historical protests in the Phulbari region (it has a long mining conflict history)

• Previous road blockades in other districts

• National election-related unrest

What does not exist:

• Verified reports (today or yesterday) of a paramilitary confrontation specifically at Phulbari

• Any confirmed casualties, curfew, or army deployment there

If something like that were happening at the scale described, it would almost certainly appear in:

Reuters / AP / Al-Jazeera / BBC Bangla within hours.

Right now — it hasn’t.

For Trojan 🫡

Short answer: No — that’s not really accurate.

It mixes a few half-truths with a misunderstanding of how NATO and Ukraine funding actually works. I’ll break it down clearly, because this subject gets very muddled online.

⸻

1) “US NATO forces and bases have no input on Ukraine”

Not quite.

It’s true that NATO (the alliance itself) is not officially fighting Russia in Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO member, so Article 5 (collective defence) does not apply.

However, that does not mean NATO infrastructure is irrelevant.

Here’s what actually happens:

• The US and other NATO countries train Ukrainian troops (mostly in Poland, Germany and the UK)

• NATO intelligence (satellite imagery, surveillance, targeting data) is shared

• Weapons are coordinated through NATO logistics hubs

• US European Command coordinates delivery routes and defensive planning

So NATO troops aren’t inside Ukraine firing weapons, but NATO systems, planning, and logistics absolutely affect the war.

You could describe it as: not direct combat, but very real involvement.

⸻

2) “The US spends 60% on NATO”

Also misleading.

There are two completely different things people confuse:

A) NATO budget

This is tiny — about €3–4 billion per year for running NATO headquarters, staff, communications etc.

The US pays roughly 16–22% of that.

Not 60%.

⸻

B) US defence spending

The US military budget is about $850+ billion per year.

This is not NATO money.

It pays for:

• US soldiers

• aircraft carriers

• submarines

• bases worldwide (Japan, Germany, Korea, etc.)

• nuclear weapons

• domestic defence industry jobs

America would spend most of this even if NATO didn’t exist — because it’s about being a global military power, not alliance fees.

The “US pays 60% of NATO” claim comes from a different metric:

America makes up about ~65–70% of the combined military spending of all NATO countries.

But that’s not a bill it pays to NATO — it’s just how big the US military is compared to others.

⸻

3) “Ukraine aid is free — we pay for it”

This one is the most misunderstood.

The US has approved roughly $170+ billion in support packages since 2022, but here’s the crucial detail:

A lot of it is not cash sent to Ukraine

Much of it works like this:

1. The US gives Ukraine old weapons from US stockpiles

(e.g., older Bradley IFVs, artillery shells, Stingers)

2. Then the US government pays American defence companies to replace them with new equipment.

So the money:

• stays largely inside the US economy

• goes to US factories and workers

• replenishes US arsenals

It’s closer to a domestic military procurement programme triggered by the war than handing Ukraine suitcases of money.

Only a portion is direct financial support to the Ukrainian government.

⸻

4) What the UK actually pays

The UK contribution is far smaller — roughly £12–13 billion total support since the invasion (military

In this instance the opposite is being pushed as “ fact “ .

Why AI posts like this appear

You’ve stumbled into a new problem hitting small-cap mining stocks:

AI traders + forums + social media are now producing “live geopolitical intelligence briefings” to front-run share prices.

Here’s what happens:

1. Someone believes approval is coming

2. They generate “on-the-ground reports”

3. Retail investors think the mine is imminent

4. The share price moves

As I’m the AI expert this weekend here is Chat GBT on the nonsense posted -

Short answer: treat that as unverified and probably exaggerated right now.

What you’ve pasted reads very much like an AI-synthesised situation report — the tone, structure, and the very specific timestamps (“11:15 AM”, “1:30 PM”) are classic of generated geopolitical briefings. The important thing is this:

➡️ If an event that serious were genuinely happening, it would already be dominating international news wires.

A violent confrontation involving police firing rubber bullets, multiple injuries, highway blockades and election instability in Bangladesh — especially tied to the Phulbari coal mine project — would immediately appear on:

• Reuters

• BBC World

• Al-Jazeera

• The Daily Star (Bangladesh’s main English newspaper)

As of now, there has not been widespread international confirmation of a “major security crisis today” on that scale.

“ If you invested say $12 trillion in russia back in jan 2022

4 years later,by currency devaluation....you will have lost around $5/7 trilllion“

The boring one sided version by clown himself - same applies to the US which would now be worth $8.5 - 9 trillion due to currency decline.

Thousands of messages pushing one narrative yet ironically posting to stop one sided propaganda 🤣🤣

It does make sense in the fact of “ crisis “ creates more chance of approval than change of government ( only due to historical goings on with P ).

Energy crisis along with economic crisis is certainly clear to see, exactly the reasons I could foresee a good few years ago. Thankfully I held 😁

Sorry was just bored so asked AI what it thought, did think it was extremely positive and very interesting.

Sorry if annoyed anyone here 👍

Will it happen -

My honest probability view

• Eventually approved (sometime in the long run): quite plausible

• Approved soon (1–3 years): uncertain / roughly coin-flip

• Approved on a predictable timetable: very unlikely

The key thing:

The obstacle has never been geology, money, or engineering.

It has always been political risk inside Bangladesh.

⸻

Why it hasn’t happened yet

Bangladesh governments already know the coal is there.

They’ve known for nearly two decades.

They don’t delay because they doubt the project.

They delay because approving it creates a domestic political event.

The shadow of the Phulbari protests of 2006 still matters. Any administration knows:

Approving the mine could trigger:

• relocation disputes

• student protests

• opposition mobilisation

So from a politician’s perspective:

No electricity = bad

Nationwide unrest = worse

Until those two risks flip, approval stays parked.

⸻

What would actually make them say yes

There are only three realistic triggers — and this is the part investors often miss:

1) A serious energy shortage

Not “tight supply”.

I mean rolling blackouts affecting industry and cities.

If factories shut and GDP is threatened, the political cost changes overnight. Governments can survive protests — they struggle to survive economic collapse.

This is the single most powerful catalyst.

⸻

2) A foreign currency crisis

Bangladesh imports LNG and coal. That drains dollars.

If reserves fall and they physically struggle to pay for fuel imports, a domestic coal mine suddenly becomes a national security asset, not an environmental debate.

At that moment, approval becomes much more likely.

⸻

3) A political window

Approvals like this usually happen:

• right after an election victory

• or during a strong majority government

Because that’s when leaders have the most political capital to absorb backlash.

⸻

So… do I think it will happen?

I’d phrase it like this:

I don’t think the project is dead.

I think it is waiting for a crisis.

Bangladesh will resist approving it for as long as it can.

But if the country reaches a point where electricity shortages threaten economic stability, the decision can change very quickly.

And if it changes, it won’t be gradual — it will be a cabinet-level decision and immediate repricing of the company.

4) Foreign currency crisis or severe blackouts

This is actually the real trigger.

Bangladesh imports fuel.

When reserves drop, electricity shortages become political danger.

If you start seeing:

• nationwide load shedding

• factory shutdowns

• IMF pressure

• emergency power purchasing

→ the probability of approval rises sharply.

Governments tolerate protests more than they tolerate cities without electricity.

⸻

5) A sudden high-level committee or “policy review”

This is the classic pre-approval step.

If the government announces something like:

“reviewing domestic coal mining policy”

That is huge.

They are creating legal cover so they can say:

“We didn’t approve a project — we changed national policy.”

That is usually the final administrative step before a mining agreement.

⸻

6) What the share price will probably do

Here’s the part many people misunderstand.

You will likely not get time to react.

It won’t go:

2p → 3p → 5p → 10p

It will more likely go:

2p → suspension → 20p+ on reopen

Because AIM suspends shares when a transformational agreement is announced.

So the big move happens to people already holding, not those waiting for confirmation.

⸻

The honest risk you need to accept

This is crucial.

GCM has existed for about 20 years and multiple Bangladeshi governments have considered the project.

So the real possibilities are:

• Approval during an energy crisis (explosive upside)

• Endless delay (most historically common outcome)

• Shareholder dilution while waiting

So it’s not really an investment thesis.

It’s a patience and timing thesis.

You don’t hold it because it’s safe.

You hold it because if approval happens, the valuation change is extreme compared to the current market cap.

Tell tale signs from GBT -

With GCM Resources plc you usually don’t get a polite build-up before the big move.

The rerate won’t come from a drilling result or quarterly report — it will come from a government decision in Bangladesh.

But governments don’t wake up one morning and approve a mine.

They prepare the ground politically first — and that creates detectable signals.

Below are the real “tell-tales”. If 3–4 of these start appearing together, that’s when the risk/reward changes dramatically.

⸻

1) The language changes (this is the biggest one)

Watch Bangladeshi energy ministry statements.

Right now they normally say:

“renewables”, “imported LNG”, “power diversification”.

The moment you start hearing:

• “energy security”

• “domestic fuel”

• “strategic coal reserve”

• “reduce foreign currency outflow”

— that is not random wording.

That is how a government prepares the public for coal.

Approval of Phulbari can only happen after the narrative changes from environment → national survival.

This has happened before in other countries right before coal approvals.

⸻

2) State media starts discussing open-pit mining

This one is incredibly important.

If Bangladeshi newspapers or TV begin publishing:

• academic articles

• interviews with engineers

• pieces explaining how open-pit mining works safely

That is not journalism.

That is permission building.

After the Phulbari protests of 2006, no government will approve the mine without first softening public opinion.

When you see professors and former officials suddenly defending coal mining → you are getting close.

⸻

3) China appears — quietly

You won’t see “GCM approval”.

Instead you’ll see:

• Chinese state engineering firms

• MoUs on mining cooperation

• infrastructure finance discussions

Why this matters:

Bangladesh cannot approve Phulbari unless someone is ready to build it immediately.

China is one of the very few who would.

So the market often misses this — but mining approvals in developing countries almost always follow a financing partner appearing first.

Talking about 5x, 10x, even more.

And honestly — those big moves are not crazy if approval happens.

Because the mine would be worth vastly more than the company’s current market cap.

But here’s the important bit:

⸻

The risk most investors misunderstand

GCM’s real risk is not failure.

It’s time.

You could be right…

…and still make no money for 5–10 years.

Many AIM investors get trapped because:

• The project is valuable

• The government keeps “almost” approving

• Placings dilute shareholders

So the company survives, but shareholders get diluted waiting.

This stock has already done that cycle multiple times over two decades.

⸻

My honest view

GCM is not a normal investment.

It’s closer to:

a political decision wager disguised as a mining share.

If Bangladesh hits a severe power crisis → approval becomes very possible.

If not → it can drift forever.

So the real question is not geology, or coal price.

It is:

“Will a Bangladeshi government decide that electricity shortages are a bigger political risk than protests?”

The day that answer becomes yes, the share price won’t gently rise — it will gap violently.

Enjoyed Chat GBT response -

You’re talking about GCM Resources plc — the AIM-listed company behind the Phulbari coal project in Bangladesh.

And basically the entire share price story comes down to one single event:

Will the Bangladesh government formally approve the Phulbari open-pit coal mine?

Everything else (placings, spikes, rumours, directors buying shares) is noise.

⸻

First — why the share price suddenly moves

GCM is a binary stock.

It is not really a mining company yet.

It is a permit-holding project developer.

Right now the company:

• has no producing mine

• no operating revenue

• survives mainly on fundraising and speculation

So the market doesn’t price it on earnings.

It prices it on probability of approval.

Every time Bangladesh mentions:

• energy shortages

• blackouts

• importing coal costs

• reducing LNG imports

…GCM spikes.

Because Phulbari is one of the largest undeveloped coal deposits in Asia.

⸻

Why the project keeps almost happening (but never does)

Here’s the honest history in plain English.

Bangladesh needs power. Fast.

But Phulbari has 3 political problems:

1) It’s an open-pit mine

That means relocating villages and farmland.

And in Bangladesh, land displacement is politically explosive.

This goes back to protests and deaths during the Phulbari protests of 2006 — and that event still affects politicians today. No government wants to trigger that again unless the country is desperate.

⸻

2) Coal is politically sensitive internationally

Bangladesh relies heavily on:

• World Bank influence

• IMF lending

• foreign development funding

Open-pit coal mining = international pressure.

So governments delay it… not reject it.

That distinction is very important for the share price.

⸻

3) But here’s the big one (this is why traders buy it)

Bangladesh is running out of energy options.

They:

• import coal

• import LNG

• suffer blackouts

• burn foreign currency reserves

Phulbari would give them domestic fuel for decades.

So economically → YES

Politically → dangerous

That’s why the share price keeps resurrecting every few years.

⸻

So what are the actual chances?

Here is the realistic probability (not hype):

Rejection permanently: low

Continued delay: high

Sudden approval during energy crisis: very real

The approval, if it comes, won’t come slowly.

It will come like this:

One government announcement → cabinet decision → mining agreement

And the market will reprice it in days, not months.

This is why it behaves like a lottery ticket.

⸻

Where could the share price go?

Now we talk numbers — but realistically.

Right now the market values GCM as:

“Probably never, but maybe someday.”

If Bangladesh formally signs a mining development agreement, the company instantly changes from:

speculation → asset valuation

Analysts who have looked at the coal resource value generall

Derampers are of an awful standard turning up here I must say 🤦‍♂️

“ Live price falling under 8p now“

Quick we need to seeeeeeellllllllllll 🤣

“ Yheap people buying on the ramp, few days will collapse again, nothing will happen for the next year even if government wants to mine it's Bangladesh wait a few years before even getting the go ahead loL”

Yeah you have said twice today 🤣

What’s up ? The missus doesn’t listen to you either 🤷‍♂️

“ Gcm has to be the biggest con trader share ever. Its either up 50 % or down 50%“

Or you are rubbish at buying & selling fella 👍🤣

“ Another pump and dump session,

As always like I say come back in two weeks and this will be at 6p again 😂“

Well of course, many political parties have announced they will use the country’s own coal 🤣

Nice to see Hairy boy still here, I’m sure giving us all wonderful insights into what he says is golden 🤣

Sadly for us all, he isn’t on the frontline anywhere 😢

Always hope 😁