Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Morning Westie, I had considered cutting my losses on a many occasions with AFC but felt the product the company were developing was strong (and still do) and the hydrogen power market will be huge. It was taking ages to get the tech right and a final product signed off for commercialisation. With no revenue these companies just dilute and dilute to keep the lights on, you see it so often on aim - look at FUM, 20 years on AIM and still no revenue from a product they have developed. Always going to be the next Viagra (and still might be) but painful for investors to sit out. I had bailed on a few stocks prior to AFC and was nursing big losses so I was prepared to change tack and sit it out, though clearly not for long enough. I needed some money at the time which was my catalyst to sell when I did. As you say investors circumstances are all different.
The fundamentals at EML all appear very strong, low cost, high margin, 2 year build to revenue, close to port, no aquifers to contend with, shallow ore body, stable country, huge product requirements, the list is pretty long. Great experience in the management team bodes we’ll too.
I like your analogy of the government kicking themselves in the nuts - eloquently put. All the very best, idg69
Cheers Westie, I am quite optimistic on this one. I don't like the ESIA delay, it's frustrating, but I can't see the government tanking such a big opportunity whilst they are trying to promote the country as a place to come and do business. Once we have ESIA approval finance will be quick on it's heels, both could be announced together - what a day that would be.
My reason for optimism is, back in 2016 I started investing in AFC at 22p and kept buying more until it bottomed out at just over 3p in April 2019. I ended up with a 9p average and was still 66% down and feeling glum. A little news flow came along and talks of commercialisation and it started to rise and rise some more. I cashed out at 12p with an OK profit having been under water for 3.5 years. It went on to peak at 80p at the end of 2020 from a low of 3.25p and I could have paid my mortgage off with the profit if I'd just been brave and held. It has pulled back significantly to 32p and a MC of 238m today. The financials for AFC are not a patch on what EML could be. We are only at 67m today. My little tale of AFC demonstrates that big gains can happen and in a relatively short space of time and a lot of that was on hype, not solid financial fundamentals which is what we have with EML. I've seen silly gains with lesser businesses so that gives me optimism when it comes to EML. I also think the world markets for Potash are not going to cool anytime soon. I hope my optimism pays off for us all in the coming months/years.
Thanks for the various replies to my question, many interesting points raised. I've been around for 18 months with EML starting a position at 5.5p. I'm both positive and patient if not a little disappointed we haven't had the ESIA approval (as everyone here is) I've just topped up again around the 7p mark and happy to wait for news. EML are 25% of my current portfolio and happy with this.
With a potential 4bn NAV (based on lower Potash prices than today) I think this will spike to 25-35p on ESIA approval and 50-60p on completion of finance (dependent on equity/debt split). I also think it will then drift back whilst the construction of the plant commences (with a few spikes as off take agreements are announced) before another hike -75p - £1 on completion/production and revenues start rolling in. Who knows we could even see dividends in 3-5 years?
These are just my predictions - would be nice to think
EML currently sat around the 66m market cap mark. Anyone have any predictions as to what the MC will rise to if and when the ESIA approval is received? Then what it could be on agreement of finance package? and finally on mine opening and production/revenue getting underway? Do current shareholders believe we will get taken out before production commences? or will the current BoD take this all the way to production?
Couldn't agree more. Though no firm date was set/given for receiving the ESIA approval, my understanding was that it was 'expected' by the end of the 3rd quarter of 2021. We're now 10 months on and not a whisper despite the word imminent being banded around. I was pleased to hear of the reduced water usage requirements in the recent RNS and I'm sure this can only have a positive impact on the decision to award the ESIA.
Thanks RWT2 for posting the link, I'll give it a look over at bedtime - might help me nod off.
13thmonkey - "Small and artisanal farms won't cause untold environmental damage. Stop exaggerating, it doesn't help."
What planet are you living on? You've been watching too much Countryfile on the BBC. Livestock (beef, lamb, pork and poultry) and dairy farming contribute hugely to environmental damage and river pollution. I thought as a society we'd got past questioning this. I live in the heart of a very rural and livestock intensive area (also an AONB) and our local rivers and streams are a polluted soup as a result of farming waste run off and my village is only 13 miles downstream from the head of the river. I also accept water companies dumping sewage is a massive contributory factor.
I agree with RWT2's comment - There is no reason to believe conventional farming is going down the pan any time soon.
but let's not be under any illusion they aren't contributing hugely to a great deal of environmental damage. And that's before the animal welfare/cruelty aspects of livestock farming.
Artisanal dairy farming in small rural areas may continue for longer (doing more untold environmental damage) but the big industrial farming practices will be disbanded and displaced by PF faster than many people imagine. Just my opinion though and based on nothing more than a hunch.
I’m pleased with todays RNS. Another new company in our portfolio and pleased it’s predominantly a PF one too. PF being closer to commercialisation than CA with hopefully less regulatory hurdles to leapfrog.
At the end of July, cell-based meat company SuperMeat announced a partnership with Migros, Switzerland’s largest retail supermarket chain and leading meat manufacturer.
According to the announcement, the two companies signed a memorandum of understanding to accelerate the production and distribution of cell-cultured meat on a commercial scale. As part of the partnership, Migros will also invest in SuperMeat.
Considering Migros’ work in retail and food service, SuperMeat believes Migros is strongly positioned to understand consumer needs for its cell-based meat and propose products that will match the needs of European customers.
The announcement continues SuperMeat’s effort to form a range of partnerships to accelerate the scaling of its cell-based chicken meat.
In March 2022, SuperMeat announced a strategic partnership with Japanese food and biotech corporate Ajinomoto to establish a viable supply chain platform for the cell-based meat industry.
At the same time, SuperMeat also announced a partnership with European poultry giant PHW Group to be one of the first companies to manufacture and distribute cell-cultured meat on a large scale.
More recently, SuperMeat partnered with biotech company Thermo Fisher Scientific to set up the world’s largest open high-throughput screening system for cell-based meat production components in June.
Beyond the partnership, Migros plans to continue supporting the cellular agriculture field. In September 2021, alongside Buhler and Givaudan, Migros announced the Cultured Food Innovation Hub to develop cellular agriculture products in Switzerland.
A couple more weeks to wait hopefully - boy I wish that was true. I don't mind the waiting it's the not knowing the decision. This will tank without the ESIA approval. I'm sure needing less reliance on fresh water will go some way to getting approval.
My speculation as follows. Maybe a little more news in the media recently may have brought new investors to ANIC. Could be those bailing out of crypto and social media looking for a safer haven for future growth. I'm also listening to a lot of debates about future food security and how new tech good be the answer. Could be a host of reasons and some we're not privvy to. Whatever the reason for the rise I'm happy it's happening. Would welcome a rise back over 25p and beyond. Still think our golden years are 5-10 years from now but happy to hold and top up when funds allow.
https://vegconomist.com/cultivated-cell-cultured-biotechnology/scifi-foods-cost-reduction-cultivated-beef/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter
This is the kind of progress we need to accelerate this industry towards commercialisation.
Strangely it doesn't appear to have done much damage to the share price though. You need to be in this for the long game 5-10 years. It's certainly not a get rich quick share. Though dropping from 32p to 16p it could be a get poor quick share depending on your entry price. I'm still happy to be here but wished I'd started my investing in 2020 and not 2021.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDlyLPh_Qxo
George references Solar Foods in this discussion and the rise of PF in the global food supply chain. It's a very interesting listen - I hope you all agree. The more people of prominence in the media discuss this tech the quicker the investment and roll out should happen.
I'll keep you company MAZK, how's the ice cream sales coming along and the milk vending machine? Hope you're keeping well and your head above water in these turbulent and expensive times. Very little if any news flow from ANIC for a while. With 21 companies in the portfolio I thought we would have a raft of regular news. After the flurries of excitement last year and the rise up to 32p we seem to have found a new trading level around the NPV of 15-16p. I'm not coming across much Cell Ag news in the wider media at the moment either. I'll go hunting to see what I can find and post a few stories to pep up this board. Wishing you well idg69
Couldn't believe my ears yesterday evening when the BBC news reported that due to high fertilizer prices, British cereal farmers are going to cut back on high yield wheats for human consumption and switch to low grade grains for animal feeds. Please god (if there is one) I hope this news report was incorrect.
You couldn't make this stuff up, let's stop growing foods for humans (which is kind of a priority right now) and grow food to feed animals so we can then abuse, slaughter and eat them at a calorie in calorie out ratio of anything between approx 16:1 to 40:1 (for beef). And in the process contribute massively to our own health issues, further compound environmental damage and increase GHG emissions. Without a massive shift in societal behaviour and changes in our dietary intake we are not going to reverse many of the big issues the world faces today. Many would already say we have gone past our 'tipping point' and it's only damage limitation from here on.
Our children and grandchildren will look back on our generation and think we were a bunch of balm pots for doing what we do. "This World (is going up in flames) and nobody wants to take the blame" - Charles Bradley.
I've got my glass half empty trousers on today. Please respond with waves of positivity or shout me down accordingly.
Thanks for posting. Just popped up on my Google news feed this morning. I believe the industry is facing a little headwind right now from a regulatory and VC perspective. We need some more countries to give approval and then the money will start flowing back into the sector. Very much a 5-10 year investment play and not one to watch daily. I believe ANIC will do well from the Precision Fermentation companies and the alt materials companies long before the Cell Ag boys start to take off. We’ve certainly come off the boil since May and November last year. I never bought for a fast buck so I can live with the dips. Would like to see a little more news from our portfolio companies as to how they are progressing or a general ANIC newsletter every 6 months to keep us all posted on progress within the portfolio.
Morning mazk, I agree, I don’t think the fun and games has really started yet. Wait until the autumn when the central heating goes back on and energy prices go up again, that combined with rising food prices and shortages is really going to put the big squeeze on many/most households. It’s a perfect storm brewing. I’m normally quite an optimistic person but not right now. I’m holding some cash back at the moment as I predict a rainy day on the horizon and don’t want everything tied up in medium to long term stocks right now. I’m confident that Anic will come good but I don’t see any significant growth in the next 12-18 months whilst the world is in the turmoil it’s in. Then again Blue Nalu could ipo next week and we could see a rise (but i don’t think it will)
Unfortunately any food shortages in the next 2-5 years are not going to be offset by any meaningful volume in either precision fermentation or cellular agriculture. We are going to be reliant on traditional animal agriculture for some time. I do think PF will impact the dairy and egg protein industry first. I'm not aware of any reasonable commercialisation in any areas of PF and certainly not in CA at the moment.
I also think there will be a short term increase in stock prices of traditional agriculture as people have to start paying the true cost of what they eat. Food has probably been too cheap for too long with big government subsidies helping to keep prices cheap.