Member Info for idg69

I refuse to sell too though I’m now back under water a little. Let’s see what we open at tomorrow morning and how the week pans out. Could this be our breakthrough week or will we slip further. I don’t think GC is a turnip at all. I think he’s a top operational player but not sure what sort of CEO material he is, time will tell. He seems a stand up honest guy and comes across trustworthy to me.

What a god awful day today has become. My portfolio is taking a right pasting. The BoD really need to pull their finger out now and communicate to the shareholders what is going on. 10% down on no news is pretty bad going. A lot of very negative sentiment across many of the chat boards today.

DShox - I know it's not pretty at the moment but if you want to see how a share can slide and then burst into life take a look at the AFC 5 year chart. Take a look at the slide up to Oct 2019 and then how it came alive - no reason EML can't take off with some ESIA and finance news behind it. Just don't look at AFC from Jan 21 to the present day (that's not very pretty). You have to find positives somewhere. EML is sat on a billion £ asset if it can get all it's ducks lined up, with a current market cap of 57m we have a long way to go.

https://vegconomist.com/company-news/perfect-day-nth-onega/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter

Excellent news for our portfolio company

I had no idea Jim Mellon was involved in any way with EML. Is he a private share holder or does he have an exec or non exec role in the business? Coincidentally I’m also heavily invested in ANIC a Jim Mellon agrarian investment play and was also looking at BHL a lithium play. Wasn’t aware he had a tarnished reputation.

Just dropped to 6.4p Is it a case of darkest before the dawn? God I hope so. With the world market for fertiliser being as it is, I would have thought this project would have been fast tracked by all parties in the process. Why are the powers that be stalling on awarding the environmental approval when no objections/issues appear to have been raised?
Excuse my ignorance, but what are the consequences for not getting the ESIA before the month end?

I don’t believe this company is a joke at all. It’s an early stage investor in a sector that is in the very early stages of commercialisation. PF will be first out of the gates followed by Cell Ag 3-5 years down the line. I too am 40% down and it’s not pretty sat on big losses when cash is tight, but this is a long term investment and not a short term gamble and I accept that. I’d rather I’d held off 6 months before putting my money in as I could have bought a lot more shares for the same money but I didn’t and I have to accept that. I would still invest here today and would buy more if I had the funds but I don’t right now. We have 22 portfolio companies on the books so it’s not like we’ve put all our money on 1 horse, we have 22 in the stable with a good chance of a few winners. There’s a lot of progress being made in the industry, Perfect Day have just signed an agreement with Nestle to provide PF dairy for new product lines coming down the tubes, so big things are happening with big companies. Let’s review this in another 5 years and I’ll bet there are no glum faces on this board. Wishing you well idg69

Let' see where we are at by the month end. A lot can happen in a couple of weeks. I'm trying to remain positive despite the lack of news.

Another week on and no little red dot appears next to the RNS tab. The share price is holding up ok and can’t agree with the ‘constant slide’ comment, though it will slide with no news before the month end. The imminent comment 15 months ago was badly judged though.

Extra money in the Onego Bio coffers through grant funding is excellent news. I believe these are the types of company that will commercialise first and go on to be a big success. I suspect they will also get bought out by one of the big food conglomerates. Time will tell but good news for our portfolio.

On the subject of Big Jim, we could do with him either writing another book on this subject or getting out on the marketing trail drumming up some fresh interest in this sector. We also need positive and regular newsflow around some of our portfolio companies too to bring our NAV into the 20's. We're now over 50% down on our Nov 21 highs.

On the subject of price parity, we could get there quite quickly with PF in the dairy industry. Would be interesting to know what the 'true' cost of milk really is if you take away government subsidies, I imagine it's pretty high. PF also removes the high environmental costs, animal welfare issues, etc. etc. PF milk is also likely to be much a healthier option for human consumption having none of the 'nasties' associated with cows milk. (saturated fats, lactose, hormones, estrogen, etc) Milk costs to the consumer are well known to be artificially low, and as I mentioned in a previous post 87% of milk is water so you don't need to disrupt the whole product only a small percentage.

Meat production on the other hand through cellular agriculture could be 10-15 years away from price parity and you need to disrupt 100% of the product.

On the subject of Big Jim, we could do with him either writing another book on this subject or getting out on the marketing trail drumming up some fresh interest in this sector. We also need positive and regular newsflow around some of our portfolio companies too to bring our NAV into the 20's. We're now over 50% down on our Nov 21 highs.

On the subject of price parity, we could get there quite quickly with PF in the dairy industry. Would be interesting to know what the 'true' cost of milk really is if you take away government subsidies, I imagine it's pretty high. PF also removes the high environmental costs, animal welfare issues, etc. etc. PF milk is also likely to be much a healthier option for human consumption having none of the 'nasties' associated with cows milk. (saturated fats, lactose, hormones, estrogen, etc) Milk costs to the consumer are well known to be artificially low, and as I mentioned in a previous post 87% of milk is water so you don't need to disrupt the whole product only a small percentage.

Meat production on the other hand through cellular agriculture could be 10-15 years away from price parity and you need to disrupt 100% of the product.

Morning RWT2, a great deal can happen in the next 7 to 8 years. I don’t think traditional dairy will be extinct but it could be in its twilight years. Look at the rise of the iPhone/smartphone and how quickly that displaced the likes of Nokia and Motorola, it’s was pretty speedy once momentum took hold. Remember 87% of milk is water so you only have to disrupt a few % of that remaining 13% of the perceived good stuff with PF and things start to topple pretty quickly. ANIC is pretty dull at the moment with not much news flow on our portfolio companies but things can change pretty quickly once FDA approvals come on stream. No news on Blu Nalu for sometime either which surprises me as I thought big things would happen with them this year. This is a share for the bottom drawer if ever there was one, daily, weekly and monthly ups and downs shouldn’t concern us (though they do). Wishing you well.

The existing system needs to be maintained whilst the new PF technology comes on stream. It's the same with energy and transport, you can't just switch off oil/gas and petrol/diesel until the renewables and electric car infrastructure is up and running - it's a migration process and it will take time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r71yNnfY6ss

Check out Rethinking Humanity - a Film by RethinkX on YouTube. An excellent and very thought provoking piece.

Had a cracking dream last night, it was so realistic - I logged into my share dealing account and the EML price looking back at me was 50p. I woke this morning so disappointed ??

Fingers crossed we get some good news and soon.

Cheers Audible, funnily enough I watched that same interview myself yesterday. Reaffirmed why I invested with EML and brought with it a little ray of positivity to my thoughts around EML.

Morning Westie, I had considered cutting my losses on a many occasions with AFC but felt the product the company were developing was strong (and still do) and the hydrogen power market will be huge. It was taking ages to get the tech right and a final product signed off for commercialisation. With no revenue these companies just dilute and dilute to keep the lights on, you see it so often on aim - look at FUM, 20 years on AIM and still no revenue from a product they have developed. Always going to be the next Viagra (and still might be) but painful for investors to sit out. I had bailed on a few stocks prior to AFC and was nursing big losses so I was prepared to change tack and sit it out, though clearly not for long enough. I needed some money at the time which was my catalyst to sell when I did. As you say investors circumstances are all different.

The fundamentals at EML all appear very strong, low cost, high margin, 2 year build to revenue, close to port, no aquifers to contend with, shallow ore body, stable country, huge product requirements, the list is pretty long. Great experience in the management team bodes we’ll too.

I like your analogy of the government kicking themselves in the nuts - eloquently put. All the very best, idg69

Cheers Westie, I am quite optimistic on this one. I don't like the ESIA delay, it's frustrating, but I can't see the government tanking such a big opportunity whilst they are trying to promote the country as a place to come and do business. Once we have ESIA approval finance will be quick on it's heels, both could be announced together - what a day that would be.

My reason for optimism is, back in 2016 I started investing in AFC at 22p and kept buying more until it bottomed out at just over 3p in April 2019. I ended up with a 9p average and was still 66% down and feeling glum. A little news flow came along and talks of commercialisation and it started to rise and rise some more. I cashed out at 12p with an OK profit having been under water for 3.5 years. It went on to peak at 80p at the end of 2020 from a low of 3.25p and I could have paid my mortgage off with the profit if I'd just been brave and held. It has pulled back significantly to 32p and a MC of 238m today. The financials for AFC are not a patch on what EML could be. We are only at 67m today. My little tale of AFC demonstrates that big gains can happen and in a relatively short space of time and a lot of that was on hype, not solid financial fundamentals which is what we have with EML. I've seen silly gains with lesser businesses so that gives me optimism when it comes to EML. I also think the world markets for Potash are not going to cool anytime soon. I hope my optimism pays off for us all in the coming months/years.

Thanks for the various replies to my question, many interesting points raised. I've been around for 18 months with EML starting a position at 5.5p. I'm both positive and patient if not a little disappointed we haven't had the ESIA approval (as everyone here is) I've just topped up again around the 7p mark and happy to wait for news. EML are 25% of my current portfolio and happy with this.

With a potential 4bn NAV (based on lower Potash prices than today) I think this will spike to 25-35p on ESIA approval and 50-60p on completion of finance (dependent on equity/debt split). I also think it will then drift back whilst the construction of the plant commences (with a few spikes as off take agreements are announced) before another hike -75p - £1 on completion/production and revenues start rolling in. Who knows we could even see dividends in 3-5 years?

These are just my predictions - would be nice to think

EML currently sat around the 66m market cap mark. Anyone have any predictions as to what the MC will rise to if and when the ESIA approval is received? Then what it could be on agreement of finance package? and finally on mine opening and production/revenue getting underway? Do current shareholders believe we will get taken out before production commences? or will the current BoD take this all the way to production?