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Hi, Hargreaves Lansdown, Sharecast News for the day.

The below news explains why this is on the way up,

"At the other end of the pitch, annuities specialist Just Group romped higher after the news that private equity-backed peer Rothesay had agreed to buy £860m of lifetime mortgages from state-owned UK Asset Resolution.

Just had dropped over the last few months due to concerns that rules proposed by the Prudential Regulation Authority concerning the treatment of equity release mortgages could damage its capital position and force a cash call.

RBC said that the UK Asset Resolution sale "shows real confidence from a major bulk annuity writer that the PRA is not going to go with its most prudent scenario", and that it was "excellent news for Just Group".

Good article. And to reinforce this; no one with a declared position >0.5% is Shorting Kaz. It has been below £1 in the recent past but I do not think anyone believes that is going to happen again. So. all this talk of guessing up / down in the short term is simply wishful thinking for those waiting for a quick buck. In the medium to long term this is going to go to new heights.

"The allowance for mortgage risk included is equivalent to a 28% immediate house price fall together with 0% house price growth thereafter. This is equivalent to a 1.7% fall in house prices every year for the remainder of the life of our mortgage book. Even when this extreme scenario is modelled it takes a very long time for any meaningful shortfalls to emerge. The cumulative NNEG shortfalls in the Just Retirement Limited portfolio after ten years would be just £69m from total expected redemptions of £2.5bn."

Thanks for this. Here it is. Interesting to note that a 28% House Price fall is already built in, with no growth indefinitely. If they really only have to raise £69m to fully cover themselves then what's all the fuss about. On this basis the shares are trading at about 1/3 their real value.

Interesting isn't it. No reason for such a fall especially as we are so close to the 20th. A last ditch attempt by the Shorters to get out cheap perhaps?? We have had a double bottom on this at 900. A double bottom is the mother of all Buy signals. No reason to sell, keep calm.

There is no news release or other information which provides any awareness regarding today's extreme SP fall.
Just Group mgt should put out a news release as to their current views with regard to the CP13/18 and the share price fall 10.09.18. Otherwise, are we to think that some of those selling today were "in the know".

Agree it is cheap. But with the PRA announcement a few months away I guess people are not willing to wait and think their money can do better elsewhere. Very little shorting on this too. 31st Dec is the implementation date; I think the result may be announced earlier. Whatever it is, can't see it genuinely valuing this stock at 75p.

On Friday 7th, Peel Hunt also reiterated it broker note with a Buy confirmation and target of 1600. At 5.00pm Friday someone bought 315000 shares (£3m). Likely a Shorter closing their position.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudential-regulation/publication/2018/solvency-ii-equity-release-mortgages

I've found out that the PRA consultation is 'Consultation 13/18' which is scheduled for implementation 31st Dec 2018. So, some time to wait. Should be an interesting ride until then.

There was also an article in 'Simply Wall St' on Friday which concluded that even before the results, Kier is a financially sound and well managed business. So if Shorters are still thinking this is another Carillion then it is now highly likely they are in for a big surprise on the 20th.

More Buys than Sells yet falling like a stone. Thought I done well getting this share at an average of 97p.

The sticking point for this share seems to be the waiting for the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) decision regarding the set aside capital requirement for this sort of business. The PRA was launched in July 2018. Does anyone have any idea how long such consultations take and when we might expect a decision?

Good news. But you really have to take these ratings with a pinch of salt. The ratings for this time last year, if they had been true, would have the SP at 500p today. Still I think this is a good medium term play that can net up to 50%+ in the next 12 months.

Amazing results …… and no change!!!!

Is the capital position really that much of a concern and/or is a House price crash a real expectation?

Such amazing results …. and it jumps a whopping 3%!!!

I really don't get the declared short level being over 10%. The half year results were great with a nod that it would get better going forward to 2019. They even said debt would be covered by EBITDA by June 2018. 90% of work for 2019 already in? So what's the risk? What is it in the up coming results the Shorters are expecting?? Have any of them got insider information? They can't all have it unless they are following someone's lead.

As you said f15jcm, this is very like PFC. A fundamentally sound company. I too saw that in PFC and made some money. I see it here in Kier.

Interestingly, no one with a declared Short position >0.5% is Shorting Kaz. Explains a lot doesn't it; in that the current 52 week low is mainly sentiment based with the copper price thrown in for good measure. So, we are just waiting for some good news and/or for Trumpton to stop talking tough with China.

In the case of Kier the question is going to be; can the Shorters hold their nerve rather than the Share Holders. The first Shorter to break will be the one to gain the advantage. This will be interesting. This is going to be an interesting ride for the next two weeks.

Big drop today due to Bloomberg article appearing at 12.12pm today. Basically the argument is, Shorters wish that Kier is going to be like Carillion. Shorters now at 4 year high of 10.9% of Shares.
In reality to me it smacks of sheer desperation by the Shorters who have influenced the release (pushed out) this story. With just over 2 weeks to go for the annual results to be released the Shorters are starting to feel the squeeze. With the dividend likely to be worth up to 50p per share, they are going to need a substantial SP fall just to break even on this. If the results are in line with expectations or better, then their losses may also be hit by a SP rise. Personally, I can't see the results being poor. So unless they have insider information they are likely to lose on this one. The 20th will tell.