Member Info for icemax

Fair post Madmaxium, and it's a understandable assumption / thesis for those new to the company to suggest that all of the negativity is from burnt fingers. For the record, I profited handsomely from BPC just prior to its merger and the creation of CEG, which I think was just rewards for having followed bpc/ceg for more than 10 years.

But whether those here have been (repeatedly) burnt or else simply enjoy following the company's spin, they'll be negative on the company for very sound, rational reasons, and because they know what has played out before and where the company is now.

I do actually think this share could be a good trade at some point, once more is known about the status of the litigation, as there's nothing like a smell of a one-off big drill to get the punters and traders in. (Ignore all the work on the nodding donkeys, as CEG and its predecessor have been spinning that line since they started).

But that possible big drill - or even a sniff at it - is way far away on the horizon, and in the meantime the pattern of RNSs over the past 6 weeks is following the well worn path of reducing the overhang in order to line up fresh finance (aka subscription to the brokers at reduced price, to flip)

The current situation here is that the pump and dump has been a failed attempt. In part that's because folks are buying into the massive overhang. So you need to ask yourself whether twitter boys can get the volume up enough for the wider PI base to join in the pump, and whether they are still pumping because they believe enough volume can move the inertia of the overhang, or whether they are simply underwater themselves and need an exit point.

Not saying it's not a worth a small gamble on a spike from, say, a positive litigation news or some news about more bucket shop mates buying in. But anyone buying in for anything more than a pump and dump spike (say, positive litigation news) knows nothing about this company.

For somebody who will now be underwater, he ain't half paddling away!

Let's hope there's no holes in their buckets, then. Nice flipping price if you can get it.

Quite self-explanatory without plenty of brackets. Would be great to see your workings showing how the share is undervalued. Especially interested to know how you've managed to get a transparent, coherent view on the firms outstanding debts and liabilities - because no-one here has seen them.

Aside the fact that SWS is simply a dummy's guide and not to be taken seriously, let's take a peek.

Challenger Energy Group (CEG) Risk Checks - Simply Wall Street. My comments in brackets.

Fail - Is their share price liquid and stable? Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Fail - Have shareholders been diluted over the past year? Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year

Fail - Do they have sufficient financial data available? Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old

Fail - Do they have meaningful levels of revenue? Does not have meaningful revenue

Fail - Do they have a meaningful market capitalization? Does not have a meaningful market cap (£11M)

Pass - Are they forecast to achieve profitability? They are forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years [Yes of course, this has been the line every year...]

Pass - Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow? Earnings are forecast to grow by an average of 121.8% per year for the next 3 years [Of course they are, Eytan told us so!]

Pass - Is their dividend sustainable? They do not pay a dividend [I love this one - they have 'sustained' not paying a dividend for ever, so that's a pass then].

Pass - Are there any concerning recent events? No concerning events detected [PDR litigation anyone?].

Simply wall street, simply stunning.

the pump and dump is going well, then.

Seems to be some hefty selling in the background, not yet reported. Hopefully, not drill-related.

Anybody else who's already registered and not seeing the meeting in the diary?

Re the research note, it placed 10/18p unrisked/risked on a net of 3.6 mmboe.

I would have liked more information about the secondary targets, but sounds like we didn't hit the jackpot.

yeh, in fairness, we've seen quite a number of transactions that look like transfers of some kind, and we know that ordinarily such a trade would knock the SP sideways. If it was a more 'normal' sell down we'd see tranches instead.

The news can't be too far off now.

Clearly the person who's just dumped 120k's worth doesn't share your confidence in the drill.

God have mersey on all who sail on her.

We've had this with the leader who goes by the name that cannot be mentioned otherwise the post is deleted. I am now beginning to think I was wrong here, and that there are indeed 'hidden' forces at work after all.

Another 10 share trades today, at this rate the overhang will be here this time next year.

A fair number of us I would say. Those that expressed an opinion about when it was good to buy but who when sold looked to counter the rampers, not out of desire to get in again at a cheaper price or to short. No, not necessarily altruistic, just a dislike of rampers. We of course got shouted down and ridiculed.

My bank balance is still laughing.

is it the dates?

Have I made a mistake then? I thought he previously held 5.5%

We have our seller.

FWIW, Auctus have released an update. Can be very variable these reports, and seem to reflect the reporting integrity of the company being reported on. I think in the case of LBE they are reporting conservatively, which is what I like to see.

They have current core NAV at 29/41p (risked, unrisked) based on cash/rebates and current knowns around EV. They estimate 18-39p for the Kveikje Injectite shallow and a possible 60p for the deep.

The nominal value of shares is simply a notional value for accounting purposes - it has no relationship with the placing price or the share price. At current volume it will only take a year or so for the overhang to clear....tic tock.

...wave of micro-purchases at .011p. MMs must be pooping their pants with what they are holding in the face of the amount of shares soon to fully hit the market.