Member Info for icemax

What's probably not coming is a transparent set of accounts this week, but we can hope.

@EOA. LMAO.

No debt?

"Company to enter Q2 2022 substantially debt free".

Question is, how much debt, how much liabilities.

Disappointed that there's nothing here around the suggested 'strategy revision'. Also, is anybody else picking up that they seem to be managing our expectations around EV?

Signs are that a main investor is continuing to off-load.

There's very little to feel encouraged about.

what's happening with CEG at the moment?

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We are waiting on the hope that the delayed financials get reported by the end of week, and that there is full transparency over existing debt and financing, including a contingency plan for paying off litigation. As for any far off future work, it's whether they can raise any financing once they have stabilised the books. Good for a punt once we know the company can survive and/or we know how they intend to raise finance for any future work, but not until then.

Your understanding of the current financial picture is very much wishful thinking.

Auctus update

• The Oswig exploration well encountered large volumes of gas and condensate volumes in place in the Tarbert formation with an excellent correlation to the nearby Tune field. • While the presence of hydrocarbons in the deeper Ness formation is inconclusive at this well location, the overall in-place volume encountered by the well is higher than the pre-drill best case expectation.
• We believe this is likely due to a combination of the oil water contact potentially being encountered deeper than expected (implying that a larger proportion of the structure is filled with hydrocarbons) and the hydrocarbon type (more liquids).
• The decision to drill a sidetrack and to perform a DST to confirm the well productivity is likely due to formation damage, which is relatively common due to drilling procedures for HP/HT wells. We see this as a positive indication of what has been encountered so far and the additional activity will take ~6 weeks and will cost ~£5 mm net to Longboat (71.5% of this amount will be refunded by the government).
• Oswig had a pre-drill gross unrisked mean resource of 93 mmboe (~19 mmboe net to Longboat) making it one of the largest gas prospects being tested in Norway this year. Pending further details on volume and the results of the well test, we are increasing our estimated chance of success for the well from 36% to 50%. We increase our target price from £1.25/sh to £1.40/sh.

What next?
Longboat will report its 1H22 results on Monday. We anticipate further details on the balance sheet position and information on the commercialization of the Kveikje discovery. The test result of Oswig will probably be available in November (unrisked NAV of £1.02/sh/ReNAV of £0.51/sh). A rig has also now been booked for the Velocette (26 mmboe prospective resources net to Longboat – unrisked NAV of £1.40/sh) which is expected to in 2H23.

Ok, I think I may have been wrong :-)

Not at all unusual at all for a sidetrack to be completed without an update, in fact I'd say it's a norm. Nor would I read anything into the RNS, it's simply playing things with a straight bat, and would otherwise be odd and without context if the rationale weren't provided. My money is on the sidetrack being underway, which makes me pessimistic tbh.

Hoping the half-yearly is released soon to see if there's any glimmer of hope around current strategy. The auctus report suggested it would be out this week. My worse investment, ever.

Not sure the broker notes are put on the site (could be wrong). But you can register to receive them.

That looks like a sell to me, going on the trades since.

From today's Auctus report

"What to expect at the 1H22 results next week: Longboat is expected to provide an update on its balance sheet position, that we believe will be stronger than we have forecast. The company will also provide further information on the commercialization of the Kveikje discovery. Kveikje is located within a possible are development cluster for Equinor and could be swapped for a producing asset. In light of the drilling results to date, we also believe that Longboat could refine its strategy."

What could increase the share price is two things 1. publication of the delayed accounts and 2. knowing the price of the next subscription raise. Assuming that subscription is sufficient to clear any debts and provide a modest headroom for selling the dream, then once placed it could be a good time to get back in for a decent pump n dump.

I'm guessing that most don't see the need, as it self-explanatory. Very low pre-tax profits from this area of the business, but hopefully enough to now pay for a financial auditor, and get the delayed accounts out.

Well done you - being able to buy at bid prices and sell at ask prices is just incredible.

I think the company would feel that there's a bit of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" in that view.

Going back 6 months people were quite vocal both about the lack of communication and the failure to promote the share. Seems to me the company has listened to that feedback.

The alternative would be silence, for which case you just know they'd be people complaining about the lack of communication and failure to publicise the share!

Quite impressive how you appeared to have bought at the lowest bid price and sold at the highest ask price. Are you an MM then? Equally impressive how you appear to have been stealth on this for months until your flurry of posts when the price was mid range of the fantastic spread you achieved for yourself.

If you buy some more now you could average down on your current losses.

Not only do we have the series of TR1s (interestingly, one or two based in Australia and with possible links to Bizzle) along with the RNS sales pitches, but quite unusually they have continued to pump the sales on their own twitter, in addition now to Arden. Suggests to me that they need to get another subscription out there pronto but the overhang and low volumes are key blockers.

Could be a double whammy if the litigation lands.

Quite clearly, it's not PI trades driving this down but IIs (obs. to include AXA) selling off. Quite possibly we are being caught up in a general risk off / margin call for all II's. I'm in the camp that we ain't seen nothing yet in the market.

All about balanced risk and outcomes.
They probably hold Kistos, lol

Financial accounts due about now.