Wyckoff Market Cycle + "Cathy" affect continues!11 Sep 2022 20:39
I will try to explain how share price moves and where we are going next week. This is just my view.
You see the news we had last week is permeant i.e., a new Chief Scientific Officer and a new Non-Executive Director. This news has created “positive expectation”. We are due news on two of our major legacy drugs, VAL 201 + VAL 301. This is a start of a much bigger re-rate that will continue until we get the news on VAL 201. We have spent nine long weeks in an “accumulation phase” and we are now at the start of “mark-up phase”. This phase will have many mini re-accumulation phases or supply/demand balance areas. The upper phase is at >60p.
In a small company with < 10 employees like Valirx you add a heavy weight like Dr Catherine Stewart, it changes everything. If you want to grow a business exponentially you take on new employees like Cathy. Great people build great business! She will bring with her proven track record, strong work ethic, relentlessly high standards, big vision, profound knowledge and abundance of confidence/experience/contacts. We needed these rare precious leadership qualities to grow fast. I don’t think Cathy news has been fully priced in yet. Her CV speaks volume. Dr Catherine joined Valirx to make a profound difference in the health of men and women! I believe this!!
Look at a daily chart of Valirx and see how Valirx SP moves before a major news event. We were expecting positive news twice since Suzy took over and the SP moved up several folds before the news. This time it will be very different. We are very likely to get a deal for VAL 201. Based on the deal Suzy signs up we will either move much higher on the news or lower. This will happen on the day of the news. But the positive exception will start building up in the share price. Market will price in Suzy strong faith in TheoremRx now.
PAST MOVES: -
1) Start 7th Aug 2020: - SP moved from 7p to 73p = >1000%
2) Start 16th Aug 2021: - SP moved from 18p to 65p = >350%
3) Start 5th Sep 2022:- SP moved from 10.5p to XXp = XXX%
Its correct to say we don’t move in a straight line. We move from one supply area to next supply area. We were currently at start of a big “mark-up phase”. Looking at the chart I see us balancing between 20p/22p to 26p area without any news.
I was watching the tap (trades) last few days and I noticed that the demand > supply so we should continue to move higher in the early part of next week. In the past we have pierced the 200 DMA every time we got near it. This is currently sitting at 23p. So next level of resistance/supply is 26p. I expect us to trade at standard deviation of +3 = 26p.
If there is news event i.e. VAL 301 or new directors buying then I expect us to move to 35p. Otherwise, we could spend the next few or several days re-accumulating between 20p/22p to 26p zone. Once we have done enough business in this area, we will move to next supply area at 30p to 35p until we
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