Member Info for ICB888

Malcy has fleetingly mentioned AEX in his write up today on SCIR who also put the Ruvuma news in an RNS:
“ Scirocco Energy
Scirocco has provided the following operations update on the Ruvuma PSA in Tanzania.

· APT has received the first batch of field seismic data last week and expects to have processed and interpreted sufficient data to confirm the final drilling location of the Chikumbi-1 (“CH-1”) well before the end of August. Field acquisition continues to complete the 338km2 3D seismic programme.

· APT continues to advance the planning and prepare the final programme for the CH-1 well and reports that the Operator continues to plan and prepare for the drilling of the well in due course.

Further to the Company’s announcement on 12 July 2022, the Company is in active discussions with TPDC on its position regarding TPDC’s statutory right of first refusal with respect to the Company’s divestment of its 25% interest in the Ruvuma asset. The Company is also maintaining a dialogue with ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited on its intention to exercise its pre-emption right and will update the market in due course with regard to the status of the respective discussions.

Under the circumstances this is probably best put under the heading for information only but for Scirocco, Aminex and Wentworth it is worth watching in various guises.”

We know this from the May Results RNS:
“ Project finance discussions are underway with potential providers of project finance who have access to Condor's data room under confidentiality agreements”. That could also involve preliminary bid discussions under the auspices of finance. It could be that Mark is compelled to observe radio silence. It’s the BFS and finance news(plus a rise in the gold price) that will move the sp not the mill at this time.

This looks like a good investment and exactly the sort of investment FFWD/SEED was set up to make.
We should note this comment in the RNS:
“ Given the breadth of management at CFG and the quantum of Mr McDermott's ownership at 11.9%, the Company acknowledges the potential for conflicts of interests in making this investment. Whilst not a transaction that falls within AIM Rule 13, the SEED Board, excluding Mr McDermott, have taken equivalent measures to carefully review the terms of the funding round, the business plan of CFG and the management team assembled by Mr Neves, and have concluded that the terms of the investment are fair and reasonable, are within the scope investment policy of the Company and represent an appropriate investment opportunity for SEED.

Jim Mellon, a 6.95% SEED shareholder and a director of Agronomics, has been appointed as Co-Chairman of CFG in conjunction with this recent funding”
We have invested alongside Agronomics which has a market cap of £176 million. This is how SEED has always operated and was set up to operate because you can only get to invest in pre IPO companies because of contacts. Many of FFWD’s investments were/are in companies where Jim Mellon or Lorne Abony had much larger stakes than SEED in the investments.

Phulbari
Thank you for posting that article. You are well known for posting that Phulbari will never happen on Hasina’s watch. Are you changing your view now the demand for coal is at record levels. It does increasingly seem that it would be economically negligent not to approve Phulbari. Economic negligence can very quickly turn to political suicide as we have seen in Sri Lanka. The Lady’s not for turning doesn’t always end well.

Derampers out in force is usually a sign of impending good news as they have one last attempt to push the sp down. The “ I have a large holding but here is a list of potential problems and risks” are always amusing. It is an insult to peoples intelligence that someone would trash the share they claim to be invested in. They are normally traders and should be ignored.

When you consider how much the price of coal has increased in the last year and continues to increase it makes any dilution raised by the derampers on the other bb irrelevant. Look at TGA a South African coal producer which 1 year ago was £2 per share and is now £14 per share. The value of Phulbari coal is mind boggling and it is increasingly difficult to see why Bangladesh does not start mining as an economic and political imperative.
Currently rising on the Leaderboard Up 13.4% on volume of 930000.

Pleased to see that Simon Thompson remains very positive about CHAR and issues another Buy recommendation. Published on the website after close of trading so should give the shares a boost in the morning.

Mark’s next presentation is in Beaver Creek at a Precious Metals Summit on the 13th September followed by another one in the US a few days later. He is definitely going to need the BFS for those . I hope we don’t have to wait until then because that’s well into Q3. I take your point about the quiet summer which is why I thought this week was the last chance before September. As you say let’s see, but it was encouraging to see better volume today after what has been a very slow 6 weeks.

Rising into the close Up 4.7%.

Some decent trades this afternoon as we go Up 1.2% on volume of 560000 which is the highest since 15th June.

These are Marks final words in the results RNS on 13th May:
“ The Feasibility Study on La India open pit is almost complete, the formal announcement will probably take us into Q3. It will put the Company in a position to pursue various project financing alternatives, some of which have already been initiated."
The use of “probably take us into Q3” suggests to me early in Q3. I am therefore hoping we will get an RNS this week by end of July. As he also says some finance initiatives have already been initiated they will have spent at least 3 months on those initiatives. There must be a reasonable possibility that Mark will release finance details at the same time as the bfs or very quickly thereafter (or a bid in my ideal scenario).

The sp is showing as 18.3 last nights close. There have been 18 trades for a volume of 180000 all shown as sells even though a number are buys. CHAR prices to AT trades and because there haven’t been any yet the price appears not to have changed. Very misleading information.

ElectricLion
You are of course correct that price sensitive information must be released asap however when you know their are 14 elements that interact with each other that all have to be finalised it is not too difficult to delay that process and stay within the rules. I agree with you that it is close as the last presentation said all elements were now complete apart from the financial model. It is also true that the BFS unblocks the path to finance or sale, however we have been told that finance talks have been taking place along side the bfs so we are not slowing that process greatly.
I would speculate that some of the extra work that has delayed the bfs was due to questions asked by parties in the data room when CNR thought they were ready to issue some months ago. Issuing a very high standard bfs should pay dividends in relation to the ultimate value of Condor. I hope the bfs will lead to a quick sale at a very good price based on the value of our gold and hence many multiples of our current sp.

The Precious Metals and Mining Index is down 3.8% today. It has fallen from 20000 in January to 8944. So much as it doesn’t suit your narrative CNR’s performance is due to the sector it’s in rather than CNR specific factors.
I do however think that Mark is overdue now with an RNS regarding the BFS but perhaps he doesn’t want to release it into such poor market sentiment.

Obviously nothing to get excited about but Guild is now Up 21.8% at 2.65p and moving rapidly Up the Leaderboard.

I think your logic is very sound Professional. I think Farm Out news will arrive very soon or we will get other news. Jimmy commented on Saturday “ Certainly chariot is definitely a takeover target after the recent cpr and a market cap of less than £200 million and no debt.” Bidders will need to act quickly now the CPR has been released. A Farm Out, Financing or a bid could land any day and the sp will move considerably higher very quickly on any of those events particularly if it’s a bid.

Blu button,
Are you suggesting that news about Guild should not be mentioned on the Blu bb?
You continually moan about the lack of news about BLU’s investments but GILD is listed and hence its news and the value of BLU’s investment is fully visible on a daily basis. BLU has invested £700000 in GILD and I would think that at GILD’s current sp we are about break even. So if GILD moves to 4p that would give us £700000 profit with an investment worth £1.4 million. If it goes back to the IPO price of 8p it would be worth £2.8 million. As it’s listed we could sell some or all of it at any time if BLU needs cash.
GILD’s progress is very relevant to BLU shareholders.

Guild have an RNS this morning announcing another sponsorship deal following on from the Coke deal last week. This should hopefully continue the rerate of the share price.

Gold having dropped down to 1670 a few days ago has recovered to 1730 as we end the week. Most Gold companies are suffering sp weakness like Condor and it would be helpful if the gold price starts rising, which one would expect in the current global economic situation.

Guild building on yesterdays gain Up 10.3% at 2.15p on volume of 12 million.