$40 per barrel scenario for oil 28 Sep 2024 10:01
The Bahamas here we come.
A supply war could break out among oil producers, sending prices down to as low as $40 a barrel, says Tamas Varna of oil broker PVM.
Crude oil prices are on a downward trend in international markets. According to experts, the expectation that Libya and OPEC+ member producers will increase production was effective in this decline.
Oil broker PVM, on the other hand, believes that possible disagreements among OPEC+ members could increase the downward pressure on oil prices. The scenario behind this view is the additional supply of 180,000 barrels per day that will be created by reversing the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day planned between December 2024 and November 2025.
A note sent to customers by PVM’s Tamas Varga includes a more radical scenario for the future course of oil:
“Perhaps more importantly, is this a sign of a supply war inside and outside the organization? If the answer is yes, a painful decline to $40/barrel cannot be ruled out.”