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High technical level? To me it's further delays. The EWT barely gets a mention in favour of more logging. When's the EWT going to start then, end April...or May/June/July?

No quotes from the boys this time, I wonder why?

Yes that's true but we did have the RNS in December which did show progress was made.

"Deliberations have continued and work on the award is advancing. The Tribunal will revert to the Parties in the early part of 2021 with any final questions it might have or, if none, the declaration of the closure of the proceedings as per ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1)."

Therefore, either the 120 days countdown has started or they might be awaiting responses to final questions. The word final suggesting that this step in the process shouldn't go around in circles for another 12 months.

Godders - I can't see how the legal award would not occur until 2022. I have the same feeling about the false dawn's but surely the 120 day countdown will start soon unless it's started already. The process is designed not to be one which can be prolonged indefinitely so I'm confident we'll get a result in 2021, fairly confident in a result in H1.

Also, tanker movement imply production at the high end could be up to 3,500 - 4,400 bopd in year one. Considering locals would be highly sensitive to this kind of thing, as it's forecast to happen over 25 years, they would want a more secure number before raising the hackles of the neighbours.

Yes and a bit sloppy about flaring - it implies flaring is a standard operating procedure rather than just during the well tests. You don't make much money if you burn your product on site!

It still baffles me that Riathlin have done this when supposedly, just a month or two away, we should know how well the wells flow and with what proportion of gas and oil. In addition, they'd know if gas lift was required, how many tankers or if a pipeline is needed etc. Can anyone explain the advantage to me or is it just filling time?

There's no need to blame spivs, your previous comments say it all really. A slow moving r3 redrill (costing many millions more than planned) and limited developments elsewhere means there's not too much incoming to get excited about.

Maybe r3 outperforms expectations, which would give more cash but deplete the field more rapidly. Hardly a massively value adding event.

I would be interested to hear what you get back from the company. Last time I contacted them about r3 I got a very comprehensive answer through a phonecall from someone very high up in the company. They must have plenty to say that can't be put in a report/RNS about their plans.

Thanks LeFlic - that was what sent me in a spin about units!
As far as I can see peak production is 52.13 MMCF/d and income is $4.55/MCF, OPEX is EUR10.1m.
Whirl all those around and you get revenue $86m, OPEX $8.57m. CAPEX unclear...

Doesn't feel too far our but I hope someone else has done some calcs too to check. DYOR

I hope you're right. I just can't understand if COVID is the reason why is it ok to start now but not last summer or 3 months ago? I'm sure the work can be do e safely and if people are coming from abroad for the work then why would it be any different next week?

The reason I'm concerned that it is related to the FDP is that it's described there as phase 1. Also curiously it has a 4 week testing period and the future wells each have a stinking 90 days per well (must be an error, surely). Further, it mentions the EA limit on the incinerator use is an overarching limitation on the site (as in, there is a cumulative amount of fuel burned/emissions and then they have to stop). And one last thing...it mentions that during the EWT liquids will be collected for tankering. However, I remember when the EWT was first paused it was due to the presence of liquids and the need to install an incinerator more capable of burning liquids. The whole thing is very confusing.

Are we 100% sure the EWT has not been defeated until planning permission is gained for the larger development?
Reading that consultation website it isn't clear that there will be testing prior to the development is given persmission. Presumably the supposedly imminent EWT results would massively influence the plans and if a pipeline was needed...

Hi all,

I'm wondering if anyone would be willing to share their production, revenue and costs calcs for peoe like me who have got tied up in knots with the conversions?

I'm confused by gas when people only mention MMCF and boepd and convert between then, never mind introducing euros, gas values in mWh and production in Sm3! I've had a quick go and get 2.1 MMCF but I'm pretty sure that's way out. Any help would be appreciated.

Otherwise I'll try have a go later and share my workings here if I have enough confidence.

How will the B-1 test be complete by early April? They haven't got equipment on site yet.

I'm thinking it's because the two companies were too similar in size. That means a merger was the only option and maybe nobody wanted to be the junior party.

You have much more patience than I do Mbudgen. What do you mean believe what you will, did I state something incorrect?

I hope the 2 EWTs are incoming but who knows what other circumstance changes might pop up and delay things further. Excuse my cynicism, but I'll get excited once they we know at least 1 EWT has started.

For those knocking the pessimism of persimmon - here is an extract from an RNS on August 2019:
"On 17 June 2019, Reabold announced the successful appraisal of a discovery at West Newton, with both gas and liquid hydrocarbon volumes encountered. The Company is pleased to announce that Rathlin has today mobilised a service rig and associated testing equipment to the West Newton A site for perforation/completion of a select interval within the Kirkham Abbey conventional reservoir. Once the well test operations have commenced, they are anticipated to run over the next 4-8 weeks."

As we all know after that happened the EWT was paused there was talk of changing the testing equipment to deal with oil, then money was raised, another drill happened and more money was raised (IIRC). And yet we are still waiting on an EWT, never mind further drilling to fully prove up the area.

This company has been a story of moving the goalposts. I'm still in here to a low amount as I want to see the EWT results but I'll seriously be considering getting out. It's really been a test of patience on what was supposed to be a company with multiple opportunities and regular results of progress. Now we've all bets made on one asset which is painfully slow to get results for.

It's going to take some time to catch up on those arrears at this rate. At least they paid some I suppose.

There are 7,540,686 shares as of Dec 2020.
If the conversion is at £1.5, that's an extra 666,667 shares to RBD in addition to the current 34.9%.
In that scenario I get 40.2%.
If converted at £3.2 then I get 37.5%.

Please do your own calcs.

I also see it as an insurance policy having bet the farm on WN.
I don't think I'll stick after the FDP is submitted. £113m CAPEX for one well and if gas prices drop to 35p it all becomes a waste of time. I'm not saying I think gas will go that low, just emphasising that the CAPEX required for that amount of gas seems high.

It wasn't clear from the RNS, of RBD convert at £1.5 what % of the company would they own?

That's not the only thing that hasn't had an update. It is a bit of a shambles to not have mentioned the EWT. It should have been done in December.

Further:
When was the IMIC-1 flow test (due September 2020)?
When was IMIC-2 drilling (due Q3 2020)?
When was the Parts IM-2 well test (due H2 2020)?

At this rate I'll expect those 8 additional wells at WN to be drilled in about 2040.

The, quite positive, silver lining in all this is the share offer, even if it's at a discounted rate it is being offered to shareholders only. At least that's how I understand it.

If you can take advantage of it then you won't be diluted, the damage is already done from the drop to 22p. After all this is sorted then for sure PMO are in a much better place, even if we wouldn't have recognised it 1-2 months ago.

If I couldn't take advantage then I'd sell 1/2 to 2/3 of my shares ready to take advantage of the discounted offer when it comes in.

Just my 2p, and gla, DYOR.

Indeed Slift. At least Maris is here in time to throw some of his ideas into the mix for the 11th (or before of course as the completely banal RNSs have made out). I think previously we'd all resigned ourselves to 'Bev the mute' (nice one conkclo) twisting the knife further and extinguishing all hope on (or before) the 11th...

I hope he's got some good cheap ideas of how to squeeze some barrels out of these wells.