Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

I'm still dreaming too...maybe I'll leave half in for the vote. See what happens...at least it looks like ODDO will hoover up my shares if I do sell them!

Yep I'm thinking the same, I'm in no rush as I'll probably keep this investment in cash. However, I would probably get out before the vote lest I get stuck in for another month or two.

Just about OPHR, the timeline was:
31st Dec Medco announcement of potential aqusition
11th Jan Medco initial offer was 58p but reduced to 53.8p (on 20th Dec) due to oil price decline then to 48.5p
14th Jan OPHR reject offer at 48.5p as undervaluing OPHR
28th Jan extension of offer deadline, negotiating transaction at 55p
30th Jan Medco new offer 55p supported by board
8th Mar Coro unsolicited bid 40p + Coro shares
20th Mar Medco increase bid 57.5p
20th Mar Coro withdraw interest
25th Mar court meeting + GM votes
21st May completion of acquisition
22nd May cancellation of listing - presumably when the money was paid to shareholders

I'm pondering the same about when to sell.

I just had to look back at what happened at OPHR. They had the offer increased 5 days before the court meeting and GM for voting on the offer. At the point of the offer increase they increased the irrevocable undertakings from 0.14% (directors) to 18.73%. however, at that point Coro were also doing due diligence on a bid.

So Viaro do seem to be in a stronger position with more irrevocable undertakings and no apparent competing bidder. But the question is, is the price high enough to get sufficient votes?

So Bank of Montreal have brought shares and opened a short for over 2% at exactly the same price. What is the point of doing that?!

It does seem odd, but equally maybe it's worth it. I calculate about an 0.5% return for holding for 2/3 weeks...that's not the worst is it?
There is a risk of it falling through and the price dropping, equally a chance of a higher bid.

Not long to go now.

It does bring into question your rumour though, doesn't it?

Why would you expect a rise a day before a dividend is paid?

Maybe there would be a rise after dividends are paid if a proportionally large amount is reinvested. However, I'm yet to see that happen clearly distinct from the general 'noise' in the price.

Yes SMW US production seems stick at 11m, however they have brought back over half the 1m that was taken offline. Underlying decline rate for shale is high so I can see it being <10m by year end. Time will tell.

I also noted PMO stopped following oil recently, I think it's waiting for the outcome of the debt negotiations and to a lesser extent the shape and price of the rights issue. Personally, I hope they open it to all or just take more debt.

True shale numbers are hard to come by, but you can see weekly US production excluding Alaska. Which is still 2mbpd down on the peak.

As for the tankers they are significant, OPEC reports this if you're interested (not sure if that's every month or not) or there are other sources that report in the normal news. It's at historic highs and will take many months to deplete back to historic levels.

The build or reduction to oil in storage on land is almost irrelevant at the moment. The key measures at the moment are:
1. American (shale) production which is also published alongside the storage numbers but rarely quoted.
2. Oil storage at sea which, when the prices is right, will be transferred to storage on land.

If you're looking at annual statistics then don't forget COVID hasn't had a full year yet.

Thanks HH, that makes complete sense. Anything not in contact with the sea shouldn't be experiencing the cooling and therefore wouldn't require pigging.

ADUK - perhaps you can satisfy my curiosity as I'm interested in how these things work. If the logging only covers part of where oil flows, how does one 'pig' the remainder of the pipework, well head and well itself (and whatever else is left unpigged)? Or does the design just allow for wax and other deposition, if that's what it is that needs removing?

Does the GM vote need to occur before the 28 days are up? Either way I'd expect some communication this week as to the timeline for everything to occur.

Not an oiler but I'd understood that having 2 wells in different locations with ESPs gave plenty of flexibility. That flexibility allows you to change the predominant direction of flows in the fractures to your advantage.

As a potentially incorrect example, maybe if you preferentially pull a bit of flow, including the significant water flow, from 7z this significantly reduces the water migrating across the 6 well. Then 6 can have it's flowrate increased and continue drawing from a predominantly oil zone overalls increasing net production.

If I understand the Form 8.3s correctly there are a fair few organisations who have taken a few % directly or indirectly at around the offer price. I'm taking that as a signal that there is a possibility of an increased/higher offer.

Running out of time now though so I guess we'll know soon enough.

Bloobird, I agree about the lack of consideration of production/import. The other key measure of significance is the storage at sea, as this will be transferred to land storage eventually as it's much cheaper.
Fortunately the EIA do share the data you want, it's in the weekly report for those willing to read the full report/look at the excel sheets.

As they've stated they're working on setting a stable production rate and will inform us in a week or so. Considering that news is imminent, there's not much else they can do at the moment except complete that work diligently and then share the results through an RNS.

Exactly sparky - it doesn't say anything about not agreeing to an alternative bid.

It is all there on the website as someone posted. Quite incomprehensible to me but I can't see a scenario where someone would sign up to saying yes to one bid yet no to any other bid conceivable. I'd think you could only lock down the yes for current bid. Disallowing someone to agree to any other bid feels a bit anticompetitive and anti capitalist to me. Still, I defer to someone who knows more about the legalities. DYOR!