Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

It's true the decom liabilities should factor in. My guess is that AA predicts a suppressed oil price for the next few years. Meaning we have to spend quite a few £m to maintain production (especially considering the 2020 reduction of £100m), nevermind decom coming forward, where we don't have much margin above OPEX and more necessary baseline CAPEX to pay for it. Therefore the share price would likely stay where it was for a few years. Equally as implied in the statements from the company it seems the potential $1bn loan vaporised, maybe leaving only c.£100m to spend on assets/pay dividends, severely limiting expansion options.

Personally I'm a bit more bullish on oil price in 2021 and could have waited. But then I'm not the CEO or on the board!

Surely these shareholders would be happy to sell to the highest bidder?

Having started to read through the documents it does strike me what someone posted yesterday - Viaro are borrowing (from their parent) to buy RRE and will promptly pay back the loan with the cash in RRE.

If I was in control of another cash rich company, or one where I could secure cheap debt, then I'd be looking to make an offer too. Like has been mentioned, cash to run the company aside, the value of the assets are quite low.

I'm sticking around with most of my holding for a few weeks at least to see if something happens. I can't see it falling through (never say never) but there is the potential for another offer.

I've done a lot of filtering based on what's written on this board. I definitely recommend it, it saves a lot of time when catching up on the latest posts. Also, it doesn't make your blood boil as much.

It is a decent offer considering current price, however the cash out can't be ignored. I wonder if there will be another bidder.

Daltry - I noticed the same before, it seems the post count only updates at the end of the day.

I'm not sure if backdatig the purchase to 2019 would help as it isn't currently producing. If anything wouldn't more liabilities come along with the purchase?
Also, PMO have updated to say the first gas is delayed to Q2 2021. Still it looks like an interesting asset for AA to run the rule over, and fits with his declared interests.

Because that's what you do when you have no leverage, or at least aren't using it.

Swazzers, what you've said is quite absurd. The share price for all of the future was written at the time of floatation and could be predicted from TA? I don't believe that for one second.
I'm curious about the practice but it is a bit off putting when someone says they are right 85% of the time. If that's true, out your money where your mouth is and you'd be a billionaire by now.

The implication in the RNS of Dr Trice's resignation, as I read it at least, was that he had concentrated control over the technical decisions and communications. That power is now vested in a technical group. Therefore, I'm not convinced re-entering the well wasn't Trice's idea, as he was the one who brought it up in technical discussions twice (IIRC). I can't see how he was forced to do that considering his position in the company at that time, if he didn't believe in it as a plausible and good idea.

If I'm right about the CEO having this domination over the technical aspects of the company, including Edison reports and RNSs, then it means he was responsible for the very poor choices with respect to communications which I would imagine seriously upset shareholders.

My final thought for this message is that I feel Trice wanted to slowly increase flows to further learn about the characteristics of the wells. This being at odds again with shareholders as well as the boards plans to be able to fund increasing production and the repayment of the bond.

Just my 2penneth...

ADUK - thanks for your contributions over the years, which I've found very helpful.

Doesn't seem like a humble opinion at all!

In what scenario is oil at $25 for a prolonged period of time? I haven't heard any plausible ones. But of course if the oil price is massively suppressed then surprise, suprise a company that produces oil will suffer.

Considering the £/$ value of the assets it might be possible for a joint bid/partial bid considering they want rid of the assets.

Also, a somewhat unrelated question - are there any rules around requiring a suspension? Is it when a company elects to do a reverse takeover or something that dictates it?

Sasa, the only other similar companies I've seen are in Iraq and produce oil only. So a different beast in terms of product and security of income/production because of location.
SQZ and RRE are the winners for me!

Dross, not cross!

The dabbler, I used to feel the same as you about filtering people. However, I have changed my ways and can thoroughly recommend it. It's great for the blood pressure and saves time reading through the cross.

Mega, that's always the risk (company profits heading disproportionately to the creditors) when you can't pay off your debts by maturity. Especially when selling a product with a highly variable prices. However the CEO has negotiated good debt deals before and hopefully can do it again. If so then with a fair wind over the next few years we should see the back of a major part of this debt.

As it is already known when and how many new shared will be issued it'd be safe to assume this will mostly be priced in. What isn't is what ARCM will do and if/when they will close the rest of their short. Judging by their previous disclosures it may take quite a while before we're informed as to what they have done.

The RNS also mentions gas prices so it's almost certainly a bit more complex than just being triggered at PoO of $55.

It should trigger alarm bells when some scientist claims to be 99% confident of something. It should either be 99.9% or they don't yet know.

NewKOTB, maybe the 28% was including the additional cuts SA and Oman and UAE said they'd implement in June. That was >1mbopd.

Bandit - surely you acknowledge that in respect to buybacks the resulting share price isn't the only factor?
A key metric will be the dividend, which could be increase or would he cheaper to maintain with fewer shares in issue. In theory that should raise the share price, but not necessarily.