Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

The problem is the WN EWT has gone from being in progress to December to not being mentioned at all. The additional WN drills have gone from Q1 to H1.

Parta is expected in Q4 according to the leaked presentation (the same one that had Q1 for WN's additional wells). I feel that is next news which will tell us a lot about RBD being in control or over optimistic.

Cali has been pretty much devoid of any of the positive news signposted since about April this year. All we had was a lacklustre update on what had been produced. That was far away from what was telegraphed earlier; remember additional well, self funded drilling programme and a large well that had too much gas to be piped in (or something along those lines)? Regardless since the raise Cali's significance is pretty much what it tells us about how well S&S have managed expectations.

My feeling is we need some serious and clear timelines and plans now UJO have their money. Without that credibility, and share price, will be drifting away.

I dare say if XR were on these boards they be seriously wasting their time...and that's in the most sympathetic sense.
In my least sympathetic moments I'd say get over to China/India and change their ways!

Presumably those shares were the new ones?!

ADUK, I think you'd do well to write a memoir! According to the FT gritty ones are the hot publishing trend. Obviously oil rigs are less in vogue than the NHS or the legal system but still I'd read it and I'm sure many others would...otherwise these experiences will day be lost as the days of oil are gone and only robots are left to run and minimal drilling required in the world.

I've never understood the 30 day thing. Surely it just means they can't be like in the period preparing the annual report or something like that?

It can't be a prohibition on creating 'new' news because there are many things which are outside the control of the company. By extension the same goes for running the EWT within the next 30 days, a prohibition on that makes no sense as there was no inside information existing prior to the EWT being started.

Are Q3 results confirmed for Friday then?
If so, where?

It probably doesn't matter to the share price no, but it does matter to those individual PIs and they are mostly the people who post here!

I'm not bothered about moaning or others selling I'm just here to get others' thoughts and reflections in mine. Such that my decision making is improved. Now do tell, what is the next move then that we're waiting for? Is it EWT at WN in December?

PDMS, we know we can sell!
We're just saying the perceived risk has increased, based on management performance and poor communication.

S&S have done really well at getting hold of some assets and increasing their potential. However, thus far they are yet to implement part 2 of their plan and it's not yet clear when and how we'll get there with WN and what it'll look like in the end game. That's the asset that's most advanced and successful and valuable in the portfolio, at least according to S&S. Although, that's the one we've increased our proportion of yet the sp has dropped 1/3...so there is clear evidence that shareholders are worried and quite a few points as to why that might be the case.

Now where we might have stayed longer in this share we might reduce our holdings sooner (maybe after the next WN good news, who knows).

When we find out who actually bought into the raise we might be able to speculate a bit more about future raises. It's interesting to think, considering volume and sentiment since, who would have wanted such a large chunk of shares. Was it IIs who already held or was it new interest? I wonder if/when we'll find out...shouldn't really be private information as it was a deal with the company, not a trade between shareholders really.

Thanks JD for digging out the table.
What I find even more interesting is that the costs don't seem to cover the EWT of the drilled well. So surely the question to S&S should be - why not complete the EWT and increase value (so) further prior to the raise. What was the advantage of doing the raise before? I can only see that it diluted the incumbent shareholders, who already believed in the assets' value, more than was necessary. Unless they were worried that the first EWT would turn out to seem like bad news and they have confidence the new wells will make the asset look more valuable (and without the raise they'd never have been drilled).

ADUK,

As far as I understood the £24m was £16m for Rathlin and £1.95m for Danube. The 2.6bn placing shares generated this money.

The £7m equity swap would have involved the issuing of a further 780m shares. Those are not yet in existence. One worrying aspect was that those share holders had verbally agreed to the swap, so I'm not sure what changed.

That does mean there is £6m or so available to RBD.

I don't think you're deramping, those are sensible thoughts and I appreciate them. I have the same feeling about the WN situation, lots of confusion it suggests they don't really know what they're doing. I can't understand what has happened to the EWT which should really be getting ready to start soon and is probably the best next step to be taken.

Judging by all the other things that seem to be passing by unannounced I wouldn't expect any confirmation that the share swap ship has sailed. I'm assuming it's dead in the water.

But it was a late reported trade...
So are you saying:
You 100% believe the trades were all done at that moment?
You actually checked the bid and ask at 11.11am and remember what it was and when it changed during the day?

I am intrigued so to how you know it was a sell, genuinely. When I saw another company reporting each trade when it was buying back its own shared their reported time and number of shares never matched those reported and when attempting to match the known buys with the assumed buy/sell showed the accuracy was very poor (even with prices up and down throughout the day).

Obvious sell is a bit of a stretch, there's no way of us knowing if it was a buy or a sell, it was right on 9p!

No losses, DST string in place and BOP closed?
I.e. if testing is being undertaken then the test area is packed meaning no mud is lost.
But I'm no oil drilling expert.

Just to be clear - I didn't mean they directly advised they'd do long shut ins.

It's just the maths of my previous post which I take as at least giving plenty of headroom for that.

Slip it was merely the numbers in the Half Year Results.
Basically - full year guidance was 12.5kbopd from first oil. Where at that point the average was 14.1kbopd as of September as per the report. That includes the significant period where they had some issues with one of the lines to the wells.

Post that moment to the October offload production was still good (can't remember the number though) thanks to those on here producing details.

With all that it starts to look like they could probably support a month or so of zero production and still comfortably meet the 12.5kbopd guidance without sweating. It may equally mean that they planned some significant downtime all along and that's why they didn't increase the guidance at that point (which frustrated me a little).

SG, that's a good point about doing shut in tests:
We're almost 6 months after FOil so plenty of oil has been removed from the surrounding area.
They did advise that we shouldn't expect the same production rates to continue in Q4 (as in there could well have been significant planned shut ins in this period).

I was also wondering if they'd want to shut in during the WW tests...would that been helpful?

It could be true that things are ramping up and there's no need to RNS as they're on track. However, there were prior RNSs about progress so I'm expecting an RNS when everything is installed. I hope they don't leave it to Q3 results, they really should say something before one way or another (late or installed).

It is quite ambiguous, I read it as 2 RNSs though. Otherwise there's no need to mention "once testing commences", as clearly for well testing to complete it must have started at some point!