Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

I don't know which type of manipulation you mean, I took it to mean the wallstreetbets-esque ladder attacks, MMs etc. This company has a small mcap so it will be volatile, especially when the value of the company is based on unknowns which are hopefully soon to be more clear. Equally they could stay fairly unclear post-EWT which will be disappointing.

Nothing needs to be attributed to manipulation really. There's a lack of information and people speculate sympathetically or unsympathetically.
The history of the RBD share price isn't one of manipulation it has been good news followed by dilution - unless the dilution is the manipulation you talk about?

Also, imagine a different scenario where the shares consolidated in that period. Surely you wouldn't get the original number or shares just because you're were in limbo.
T+20 does seem quite excessive though!

When they say risk as %, do they mean chance of success (or 1-CoS)?

So you're saying the tests were a success and within a few days they put together a plannin application? This would have had to happen weeks ago.
Also your proposing they know the results of the well test but haven't shared them through RNS, which is highly suspect.

How does a planning application prove success? Flow results are coming soon, that will be the big news.

In the community consultation they already suggested they will drill a bunch of other wells to develop the site. The big question is how much will each flow and therefore will they be economic?

Do you mean the chemical mix of the gas? If so, I'd certainly expect so. Although they'll soon find outif the mix was good or bad.

I can't understand why the price isn't there already

As far as I remember they never said oil was burned or even implied it. I believe the only thing that has been referenced was condensate. Please correct me if I'm wrong though but the main possibility with WN is that it is gas + condensate (or similar).

The problem is that selling incurrs fees, and when you're talking about selling an equivalent amount to a dividend payment then the fees can be a non trivial proportion. Dividends in an ISA don't attract any fees or tax. I appreciate if you have loads of shares then it might not matter, but it can make a difference.

Where are you getting a $100m dividend from? The proposal is 2 x $25m dividends.

It's not a bad strategy. Although more likely to be a net zero sum game rather than win-win.

I think it's the lack of being able to say, tolerate or even discuss anything about the company that may be critical.

If anything Mitch was a bit too restrained with his comments. No mention of the economics of R3... I know he wouldn't know the complexity (read additional cost) in advance but is it safe to say this intervention is uneconomic? It's done now but was painfully expensive.

Let's hope the Columbus redrill goes well or we will be waiting till 1st of Jan for some good news.

Still it's good to have an update when one was needed.

I have it as spudded on 17/03/2021 + 70 days = 26/05/2021.
Not sure what's going on with R3...a bit worrying.

I think RNS is saying that the linear extrapolation Tedoby used to estimate the NPV10 at a lower gas price is incorrect as proven by RBDs own presentation which shows the relationship between NPV10 and gas price is not linear. If gas prices go down then the NPV10 of the asset decreases rapidly.

Just waiting for that new CPR, the RBD presentation says Q2 rather than the RNS which said April.

You're welcome.

This combined with the information about the new 2021 horizontal drill is what makes me concerned about the current wells. The horizontal drill will likely be targeted at the depth of those 'best' porosities. The quotes about "largest onshore find since...." are all about porosity assumptions across the field size not to do with largest production rates.

At the end of the day the additional drill is downside protection. Read into that what you will. DYOR and good luck.

From what I've read 10-25% is typical. See "Petroleum reservoir porosity versus depth: influence of geological age".

So the best porosities are decent. The next question is, what is the effective porosity (filled with oil and gas and not water or anything else), which will tell us the capacity of the reservoir. Also permeability and pressure are important after that to determine flow rate which is what the EWT will measure.

I'd imagine the Victory gas CPR will belatedly be issued before September too. It was expected end of April, and no further updates on that specific piece of work since that date was given in Jan.

Very positive, seems like they want to get moving on the assets quicky.

I thought the note on making production net zero interesting. Obviously that openes up a wedge of potential investors and funders. However, does it limit the assets they'd like to buy? I guess yes, but my real question is to what extent does it limit options, not all gas producers even are on remote controlled rigs!