Member Info for IAmNotAnAnalyst

Until we have the well test we don't know what will flow in any well.

If the existing wells flow very well then surely it goes without saying that an more optimally drilled well will flow better. The extrapolation is less risky in that scenario.

Thank you to the parody account owner - it's a first for me, so thanks for taking the time.

Please let the EWT start soon...

The new horizontal well should give better flows but does doing this suggest that the existing wells won't be commercial and only a new one will?

It would also explain the rush to do the CPR as soon as the EWTs are finished, so if flows aren't high enough RBD can say there's plenty down there and we need a well like the 2021 well to extract it effectively so don't worry.

Nov, I don't think we're too far apart on our assessment of the potential of WN/RBD. As you'd note from my posts I'm a little more pessimistic than you on the downside though. If the asset isn't commercial then I can see us down >60% the upside potential is multiples depending on how much it flows and what flows.

My pessimism is mostly because I've been here a long time and the original company proposal was to be in many moderately sized opportunities with the same risk/reward potential (i.e disproportionately to the upside). So my jaded ways are probably more because of how the investment case changed and I feel like I'm now gambling on one asset rather than taking multiple chances at good opportunities. They've tried to reverse this a little with the latest dilution and increase in exposure to Victory, but it was costly.

Nobody needs to make anything up to keep any narrative alive. Most of the things you criticise are plain as day in RNSs for anyone to out together.

I am invested, sorry your detective work is so off. Not overselling RBDs prospects could very well be money saving, we're (still) just waiting to find out aren't we?

PUTUP - I by no means saying I'm an expert but although I agree with your explanation there is a bit more to the story than that isn't there?

For example, investors evaluating a company on its dividend payed would value the company differently depending on what dividend is paid. In your scenario the company could pay a 0.1% or a 25% dividend and the result would be the same (in terms of company value) but in the real world that isn't true as company value is related to dividend policy.

Further, what about reinvestment of dividends? Even if that makes only a short term difference to the share price it would have some impact at the time the dividend is actually paid. This is true even if a small proportion of dividends are reinvested.

Finally, as much as I've seen the drops when going ex-div; over the time before that to the time after payment the share prices have so much variation in the meantime, it makes the discussion a bit meaningless!

No reason to feel shame & you?

Nov - would you want a good friend to tell you your exhaust pipe is about to drop off as you may not have noticed?

Does anything negative have an ulterior motive yet anything positive doesn't?

Believe me, I want to see the EWT done as much as you do. And I want it to be successful and plenty to oil and gas to flow.

Good point. I suppose if you sold the moment before going ex-div then it would be equivalent to taking the dividend. However, it does assume that nobody else reinvests the dividend (I think).

My comments reference their posts and 1 is about message board etiquette, 2 are about the company. Nothing is about the 'man' whoever they may be.

People manipulating the share price is a subject about the company, which I do not believe to be true to any significant extent.

As is the timeline following an RNS about WN, which has been done to death. Watts' interpretations of the RNS that we'd know anything useful 3 weeks after was optimistic but understandable considering the language used by the company. I then suggested a new date, one which may well be accurate for EWT results, considering we haven't started yet...

I'm not really sure what you mean. I am posting my thoughts on the company and I get unwarranted abuse. If you can't post freely about the company, what kind of message board is this.

Well I've just had a dig for value in your post history Watts. I picked up a few key points:
- you advise if people are abusive to report them - check, good advice, thanks
- you often claim manipulation and MMs keeping the share price down - the last resort of someone trying to convince people the share price is 'wrong' based on conspiracy
- a quote from 30th March about WN: "We should know what we have by April 22nd. Time to wake up the share price" - any update on that, maybe a revision to June 22nd?

It isn't the same and they didn't finish the thought I believe.

Presumably they meant you'd be in the same position if you sold now and reinvested the dividend, vs waiting for the dividend and keeping the money when paid.

Since they put all of the eggs in the WN basket I've been waiting for the EWT results. Once they are out I probably will sell and I'll wish all involved well. In the meantime you'll have to put up with me.

The bigger worry for me is not the inevitably delayed timelines on the well tests. It is they way they keep talking about additional drills, which makes me think the tests will be inconclusive and there won't be any sale of the asset until another year or more has passed.

The special Divi is the best thing GKP can do. If I had it my way they'd pay the profit as a dividend each time we get paid. Also with old capex as much as is possible. There must be some consequence of significantly worsening payment terms. It's that or we get some connected American/Chinese/Russian investees who might have a bit more leverage.

You're clearly not looking hard enough as your conspiracy radar is still way too sensitive! I think it is coincidence, do you really think someone would pay me to write messages like this?

I did say positive things about the company, but you seem over sensitive to any critique and can't see past that.

However, you accept the size of the asset is not certain, and equally the quality is uncertain and therefore it's value is uncertain. Hence the current share price. Nothing more needs to be said about your pie in the sky £200m figure. Maybe you're right, but it's by no means certain, and your analogue is a poor one because nothing is proven (a houses value can be relatively accurately estimated)... we're STILL dealing with an unknown quantity until the EWT results are generated and then released.

You said it yourself if your conspiracy is true then what I say isn't impacting the value of the asset - so how do you make sense of that? Maybe the simpler explanation is that I am who I say I am and you're just peeing into the wind again.

Wow detective Noveck that's amazing. The use of the word we in the context of people who wind you up means we're all in cahoots together. Do you enjoy endless conspiracy theories.

I never said you were claiming multibagging, if you read my words and take a breath you might understand that this was the explanation for why I share my views not why I bother responding to you.

There is nothing positive to say about RBD at the moment because of the snails pace of the EWT and the reliance on a single asset. I am pleased it is advancing but this is the thing many of us have been waiting for, for a long time. Waiting longer doesn't make the oil and gas in place larger, nor does it increase the chances of it being commerical. It merely depletes the morale and is very brutally a wasted investment thus far and lost gains from elsewhere. Anyone in here at the point the drills at WN were complete and wanting to stay would have believed the EWT results were just around the corner.

I also believe that all the other assets are attempted mitigation against WN failure to salvage the company if WN is not commercial. I really hope it is commercial but bluntly we just don't know yet if it will be. The plan for 10s of wells doesn't bode well for individual production rates nor for the amount of CAPEX required to develop. It all worries me but I just want to see the results.

And what are your thoughts on the prospects?

Haha, what a joke - "knowledgeable and serious investors". And anyone that doesn't think like you isn't?

Considering you can't stand any different views to your own I don't even understand why you're here, except to project onto others. And that is the thing that bothers me most here, I am invested and hope for success in WN but I'd hate for someone to stumble in here and read the messages of some on here screaming guaranteed multibagger etc. That is irresponsible and is why I post here my thoughts.

I've shared my thoughts in an honest way, so you can read them if you want. However, despite not caring about my motivations it seems you've already decided, incorrectly, what they are.

Have you considered the reason me and a few others are irritating is not because we're here to wind you up but there may be some good points in what were saying that you don't want to recognise. That's another game for you - try searching reflective genuinely why we make you so irritated? As that say more about you than it does me.

Thanks Jub...hopefully it will have some good info inside.

NoGood, I think you should take a hard look at yourself. Posting here, calling me names and then putting some lame boast about shorting Dax etc. We don't care about your choices outside of RBD. We're here to discuss the prospects of the company. If your reading of the market is as bad as your reading of my motivations then I'd stick to safer investments if I was you.

ManWell - my point was the timelines getting or steps required in the process not being mentioned. If anything you should be saying to RBD why not mention the logging that was always required and include it in your timelines. Although O&G timelines do slip, this company is by far my worst experience of this. If at work I just took everyone else's words for their timelines and passed them on I'd get criticised and rightly. Responsible management should be thinking at a higher level and managing expectations.