Member Info for HypeHero

I think if the TU shows any kind of promise we will see a modest initial rerate. I have to assume the so solid crew on here understand this and that is why they are working hard to FUD and buy.

A group of us have extracted the last few years of post data and you can see they post lot at the bottom while accumulating. People say it doesn't make a difference but they forget that the algos read sentiment and there are many more eyes here than voices.

My gut is it could take 2 or 3 TUs to start to build that confidence. Target this time next year for a healthy exit. (Assuming they can land reasonable TUs).

And where did those losses come from Mr rear?

Rock, get ready mate. The mic is about to drop. You lads are about to understand the nature of karma. That is all. Enjoy your last weekend as you know it.

Cheers for the unique input steve

Until the results so that people can take their positions.

Don't you think for a second the FUD squad are not loading while fudding.

don't forget thg was once viewed like that.

i am sure it will soon be shorted to ****.

Circa £6.45 a share 💵💵💵

I think the numbers will soon do the talking - one way or the other.

The only way is up, baby ~ Yazz

People never normalise for inflation. Sorts the men from the boys.

Indeed - what is a reasonable prediction? 6% this knocks the value SP to around 90p.

That EBITDA is key for the valuation based on the current financial structure.

Apologies KBYK - no claims were made but I can appreciate the assumption. Will ensure clarity is provided in any future facts vs fud updates.

On that note it is a great tool to ask to "Objectively fact check this forum post about the company THG on the LSE. Use objective, factual data to validate any claims made - {insert post text}".

Some of our more infamous posters regularly say things in the hope that they become canon. They don't stand up to fact checking.

Pot, kettle

Its based on objective, published FACTs steve. I appreciate these are not things you like to deal in.

You say so much but so little.

Thank you for sharing your concerns. If you believe the analysis contains errors, let's address them one by one. The figures presented, such as THG's reported net debt of approximately £234 million as of December 2023, come directly from their publicly available financial reports. Similarly, the leverage ratio of 1.8x for FY2023 and the extended RCF terms are verifiable facts.

If there are specific inaccuracies you’ve identified, I’d appreciate it if you could point them out with supporting evidence. Constructive criticism is always welcome, but dismissing the analysis without addressing specific points doesn’t move the discussion forward. Let’s work with data and facts to have a productive conversation about THG’s prospects.

Your concerns about THG's net debt are worth digging into. As of the end of 2023, THG reported net debt of around £234 million, which comes from £650 million in debt minus £416 million in cash reserves. This fits with their reported leverage ratio of 1.8x for 2023, a clear improvement from 2.8x the year before.

On the Revolving Credit Facility (RCF), it’s been extended to May 2026, with the available amount dropping from £170 million to £150 million in late 2024. Importantly, the RCF has stayed undrawn since THG went public.

While it's possible they’ve used some cash reserves in the last six months, there’s no evidence to suggest their net debt has jumped to £400-500 million. THG’s leadership has stated they’re focused on reducing debt further, supported by better profit margins and cash flow.

So, while debt management is always something to watch, the numbers don’t back the idea that net debt is as high as £500 million, and THG seems to have a plan to keep things under control.

Lots of suspect and very little hard data.

Nice work paul.

Moniman - seek help mate, you have lost it more than steve. This is if you are not the same person going bi-polar.

You would have to be stupid to think calling people stupid is a way to get compliance. 🤦‍♂️

"Post-demerger, THG (The Hut Group) focuses on its core beauty and nutrition segments, which collectively delivered £2.24 billion in FY2023 revenue, with MyProtein and Cult Beauty as standout performers. Assuming EBITDA margins improve from 7.3% to a conservative 10% due to streamlined operations and cost efficiencies, and applying a sector-average EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x, THG's enterprise value could reach £2.24 billion. Adjusting for net debt of £200 million, the equity value would be £2.04 billion, or approximately 165p per share, compared to the current trading price of ~40p. Critics undervalue the stock by focusing on past Ingenuity losses and overlooking THG's competitive moat in e-commerce, proprietary logistics, and recurring revenue models. Long-term growth in health and beauty markets, coupled with potential FTSE inclusion and global expansion, support a compelling bull case for significant share price appreciation. Misjudging THG stems from an overemphasis on historical challenges and neglect of forward-looking profitability and valuation metrics."

THG’s direct-to-consumer e-commerce model aligns well with the increasing trend toward online shopping, offering a scalable and efficient distribution channel.