The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Zaporozhye is to the southwest, all trains head west either southwest to the coast at Odesa, or west to Europe. I'm guessing if there's any getting out it'll be to the western border, and not through Odesa (or at least not for much longer).
I'd imagine after results on the 16th March IF and a big IF they don't hold on to capital until they know what's happening with Russian invasion. Which could either be all over by then, or just heating up. A lot can happen in 3 weeks.
He did 8 years ago, just needed a new pretext to invade further into Ukraine since the ceasefire, which he's managed/managing to fabricate.
He's got the pretext to help the "independent rebels" to roll in to the Donbass region and apply serious pressure to the foothold they made in 2014. I'm guessing to secure the 5 south and eastern regions to the Dnieper River. Having enough potential forces that if the Ukraine fight too hard then they'll take Kyiv from the north (also splitting forces away from the frontlines in the southeast). They want Ukraine to give them an excuse to take out the leadership, but at the same time take bites out of the country. A show of strength followed by a reactionary show of force if they fight back too hard.
I'd actually sold at 230p as with more research I came to this conclusion. Yes it was too soon, but I could see the bigger picture of what's been going on for the past 8 years building up to this and wasn't comfortable staying in when there's other option out there). The war has already been paid for by the increasing of gas/oil prices over the past 6 months and could have been seen as a precursor to sanctions imposed. They've basically gotten Europe to pay for the war and sanctions already. Does Putin really care about the human cost of the war? Probably not if it keeps the general public focused on something other than his lessening support. What percentage believe he's actually doing something right for the country here could be a problem for him, but all vocal dissidents are dealt with. Too much power, and hungry for more. I put a floor on my chart around 190p with things changing as they are. Wouldn't expect much lower than that until the frontline move significantly towards the mine. If/when a ceasefire is called, if the infrastructure to export is still intact then this will likely shoot back to 300-400p in no time, like the last month.
Russia is never going to go away, so the threat of political issues will always be constant. This is why the EPS has always been high, Market Cap low. If you're imagining going to a relatively peaceful stage like last year, then the value of the company has only gone up since then.
send multiple copies to: PAYE & Self Assessment, HMRC, BX9 1AS
to be verified you were a tax resident during the timeframe you were claiming. Then send to Switzerland.
no search for the country at the bottom of the webpage and download there
Unless it's in a pension I think you'll have lost 15% and can claim back 20%. It's all been mentioned before. If you need more info you might need to scroll back through the chat to a few months ago, or click my name, some of it is in there. Someone posted address too you need to send forms off to. I'll look for it later when I'm back at my computer.
https://www.estv.admin.ch/estv/en/home/anticipatory-tax/claim-refund/domicil-abroad.html
it's bumping up profits, but short term political issues are likely to drop the price with war games going on, or keep it around this level now until things settle a bit. We'll either see a drastic drop with bad news or a volatile rise/fall with dividend announcements.
If Russia does invade or "help the separatists" to invade then the main focus will be predominantly russian speaking southern and eastern regions, with emphasis on controlling the Black Sea coast and Dnieper river. The Poltava region (where FXPO mines are located) and the adjacent Kirovohrad region are the buffer between the predominantly russian and ukrainian native speaking areas. A good majority of the pellets are transported to the western border to european markets, which should an invasion stop before entering these regions, would still provide supply lines out (with obvious disruption). Supply lines to the south and the Black Sea would likely be cut to the ports and barges for shipping further afield. The big question is, is the destabilising just to gain political advantage to maintain the buffer between western and russian ideologies, or a scheme to retake into russian hands areas which they'd lost control over since the collapse of the soviet union.
It's definitely a very dangerous situation, primarily being controlled by Russia and will essentially be on their timeframe. Do I think the ukrainians have more western support now than they did a few years ago, yes. Do I think the majority of the ukrainian population want much Russian influence again, no. Do I think Russia will want to reassert control to a pro-Russia leader, yes. How far do I think they'll push it, maybe until they have control from Odessa to Kharkiv. Full control I can see as difficult given the past uprisings against pro-russian leaders in recent history. In my eyes the most likely aim is to gain more ground, but also continue to destabilise more and more. Predictions of cyberattacks weeks and months ago are just anticipating something which was going to happen anyway. I'd like to know how many cyber attacks there's been on ukraine in the past few years since pro western leadership took majority. So in my eyes this is non news until we see actual movement of troops or machinery.
dazzle1000 i'd be interested to know, though for my personal circumstances it doesn't matter at the mo as I'm below the threshold for CGT anyway.
So i don't think you understand that the withholding tax is taken by the swiss tax authorities, before dividends are given out. Then if you are eligible to claim back you have to go through the process. It means the swiss don't miss out on that sweet income they can gain from people who don't know about it. There are plenty of threads on here explaining the process. Might have to scroll back a few pages.
This months average prices:
65% fines $131.98/T with PP of $52.83/T for a total of $184.80/T (+$6.55 from November,
putting the averages for 2021 at:
65% fines $185.76/T with PP of $57.14/T for a total of $242.90/T (-$5.89 from November).
H1 Average:
65% fines $212.17/T with PP of $56.75/T for a total of $268.92/T
Current H2 Average:
65% fines $160.59/T with PP of $57.52/T for a total of $218.11/T
They do however want to control the waterways towards crimea, as i think the canals which was a main source of water has been cut off in Ukraine.
It's just slowly building momentum after a long slide. I'm looking forward to the update at the start of January. And there'll probably be more anticipation of a reasonable dividend again which will slowly push the price up. We're around the price we were at this time last year. So I'd assume we'll see positive movement (hoping 20-30%) from here considering the year they've had.
I like the fact the money is held in Switzerland, so if the mine(s) were taken over, the half billion or more they have in cash right now is significantly safer. We had similar tensions last jan/feb time I think too. The issue is whether Russia gets desperate as Ukraine builds it's strength/defences over time. In all likelihood Russia will attempt to internally destabilise "to enable pushing in to stabilise". The next Ukrainian election would be 2024, so attempting to grow resentment towards Zelenskyy to have an early election is probably the best course of action for Russia. If is can be shown he's failed at reclaiming promised areas under Pro-Russian control this will go far towards an effective coup.
Last Feb with this news the price still continued up to 500p, so not sure. Think this already has most of the risk factor priced in.
This months average prices:
65% fines $111.10/T with PP of $67.16/T for a total of $178.25/T (-$34.32 from October),
putting the averages for 2021 at:
65% fines $191.21/T with PP of $57.58/T for a total of $248.79/T (-$10.57 from October).
H1 Average:
65% fines $212.17/T with PP of $56.75/T for a total of $268.92/T
Current H2 Average:
65% fines $166.86/T with PP of $58.55/T for a total of $225.40/T
And nice to see Gas prices coming down again, which'll help the margins.
Pellet premium holding the average up nicely. Looks like we might come down to the $90-110 range for 65% fines though. Hopefully those pellet premiums stay strong with increased restrictions on emissions in china for the next year.