SYME - Right Product, Right Time!!25 Mar 2022 08:37
By MrMarket
While supply chain challenges have been making headlines around the globe as the single most important factor to disrupt economic recovery, the role and future possible models for #supplychain #finance gain new importance. Let’s take a look.
Even before the start of the pandemic, the World Economic Forum was estimating (in 2018) the global gap in #tradefinance to stand at US$1.5 trillion, forecasted to rise to US$2.5 trillion by 2025. Based on a more recent estimate of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), this gap has widened even more to US$1.7 trillion, an increase of 15% over the 2018 original number.
When we talk about a trade finance gap, we mean nothing more than a gap between demand and supply, i.e. the difference between invoices that get financed and those that don’t. It is easy to understand that with uncertainty reaching sky-high levels during the pandemic, rejection rates (for financing) have dramatically increased, which mostly accounts for the 15% increase.
In such an environment, the emergence of new business models – as a result of #FinTech providers disrupting the status-quo – and their mixing with existing bank-led approaches, will give rise to a new, transformed supply chain finance (SCF) value chain.
According to McKinsey, there are four possible future models:
- Bank led, whereby banks improve end-to-end delivery by reimagining client journeys, renovating #technology, and delivering #AI-enabled financing
- Bank-led #partnerships, whereby banks partner with platform providers to develop solutions (ERP integration, third-party data) but retain control of the customer interface
- Platform led, whereby nonbank #platforms scale to provide #SCF across the full industry value chain of suppliers and buyers, linking into banks and nonbank financing providers
- Diverse supply-chain finance ecosystem, whereby a broad range of providers coexist, each catering to different needs
Going forward, there are three main directions standing out to define the future of the industry:
— Depending on geographies and market dynamics, it is likely that all of these approaches will co-exist in some form or another for some time, until market forces push one or the other to a more dominant position
— The role of Fintechs, will be increasingly becoming more influential and omnipresent along the entire value-chain from enabling banks to address long-standing pain points (i.e. KYC requirements and onboarding) to powering new third-party platforms
— Technology will be taking a front seat in driving change. There are, for example, more than 40 #blockchain consortia globally, taking the industry through the ecosystem approach
Opinions: my own, Graphic source & 4-model reference: McKinsey & Company, The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report
https://twitter.com/marketmaster88/status/1506763020936093710?s=21