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>>I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years ! 


That is a point that only echoes the historical financial position that the company have been in, with more recently on point that now, with a good ‘initial’ revenue stream coming in from the new plant after 5 odd years “waiting.”

I say initial, as there is further development potential to treat all ore types and increase throughput with those higher sulphide grades. Ultimately, that will have opened the door to exploit the other deposits that have declared mineral reserves and then some!

Things ‘will’ be different off the back of Manica alone, with an ability to now start growing the company.

I do feel CB is unfairly hammered, folk seem to think it’s all his fault, considering going into a major recession. He has a whole board of experienced directors that are no doubt supportive of any strategy going forward.

But I also appreciate the fact I have not been here as long as many others that have suffered lots of dilution in that time.

With respect ✊

I would not disagree with those points Andrew, I can just see the next run when market conditions turn, being of a different approach to PR. The first wave was a desperate attempt to capture the imagination of investors to believe in this magical BR story that you simply wouldn’t want to miss out on. I certainly believe for good reason too.

The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think, suitable to attract bigger investors that are less risk averse. if the company can offer value to the market from the status of up to date assets, without the need for more cash from holders then that will be great.

But even If all is well with the next batch of news there is still a potential £4m deficit in strategic operating cash, so Colin may still need to ramp it up again. But at the same time have some reasonable to good fundamentals to back it up and underpin a higher market cap this time that simply wasn’t the case before.

I am of course making my own assumptions that we simply do not know yet, and am basing an investment case over 18 months or so ‘from’ when the company finally show their hand. I think that would be a fair time frame to see further developments.

>>The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.

That could certainly be considered for the many that have been or are still involved in the company, or have previously just researched it. . But that is only a tiny proportion of the potential investor base out there. Most juniors are unknowns, even to the investors of the hundreds of others small cap mining companies on AIM.

Would be stretching it to say that maybe one percent have ever even heard of Colin Bird or even the various companies he runs.

The PR, if timed right, with a steady flow of positive news supported by clear fundamentals will start to attract the next wave of investors going into the next bull run when global conditions are right. Just being up on the LSE leaderboard and pinged to the ‘many’ thousands of subscribers after decent news will attract interest.

I agree on BR Andrew, as the longer it’s held off, the less chance of a further cash raise.

Is plenty of news already that must be stacking up to be released ‘strategically’. Potential to be some news of proportional significance from each of the assets. If the development schedule has kept momentum and seen progression, there must surely be some decent upside unlocked from here.

The roasties on Sunday made the point again that companies that had managed to previously get their funding in place will be prime position to advance projects.

So for Xtract to come out the other end of this sustainable, ( if not already) will be very good news indeed, and particularly so, if the projects have seen that continued development, in what has pretty much seen many projects elsewhere having to be parked up until new money returns.

Pi55ing and wind spring to my mind

Is interesting to look at Caravels pathway to their PFS from 2017 prior to scoping study when they ‘did’ have positive results return from bulk ore sorting test work initially to prove the concept with core samples (as per what xtract are waiting on) and then further BOS tests in 2018 on a 1-2ton bulk load sent for more extensive and advanced work that they stated was critical for incorporating BOS into the front end flowsheet that a PFS inputs require.

I previously missed their BOS results somehow but as of their scoping study the tech is incorporated, but interestingly their full PFS ‘22 in based on using other resource and mining optimisation methods. Stating that due to recent advancements in BOS installations they are waiting to see what further upside can come from it as they have a great starting point already with significant results.

It is a fair comparison, but worth considering, are Xtract for now, just proving the resource to a level, enough to trigger the buy back to get an answer? As where Caravel differ, is they have been building the resource with the intention to mine it themselves.

https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/historical-announcements

Caravel ASX code CVV

Worth a look even just to get an idea what Xtr shareholders can expect to come from the pre concentration study if and when it’s returned. I’m sure CB said in podcast it will be RNS’d.

Dani

Fully agreed with Charles, (CaveatEmptor) with the issuing, and then having the warrents outstanding, suggest’s there is a financing overhang so can stifle share price. <

Which to ‘me’ made CB’s PR efforts in ‘that’ respect very transparent. But certainly done so, more in the interests of the shareholders that had averages below the last round of placing prices to minimise dilution.

If further financing of BR can now be done from treasury, and there is decent enough IRR on the project then the share price will be finally driven by the fundamentals and far less need by CB’ previous rhetoric PR.

Charles would have had plenty to say about the ‘Decision to mine’ was up for xtract being involved in developing it to mine in some way or part themselves. Has totally dropped off the radar??

Bit more clarity at AGM on implications of DtM in regards to one of his comments with roasties that a ‘partner will need to be found.’

Oh yeah it finished up at close not level!

Ta muchly Andrew I had muddled xtr with another that was down

There was a small UT at, or up to close yesterday which the bid and ask were raised for no real reason to close level after a 5% drop most of the day. So the apparent drop today is not as much as it would have been. 2-3%

May explain this mornings drop Docit

“It was Investment, not Corporate +++ker btw”

Innocent mistake didn’t mean to insult you, by implying you were one of those +++kers from the 4th floor. Detect some old departmental rivalry there! 😂

Howdy NtM if my memory serves me well, wasn't you a corporate +++ker?

Or are you on about a different type of +++ker?

🫢

>>Could holders convert warrants into shares at any time and any price? 
How many have expired?

There is too much disparity in the share price against the price of the warrents which obviously give the holders the right to buy or sell at the set price and at anytime. But they become worthless if not exercised before they expire which I believe the 8.5p and 5.6p have done.

Hence why Colin’s brand of rampy PR had continued long after the placement that initially funded phase two. To drive the share price up and above the warrent strike prices. And possibly tailed off when that either wasn’t going to work, they were confident then that income would finally make up that deficit in budgeting for the optimisation phase to PFS, or, to later plan a new PR drive once resource economics are known to get a further placement to fund the next leg up.

My take on it, opinions may differ

I like the current growth strategy, with CB doing what he does best. Is on the right track. His record with Jubilee was second to none. Stepping down as he felt his skills were better suited to growing companies that were at that earlier stage in their development.

Xtract is a prime example of developing to sustainability with a good balance of reward against risk mitigation, with projects that can be structured with only a project manager assigned from the company, so as long as projects that fit a certain criteria are found, they are not a drain on the company and that growth is not limited.

As for BR they have an experienced geo team that are making the key decisions in exploring, delineating, and growing the resource. That’s what they are paid to do, so is in very safe hands.

So I agree on the currently low mc to keep accumulating.

Guy 😉

>>…..what value of Bushranger would be priced into company value now? 


Is worth a reminder that although the economic evaluation showing IRR once reworked, would need to show a degree of desirability to compare with other projects, or certainly the potential to be. It is essentially, just a snap shot along the path to feasibility that projects take with each decision point. Generally, with the model being reworked as necessary along the way to achieve max value.

Following on and in relation to the thread title, here’s a quote from Jezzoo from that day one year ago.

Jezzoo >>> I for one can hold my breath a bit longer for bigger payday.

You still with us bud, in both mind and soul, or shuffled off this mortal coil?

>>If XTR was listed on ASX what value of Bushranger would be priced into company value now?

Market metrics for ASX listed copper companies suggested that RC resource would have immediately driven a market cap of $15-30 million

That was for a listing back in 2020 from BR presentation. As for now, is good question.

You hit nail in head Dani, those with a long term outlook can see the value in where the company are positioning themselves. Those with a far shorter term outlook have been disappointed with their investment particularly with the way the PR has been handled. Hence our optimism for the long term is not palatable for many at present.

I have a book at home called ‘The art of not giving a F***

Served me well!

>>>Well done Bird, you are certainly true to form with the companies that you (mis)manage!

I’ll take that as how it is written bob, so I couldn’t agree more in Colin’s good management of the company, at least since I invested in early ‘21. Just for balance however, on the other hand is arguable, that his management and use of PR toward shareholder expectations has been questionable.

Seen the fairbride JV successfully and smoothly come together. Negotiated a really good deal with Oval mining and Kakuyu owners to mine there. Giving Xtract full exploration and resource delineation control with 60 then 70% profit share without the 50/50 JV complications that can sometimes transpire between partners, potentially what has occurred with the KPZ deal. Sometimes the best decisions for the long term are the easiest to make in the short!

But I think where shareholder expectations were concerned, seeing the market react to those missed targets that were implied by Colin and coincident with market down turn. Has potentially seen ‘overall’ shareholder value increase if the company can build cash flow from production adequately to cover the contractual obligations for all further drilling and technical work in Oz without the need to rely on further share placements. Particularly, with the expiry of the warrants at 8.5p and the few at 5.6p that would have bolstered the treasury by £4m+ but seen dilution.

Has generally been accepted that an investment case be based on up to a billion or so shares being in issue taking warrants and bonuses into consideration.

What are the odds, now the company has economic sustainability, that total shares in issue, will have been potentially reduced?

Ultimately benefiting ‘ALL’ shareholders.

Hello bob, so are you blaming Colin bird for the huge losses wiped off the valuations is all other companies listed on the various indices. AIM alone, had seen £45B wiped off of values in the first half of ‘22 alone.

Most or certainly a vast amount of those companies in AIM that have suffered the most losses those that do not have earnings or any other type of incomes to underpin their market caps.

The same has certainly been the case here with the slower than anticipated pathway to full or meaningful earnings from full production levels being reached from fairbride plant.

Xtract are now in prime position to capitalise on those investors that have shunned listings in those previous 18 months or so that will be looking for value where there is current undervalue. A newly sustainable, exploration and mining company will be right up there to take advantage of the swing in market sentiment when it turns.

Whilst adding emojis to LSE they appear to have disabled direct web links.

Https://im-mining.com/tag/magnetic-resonance/