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THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IS WARNING THAT COPPER IS HEADING TOWARD A SUPPLY SHORTAGE THAT COULD REACH 30% BY 2035

The only way out of this? - E1

On the supply side, the world will need ‘major’ new sources of copper. But delivery through the current known resources, will not be enough, nowhere near. It will need to come from new major discoveries of very large bulk tonnage long life mines.

Majors dont have their own exploration arms they had 15-20 years ago. There are only so many, mergers and aquisitions possible, fighting over the same amount of resource as they position themselves.

‘Major investment’ in exploration to find the new discoveries to mine, is the only way of keeping anywhere within reach of that demand.

It is far more serious than many realise.

You may think you are being smart telling that little story of which is 5 mins of my life I’m not getting back, but in promoting your ‘favourite’ stock that has got absolutely f… nothing to do with GGP whatsoever is not acceptable. Sharing the same continent doesn’t count. Imagine if every person and their dog broke this basic forum etiquette.

Mopars take your fancy Doozer? 😎

Much louder and with more cubic inches

Very true CP, giving an example of its usage and how integral it is in disclosure in the industry, for the sept ‘24 admission document, the Company commissioned SRK Consulting to prepare a Competent Person's Report for the purposes of AIM Rules in respect of mineral resource and reserves disclosure. That important report was prepared in accordance with Valmin and JORC codes

Seen the price of silver? It’s rocketing currently $57.54.

Driven by various factors, monetary policy and supply concerns. Is having a double whammy between gold, driven by the former and copper the latter.

Strap in jez…boing

Hi Magnum take some time to research Valmin code. It is part of the broader Australian reporting framework. The code sits alongside the JORC code but is for the public reporting of technical assessments and valuations of mineral assets. It uses a strict set of standards and guidelines for valuing an asset.

Presently, it’s unlikely an offer will come at x2 current market capitalisation outside of valmin which essentially acts as a third party to give a true value. Inground value does not come at a high premium unless a discounted cash flow model can be used, but as Havieron is not producing yet it is still considered under Valmin as an exploration project. Valmin code would be central to any kind of corporate action even if just as a baseline figure to kick off negotiations as companies are not tied to accepting that value. But would not be too far away from valuation under valmin.

Presently a realistic valuation in the real world I would guess would sit at a 20-30% premium to the current share price. Under Valmin I wouldn’t be surprised if it was less “at present”

Definitely won’t be a popular post but without confirmed actual long mine life it is what it is.

I don’t profess to fully understand how an asset is valued and GGP is not straightforward, but Valmin is the best place to start.

Impressive enough economics to support Hav as a stand-alone mine, when put alongside the potential from WDU and open pit extensions will be ‘really’ compelling. As good as the economic performance is from Hav you have to consider it is still only one part of the business!

They have applied a cut off for the Hav Ore Reserve on a break even NSR of A$82/t ‘processed,’ that includes cemented paste fill costs, using really conservative metal prices of A$2,500/oz gold and A$10,141/t copper.

Conservative pricing of gold and copper will give far greater confidence that mine and processing can easily ride out wild swings in commodity prices, even through whole economic recessionary cycles. One of the biggest reason why long life bulk tonnage mines are preferred by the majors. It’s getting down to the nuts and bolts of what really starts to makes a tier one mine.

@PaddyGall @Bamps

Given dual train processing once Hav and WDU are utilising Hav train one and the other train is set up for the lower grade oxides. With all the transitional ore they will encounter as they go deeper can it report to ‘either’ train giving operational flexibility depending on its mineralisation of course, or will it all be blended to go through the ‘Telfer’ train or be stockpiled again depending on mineralisation type.

Just interested generally.

Was just about to post and Bamps you answer my question eloquently.

Cheers paddy, I suspect then that an overall strategy will see that as long as the ore that does get sent for processing, actually augments production alongside Hav ore and is not just supplementary to fill capacity then can see that being feasible and can live with that if it can be implemented through their blending strategies. Otherwise it just goes against Shaun Day’s beliefs with his background in investment banking.

What they will not want is to over promise and under deliver which if both processors are to be the new preferred method going forward opposed to a single train, feasibility will be down to hard economics as always, another reason why the DFS economic assessment is so anticipated by the wider global market.

Thank you gents

Hey Bamps, maybe so due to that increase in open pit resources and higher sale price lowereing break even costs further too bringing more in. But in Shaun’s latest podcast he stated how Havieron’s ore will start to displace the lower grade open pit material. If that is the case in ‘28 where are all the other 18 to 20mt coming from to feed both processors.

Will all the open pit extensions provide that kind of bulk tonnage and for how long? Bearing in mind too the stockpiles will require significant replenishing as well , to act as an operational buffer against mine shut downs. The more the better.

In camp howezap we have from the conference call in April this year. Shaun stated they are more concerned about the margin of free cash flow than just putting tonnages through production.

Also commented

“For me, it's not about ounces. It's about being financially disciplined. We're a company first and a Gold miner 2nd, so to speak.”

”So I'm a huge believer in the quality of ounces, in actually generating high margin, high quality production, which generates free cash flow and returns to your shareholders. I'm not a believer in chasing ounces for ounces' sake. And even I think from a sustainability point of view, I think that's a better way, moving less tons to make more money seems highly attractive. I think personally, it’s about optimising your own production base, not just trying to make it as big as possible.”- Shaun Day in ‘22 long before the 100% acquisition of Telfer and Hav. Sunday roast PR Copper/Gold special 13feb’22

Agree though however it pans out, will be a tremendous boost for Telfer.

Guy

Got it-

This area of Telfer plant optimisation is a seperate study and once assessed will be incorporated into the imminent DFS giving an executable schedule to adapt.

This is all about efficient environmentally responsible mining, reducing tailings, reducing energy and water abstraction, putting less mass, but quality high grades only, through the plant to reduce Telfer AISC, improve yield and ‘not’ to just concentrate on bulk tonnage. It will make Telfer one of the most efficient mines on the planet.

No reason why the DFS will not give an executable schedule.

Cut out the bulk of my last post 😒anyone who know my views and values will get where I was going.

Roll on DFS will reveal all

From the admission document (or, the Bible as I like to refere to it as)

3.8.3 Optimisation

In addition to investigating extensional Telfer ore sources, the Company will also assess opportunities to optimise and extend Telfer operations.

One such potential opportunity is the Telfer processing plant configuration and throughput rate. As noted above, the Telfer processing plant has a nominal annual processing capacity of 20Mtpa, utilising two largely independent trains. This configuration has previously achieved as high as 23Mtpa, suggesting that a processing single train is capable of achieving at least 11.5Mtpa processing rate. The Company intends to utilise a single train processing configuration once Havieron is in production, and will assess whether an earlier adoption of this approach could optimise the Telfer operation.

There are no concerns whatsoever, that the DFS will push Hav first ore ore production back further and not be on schedule for FY28.

Current base case mining study was based on the data from the ongoing feasibility study. The DFS will also include major optimisations that would ‘usually’ have to go on to be validated as would in a normal circumstance follow as recommendations to enhance the economics of a preceding scoping or pre feasibility study.

But, all of the optimisations in the DFS for Havieron and Telfer plant and infrastructure will be ‘already’ fully validated with costs and scheduling etc so they will not affect the schedule which someone could have wrongly perceived toward a potential delay.

There would certainly be no commercial decision to push it back or any other corporate reason for that matter. The AISC and free cash flow it will genarate for the treasury now gold and copper prices are at more sustainable highs, are a serious driver to accelerate that first ore production if anything.

Nine has nothing to support it just ignore.

Vic was the first line in Welsh?

Or did you sober up half way through typing?

Me and Doozer have had a good few beers so could read it perfectly so no worries 👍

Would not sharing your genuine questions on here first goingtothemoon be better than potentially wasting question time at TH and embarrassing yourself by not understanding what you have bought into.

What do you want to know that is not already in the public domain?

I’m quite sure Shaun is not going to divulge anything to attendees that is too far away from that readily available info anyway.

“”Rumours are all over X and from many well-respected "share tipsters"

Seriously!! 🙄

May as well have said, Bloke said! Down the pub

Still only been just over a year ago that the company moved out of the bottom tier of junior explorers that make up 80-90%+ of all companies in the resource sector that ‘rely’ on raising capital from shareholders via allocation of new shares.

To where we are on today’s news alone. Not forgetting a little known asset up the road that we haven’t stopped talking about until today’s news bomb.

It’s like one day being broke and homeless and before you know it you are accessorising your new house while putting planning applications in for two big extensions at the same time.

Some have even been very shrewd in escaping the clutches of a controlling partner by out manoeuvring them and have done alright. David and Goliath spring to mind.

Ps But please spare a thought and maybe a prayer for the many homeless folk that are having to over occupy, or in temporary accommodation, sofa surfing or are sleeping rough outside tonight and every night.

Hi Charlie, unfortunately will still have to follow along the lines of typical resource development. It will be fast tracked in that the existing Telfer infrastructure supports the potential to accelerate a new mine being what is meant where fast tracking is concerned. Massively reduces the lead time to first ore revenue.

Additionally, as a brownfield site, the use of an existing, permitted facility minimises the time and complexity associated with those regulatory approvals I mentioned earlier, giving a far more streamlined path to production compared to developing a greenfield processing site.

Guy

Hey charlie156

As a whole new mine, not just an extension to an existing mining front , requires going through pre- feasibility. Firstly, as a basis to commit to the development in the first place as it will not be without risk, but also provide justification for proceeding to final feasibility having identified all the risks involved, both technical and operationally, along with economic viability to allocate or source funding of a starter mine. But just as importantly for transparency and complying with stringent regulatory requirements in obtaining necessary and associated permits.