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I agree Branson, still a bit gutting to have a 10% drop on no news but as usual nothing fundamentally has changed with the business, looking forward to results.

Stock still doesn't like between 3-4pm.

US stocks very green today, hopefully a good day tomorrow.

The actual valuation part was Indy's valuation - Here is the post - https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6879773033578467328/

The Times hasn't mentioned anything about THG instead they have an article about short-sellers targeting Made.com and Alpha-wave.

https://twitter.com/mikecosgrove/status/1477686051053486088

Fundamental analysis is very important of course Danl and you are good at it but ultimately everyone has a slightly different analysis and view on the figures. Perhaps it's an immature method for me to take into account the previous higher share price (especially if there has been no substantial bad news) but so far has helped me do well.
It just doesn't seem likely to me that a stock could stay in that 550p - 800p range for a year, meaning the market was happy with that price then everyone suddenly decided its actually worth only a third of this within a few months. The ingenuity figures were known back when it was 550p - 800p too.

Seems like a terrible short to me, even if its true that someone who shorted at 170p and was underwater now but feels ok because they were certain results would be disappointing, it's still a stock that was around 600p for over a year and is currently 229p after a relatively quick fall. In other words they would have an uncomfortable wait until the 18th and then would need results to be surprisingly bad at the very least in order to maintain the negative sentiment that is heavily priced in at these levels.

There was a very brief mention of THG in ST in article mostly about retail and also some online retail in general being attacked by short sellers:

"Hedge funds are betting £800 million against British retailers next year and have put online “pandemic winners” in their crosshairs.

Many paragraphs later...

"Similarly, hedge funds have built a 3.4 per cent position, worth £47 million, against Boohoo, which has suffered a two-thirds slump in its share price since the start of the year and which has issued a profit warning. Asos, a rival that recently parted ways with its chief executive and is subject to concerns about its growth in the United States, has 1.42 per cent of its shares on loan to Marshall Wace, an American fund."

"PSquared Capital, a Swiss-based firm, has made a huge profit on its bet against THG, the ecommerce and technology business. The London-based AHL Partners now has a 0.5 per cent short against THG, while Qube Research & Technologies Limited, the quantitative hedge fund spun out of Credit Suisse, has a 0.78 per cent short."

For Boohoo while the drop was overdone it did have some actual reasons behind it unlike THG. A lot more upside long term in THG imo. Boohoo just as likely to drop over xmas as THG.

Also has a separate (as usual negative) mention by Alastair Osbourne:

Title - Moulding hunted

"Top praise for starfish impersonator Matt Moulding. Sir Tom Hunter reckons The Hut Group boss is the “best entrepreneur disruptor I have come across”, what with him having built an “enduring business”, despite his smashed-up shed half falling down.

And how has Hunter’s West Coast Capital shown its support? First by halving its stake to 1.96 per cent at September 2020’s 500p-a-share float to pocket £53 million. And, then, by badgering the listing banks to waive the lock-up in January, so he could offload 4.2 million more shares at 760p. Yes, he’s backed Moulding, he says, since “2009 or 2010”. And, with THG shares now at 218p, Hunter’s stock sales have been smart. But they hardly show “enduring” faith."

Title - Sir Tom Hunter heaps praise on ‘top disruptor’ Matt Moulding at helm of THG

"Sir Tom Hunter has given his backing to THG boss Matt Moulding, calling him the “best entrepreneur disruptor I have come across” after a difficult year for the technology group.

Hunter described THG as an “enduring business” as he published accounts for his investment company.

Accounts for West Coast Capital Holdings will show it has around £200 million of equity available and no debt. Hunter has transferred a further £29.6 million to his charitable foundation and says his investment company still has a “ton of cash” for backing entrepreneurs.

Hunter was Scotland’s first home-grown billionaire after using his proceeds from selling the Sports Division retail chain to diversify into property and other areas of retail.

He has continued to invest and support philanthropic ventures. The latest transfer to the Hunter Foundation means £80 million will have gone into the charity over the past two years.

Hunter, 60, confirmed that trend for bigger value transfers will continue and said: “When the pandemic hit I had time to sit in the house and think. We looked at it and I felt we had to pull our philanthropic giving forward as the need is much greater.”

The biggest change in the most recent accounts for West Coast Capital Holdings, which cover the 12 months to March this year, was because of the sale of more than £50 million worth of shares during THG’s flotation.

Hunter reiterated his support for Moulding despite THG’s problems since listing, including a sharp fall in the share price and close scrutiny of its governance arrangements.

He said: “I have been a shareholder since 2009 or 2010. We back people and Matt Moulding is the best entrepreneur disruptor I have come across.

“He has built an enduring business in there. It is the e-commerce space and he has built the proprietary technology to power that business. That is good stuff.”

He added: “Our investment philosophy starts with the entrepreneur. I drive my team crazy because I will meet somebody and they will be in a space I don’t know anything about but I’m backing the person.”

West Coast Capital is also involved in the building of thousands of houses in Winchburgh, West Lothian, and is a long-term backer of firms such as Onzo, which works in data analytics."

Highest close since 28th Oct

This stock really doesn't like 3-4pm.

The title of the times article is now changed to "Investors buy into talk that THG is ready to go private".

Seems like it's trying to make out that the rise is all due to this speculation. I haven't seen that many people speculating about it going private most of the comments I've seen both from retail online and analysts have simply been that they think it's undervalued.

With the shares now at less than half their listing valuation some retail investors are now buying them up in the belief that the company has reached its bottom. It is due to report its fourth quarter results on January 18, which will include the crucial peak Black Friday trading season. While other ecommerce retailers including Boohoo, AO World and Asos recently issuing profit warnings on the back of the supply chain challenges there is a sense that THG’s silence means that it is on track to meet sales and profit targets.

Posts on LinkedIn by THG staff revealed that the business’ THG Beauty unit had a “record breaking cyber unit”. One staff member said that that its beauty team “had smashed this years targets [for Single’s Day] before the day had even begun” while another employee said “Black Friday 2021 —What an amazing event celebrating another record-breaking trading day”. Moulding’s Instagram account has been silent since his GQ interview.

There are still doubts about whether Softbank, the Japanese technology investor, will exercise its option to acquire a 20 per cent stake in THG’s Ingenuity division after the entire company’s value plummeted. Moulding said last month: “Maybe we will, maybe we won’t, but it is a two-way street.”

Clearly these forums are followed...

"After slumping in valuation by three quarters this year, shares in THG have rallied on the back of renewed deal speculation and relief that it has dodged a pre-Christmas profit warning.

The ecommerce retailer has discussed taking the business private again, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with internal discussions. Sources previously said that a decision would be made in the new year if THG’s valuation continued to be depressed. A spokesman said that reports of THG planning to go private were “pure speculation”.

The suggestion of becoming a private company comes after Matt Moulding, 49, THG’s billionaire founder, hinted in an interview with GQ magazine in November that he and a few other close shareholders owned more than half the business and buying back the business was an option. “I’ll just…[keep an] open mind” he said.

THG was founded in 2004 by Moulding and John Gallemore, originally as an online CD and DVD retailer, before morphing into a beauty and nutrition business with 300 websites and 10,000 staff. When it floated last September the company defied traditional corporate governance standards with Moulding’s holding the roles of executive chairman, landlord and chief executive, plus enjoying a golden share and a £800 million bonus incentive. Moulding has since offered to surrender his share and executive chairman role, but investors have become spooked by a lack of transparency around its Ingenuity technology arm.

In recent days, retail investor bulletin boards have been full of rumours that there will be some corporate action at THG while it has also been reported that the company is reviewing options to lift its share price that include a sale of its beauty and nutrition assets, which include Cult Beauty, Look Fantastic and MyProtein. A spokesman however said the company “is not considering or exploring a sale of either its beauty or nutrition business”.

Shares in the ecommerce to technology logistics business rose for their fourth consecutive day, trading almost 11 per cent higher today before falling back to close 13¼p or 6.5 per higher at 215½p.

Analysts suggested part of the rise was due to a report by The Sunday Times that The Analyst, a private research firm, was withdrawing its short recommendation. The research house confirmed that it had stopped coverage around three weeks ago because shares in THG had already fallen so much. The Analyst’s bearish note in October exacerbated investor concerns by cutting THG’s valuation in half after a sum-of-the-parts analysis and calling its Ingenuity technology platform “overhyped”.

Highest close since Nov 1st

No announcement it's just a natural re-rate after such a harsh fall imo.

Highest close since 9th November