Member Info for HorisM

I expect the FMR buy was just because it was an IPO into the FTSE250 and just blind buy.

However, could see a US fund eyeing this up as a massive growth potential over 5 year glide path.

The wheels of Africa are turning, with USA/EU/China looking at 2% growth a year, and Africa looking at 10% - 20% growth a year, its clear to see where the investment funds will be looking to buy cheap shares like this up are.

How much for all the wine, the client list, and the set up "Angel" Channel

=£80m?

The great thing about this business is they sit in the middle of lots of trade and financial movements.

so they dont have to worry about consumers or specific industries, as money is always flowing around which they will be making margin on.

the added extra fuel is that they are expanding in Africa, the region with 10x growth potential over the next 5 years, and receiving billions in funding that need FX services.

Reasonable MCAP based on their project revenue this year is 180, with growth we then should be looking at a current MCAP of 220.

Final shake and stabilise with consolidation - next move up coming.

Business is still well undervalue and expect that now that the sellers and profit takers have moved on this now can start moving back up to the 80 - 90 range as the next target level.

Will they look to sell the business now? Would seem like a good time to sell the business to an investment firm with a 10 year glide.

Naturally there would be a bit of a sell off, some people are sat on 40-50% profit.

However looking at the buys/sells and volumes, it appears that most of the major sellers are done, and it just top slicing now.

Also appears that the sells are being eaten up and bundle as big buyers.

If there is a big buyer in the background they will be slow playing this to avoid a big re-rate before they fill the order.

However looking at the price movement, this will jump fast as limited free float.

a reasonable expectation is for this to be at 100 by the end of the week.

Getting to the back end of the current squeeze at this level, they will move the price up again soon to start to the squeeze at the 75 to 80 level, then the 80 to 90 level.

Once this getting near 100 it will be a rush to buy as it will fast move back to 140 once past that level.

Shares bought at the 440 region and in July are the only available shares being sold at the moment for profit.

I would expect that the cheap shares will run out in a couple of days on this current buy cadence, or after the next 100k are bought, then there will be limited free float on the market.

Once results are announced, would expect this to side nearer 700 region, and with dividend a lot of funds will buy some to have guaranteed revenue stream over 2024.

The USA/EU are making massive moves now to make Africa stable growth economies:

1) Stop China, who are put massive funds into Africa, so USA/EU will counter with their own funding.

2) Make stable Africa to stop migration into USA/EU.

3) Massive economic growth potential, can see the region 10x in 5 Years, which is wont happen in USA/EU

2023 is the year that the world is waking up to the massive potential of Africa.

Even a lot of Africans that have been educated and living in the USA/EU are now starting to move back to start businesses as they can see the massive potential and to live in countries with good weather all year round.

TBH, I would expect a large US fund to have a buy order in place that is being filled.

All the sells are being eaten up fast, and even with the profit takers jumping end of day Friday, the price jumped back fast to indicate lots of buying behind the scenes.

Can easily see this end nearer 100 by end of the week with any shares being sold as a bundle to a fund.

Oh, and it appears that all the "sells" are actually buys being misreported by the LSE system.

As such, everyone is starting to buy up ready for results, so best buy while you can cheaply.

The company are stable with improved margins, and looks like profit will increase over 23/24.

Big spending acquiring Adam Audio and Sonnox, to add Speakers and Software categories.

These big purchases ate company cash, however, they are cash generative and driving growth.

As such, for 23/24 with no more planned acquisitions would expect large dividend payments.

Big funds sat on the side lines waiting to buy any sells now to hold for the longer term.

Africa has massive population growth, big labour market, and vast natural resources, the continent has the potential for 10x growth over 5 years which wont happen in USA/EU/China as they are mature economies.

Looks like they have shaken out any real sellers and profit takers.

Any buys and this is jumping up fast.

Would expect this to end above 100 by end of the week at this rate.

Accounts out on the 28th Nov:

EBITDA1 for the full year to be between £38.2 million and £39.0 million.

As at 31 August 2023 the Group had net debt2 of approximately £1.5 million (down from FY23 H1: net debt £13.2 million)

This includes the acquisition of Sonnox Ltd in December 2022 for a net cash consideration of £7.2 million.

Launch of the new Focusrite Scarlett Soundcards on the 31st August 2023, with worldwide shipments.

Expect the share price to be around 650ish, and announcement of Dividends.

The acquisition of Sonnox was a vey big use of cash, as such moving into 2024 they should have a good consistent dividend coming.

Could we see a takeover of Saatchi?

The ship seems to have turned a corner, and would expect the cheap price to be a big incentive to acquire now.

How much for the mortgage book sell off?

I did warn earlier today that it was looking spikey and due a crash.

Anyway, wait to see if this stabilises around 60ish level first, I fear that there is still some tree shaking and profit takers looking to move.

There are too many traders in with 30 - 40% profit at the moment.

Expect this to get hammered down to low 60's, and consolidation with the shorts clearing.

Then it will start to move back up again.

Up in steps and down in slides = nature of the market.

per my other post, give Naked Wine a look, after this year everyone needs a bottle of wine to steady the nerves.

For those looking for a home to make a potentially easy profit worth a look at Naked Wines.

See my notes over there, new MD, passed the worse with stock on hand to ship and make profits over H2 2023 / H1 2024.

appears to be a good market for online wine sales during this Xmas with public places being avoided due to MEA issues and cost of living.