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Expecting a slight reduction in OCDO shorts...

Another great 12 weeks for Ocado... So constant improvement on sales over last 6 months and more - wonder how this will be reflected in July results??? On top of that expect an improvement in OCDO now FTSE100 seller's have cleared their books!

Simply Wall Street on On the Beach OTB shares:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-services/lse-otb/on-the-beach-group-shares

Only weak aspect on simple snowflake view is dividend and that was pre-dividend announcement, so would expect that to change - which would mean that OTB is not a snowflake but a big round circle showing strength in all areas of value, health, past, future and dividend!!

Https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/why-on-the-beach-is-worth-buying-right-now

Positive first-half results and an analyst upgrade are reigniting investors’ interest in the online package holiday provider On The Beach (OTB) and we think there is a big value opportunity here for investors to take advantage of.

Based on consensus forecasts the company trades on just 8.6 times September 2025 forecast earnings and after a hiatus imposed by the pandemic the company is returning to meaningful dividend payments – yielding 2.5% for the same 12-month period.

The 16.8p the company is forecast to generate in the year to 30 September 2025 would represent a return to the level achieved in 2018 and would be within striking distance of the 17.5p pre-pandemic high posted in 2019.

Thks. That's a nice article on On The Beach in Shares Magazine. Think I'll have a little top up now OTB share price has fallen slightly... Let hope there's more readers and interest over the weekend!

Inwresting comment: Why would Shorter's wish to buy back on a downgrade of Ocado to FTSE250 index - wouldn't thereby a sell off from IIs and funds who have a FTSE100 portfolio?

"Online supermarket Ocado Group rebounded 6.5% after falling over 12% in the previous session when index provider LSEG said it could be moved to the mid cap FTSE 250 index.

"It is one of the most shorted stocks in the United Kingdom by hedge funds so they're buying back their short specifically before Ocado shares are out of the FTSE 100," Rudolph added.

Millennium up... Kintbury down... which way will the shorter move next?

I'm in now the trajectory has changed... Missed out on 335 low but still find this good opportunity after fall from over £6... When Ocado rises it seems to rise pretty quick and high. Many Tech Co's loss making by much larger sums but if listed in US would have so much more investment compared to UK. Needs to join the NASDAQ.

How can a company called Dark Trace even be in the ftse100? Not sure how that Brand resonates with ppl... Next thing you know Darkweb Co's will start to get listed - how about invest in an organisation that develops Ransomeware???

Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-services/lse-otb/on-the-beach-group-shares

Game changer for OTB. Derisks the company. Only started the direct connection. Last month or so - not seen positive impacts yet so not changed interims. Will be interesting to see how effects OTB end of year. Expect likelihood it has a positive impact rather than negative one. IMO

Jed you'll be able to buy in soon!!

KP thanks for being transparent... Hard one to read when looking at the past 12 month historicals. I'd bought and sold previously at under £1 lows after giving in and attempting to average down as OTB share price just kept falling to a seemingly ridiculous level. Read it right for once for a nice return, but not without some worry and nail biting... OTB can turn quickly and surprisingly constant on the ups. Who said there's no manipulation???

Analysts are very positive. Valuations are much higher and accounts are in good shape... Even Alessandro's deramping with a requirement for £20M PBT is expected to be smashed (based on OTB Board's repeated confidence). So not sure what I am missing. Few shares get strong Value, Health, Past, Future, agile and asset light, and now has re-instated dividend... How does a snowflake analysis look like for On The Beach now?

End of day Fri... Normally a time that shares fall. Checking in as thought I could grab a few more OTB on the cheap.

If so when you buy I will buy too!

Mary you seem to have alot of backers and history shows me you know what your talking about and probably one of the few on this board to be successful in trading! Is it true??? :)

And I also agree that premium market and long haul (more expensive trips) will always be better to the bottom line and improved profit margins for company model like OTB vs 3* low cost bookings. That's not a negative but a positive for On The Beach.

Interestingly the H1 accounts make reference to Ryanair as the biggest Company risk... So with that out of the way should be plain sailing and all down to execution now.

Also as researching further - good to see positive Trustpilot reviews in the main and a good constant flow of reviews that back robust customer #.

Does seem quite undervalued and not sure why the SP has fallen so much in this week alone. While I hear the opinions that may be better to wait as SP could go to 120s... but I'd be surprised if any lower considering future value. Bought in a first tranche and will see.

Started to look into this company as financials seem sound. I was looking for the same!

End of 2023 they didn't have any debt and £75M cash! So interim H1 can see they've drawn down on bank loans £55M but that's to support a very busy Summer - where they have £200M in ringfenced trust account. And usual practice similar to prior years.

Wonder what kind of interest they'll be getting on the Trust finds! I mean say 4% over 4-6months will be around £3-4M pure profit... Then add in and compare trade receivables vs payable plus cash etc. Company is looking in very good shape!

Marketing costs are flat and according to H1 report costs heavily loaded for H1 so lower in H2... Board is confident of meeting consensus PBT which is £30M...

Last years tax around £2.3M so say even at 50% up would be around £3.4M. Dividend policy 25% of profit after tax be mean total of about 4p! So 3p final div and nearly 3% current price... 1st year div back will bring on board income investors.

And if you do the math - then expect £90-£100M in cash alone with ZERO debt by end of year. I guess that's what you call a "cash machine"! [Minus any divs and expect special divs or share buy backs]

Current MCAP of £225 I'd crazy - take away cash at end of year and considering repeated confidence in meeting consensus PBT then this company will have made profits to match MCAP minus cash within around 4 years (or less if current trajectory continues!!).

Madness.

Alessandro please explain how you read the accounts as I don't understand your continued references to so called marketing costs before or after profit/accounts... Marketing costs are under prior years yet business is on the rise.

Yeah GM has completely failed NCYT...??? Really - erm what was the revenue, profit, cash in bank and EBITDA during 2019 vs now? I am not a LTH of NCYT as only bought in 1st time unfortunately mid-July... So I cant even speak. But I plan to be a LTH and what GM has achieved in the last 12-18 months is something I think few CEOs could say the same.

Buy not but