Member Info for Hindy86

Good thanks kg, hope your well

Yes you haven’t missed much at all, little bit of moaning, the odd conspiracy, oh and Elon musk was going to buy us out at one point 😂 (that must of fallen through tho) think we’ll be around for a while yet anyway.

Agree with you guys tho that if they say they’re going to update the market that’s the least they should do, maybe the rns will come in morning. I don’t think there’s anything behind it tho, kingrav nailed it with his comment they wouldn’t be accumulating now if an Ri was coming

The sp stopped at Covid low yesterday a key area of support, will have to see how it reacts now

Will it hold and eventually bounce back ⬆️

Or fall through and bounce of the underneath ⬇️…

Maybe we’ve all just bought a dud 😂

Jefferies reiterated their buy recommendation on 20/2/24

All the signs I’ve seen so far going into earning have been positive.

I’d like to think that provision and delay rns was a great opportunity to kitchen sink any more bad news as well if there was any.

I think this is where we turn our battleship around personally, I’m not expecting to be full steam ahead but I’m hoping they at least take the twat out of reverse

The drop seems a little over the top to me on delayed results expected to be inline but if it wants to sell off let it il be looking for how it sets up now for earnings then might buy some more. The good thing about it being down going into them is it shouldn’t take much to pop it back up bad news is already getting priced in imo.Imagine if they mention the word interest regarding the na sale it could be back to mid 80’s in a flash then the key part is getting past 90.

The ftse250s setting up really strong as well which can only be a good thing if this is to finally start reversing and holding its gains,it’s flat on the year but looks as though it could be making a cup and handle ready to break upwards eventually.

This is what happened when mcg did it in December on the 1hr timeframe

https://ibb.co/MgjvfQy

Now look at how the ftse250 is setting up on the daily timeframe

https://ibb.co/ZSfzL4N

Obviously there’s more to it than just patterns but when you start to factor in there should be multiple rate cuts over the next two years, inflation trending down and probably coming out of one of the shortest recessions in history all the ducks are lining up nicely imo

I’ve doubled up as well

My worst case scenario was it would put in a double bottom pattern on bad results

But with shorts slightly reducing

Large holder increased

And results expected to be inline

I think the worst case scenario has gone up in flames

Firstgroup good results and expect guidance ahead of market expectations, ‘how the other half live eh’

I still think ours will be ok, I think any relating to the provision will be historical, they’ve already given forward guidance of between 40-70m I suppose they could always come out and say they got it wrong though and now expect it to be between 70-100m, which you kinda can’t put it past em 🤣 but jokes aside we should be swinging from a+ 200m loss to smallish profit and eps going from negative to positive as well

Back to profitability next imo

Any news around the sale will be a massive bonus and a big catalyst especially if there is interest from multiple parties

Then I want to see the outlook hopefully no horrors

It doesn’t get exciting until it gets back to 90p

In the mean time it’s setting up beautifully

I want it to develop abit more then I will show you what I mean

Results are in line with guidance

The uk and us are also inline with expectations

It had nothing to do with fearing 30b poker

Some products performed better then expected

Delayed results don’t necessarily mean they’re bad

They have already told you they are inline

Asos did same last year, raised cash then results ended up being delayed but they said they was inline, so I bought thinking if they spin anything positive in results the stock will pop, they did and it went 30%,

Also investors will look past impairment as long as they have a good enough reason to, bats recently released results with a 27b impairment they flagged 25b of it in December but it still came in 2b worse and the stock went up 7%

The difference between this drop and the last is it got bought up instead of an allday sell off

It will come back up and close the gap eventually

My guts telling me this doesn’t want to sell off but let’s see how the next few days play out

Wealth

Yes good point you make about headroom becoming negative if the numbers go against us

When I looked further into it I realised it may not be as positive as I first thought (the 371m cushion)

Because it could mean a big impairment

The rates only increased once after the half year report at .25 so that alone isn’t enough to cause an impairment but then when you factor in the 5-10m EBITD miss it might be enough to kick up a bit of a storm

The thing that’s got me leaning slightly positive into earnings tho is how well its held up

There’s a lot more skilled/intelligent people than us doing this so you would think that if there’s a massive impairment on the way and results are going to be bad it would of sold off a lot more or shorts would be increasing a couple of things to look out for I suppose along with any broker upgrades/downgrades going into earnings

That’s good analysis Lwhl and I somewhat agree

Firstgroup only pulled in operating profit of around £160m though and they’re valued twice the price

So if we beat it I think it’s only fair this starts to rerate

Agree it will probably keep us in the range of the last few weeks then spike it one way or the other on results

The biggest red flag imo is impairment will the 5-10m hit to ebit decrease the profit margin by 200bps

BUT…… it fell over 30% with that news in the last trading update so that’s already priced in

And it’s been bought back up

It’s beaten down a lot already

I’m thinking anything positive in the results and the stock will pop

Xxxacc if your about mate what are your thoughts on the impairment coming up

Agree it will probably keep us in the range of the last few weeks then spike it one way or the other on results

The biggest red flag imo is impairment will the 5-10m hit to ebit decrease the profit margin by 200bps

BUT…… it fell over 30% with that news in the last trading update so that’s already priced in

And it’s been bought back up

It’s beaten down a lot already

I’m thinking anything positive in the results and the stock will pop

Xxxacc if your about mate what are your thoughts on the impairment coming up

Yes but Jd doesn’t sell Yeezys

Shipping disruptions in the

Red Sea are negative for gross margins, Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden said on Thursday in a call with analysts, adding that "exploding" freight rates are driving up costs and shipping delays are causing some delivery issues.

"Currently the spot rates are exploding again so if you don't have a long-term contract or you ship more than your contract there is an increased cost because of that," Gulden said.

"There is a delay currently of about 3 weeks which of course causes some delivery issues, especially to the European market," he added.

Shipping firms are avoiding the Suez Canal due to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea area and rerouting around the southern tip of Africa, delaying the arrival of clothes and shoes in

Europe from factories in Asia.

I think shipping is going to give Jd another leg down eventually

That’s when il look to start a position

I’m thinking same as these-that boe will hold rates but talk about future cuts and the market will run with it…

Shaan Raithatha, senior economist and strategist at Vanguard, said Andrew Bailey and Co will likely ‘lay the groundwork’ for rate cuts at this meeting.

"This is the slow turning of the battleship of guidance where they slowly start to talk about rate cuts," said Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust.

. Let’s see

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-uk-interest-rates-february-094523295.html

I can’t believe people are even stressing

It’s doing what it needed to do

consolidating in a range, put it on weekly notice it’s going up down up down that’s healthy

At the min it’s holding up fine

Shorts might have to start reducing soon and I think they will, 107 next month

That’s my prediction

🔮

*re rated

It’s just algorithms imo

It won’t go up in a straight line

Even the ones that treated super strong took 15-16 months to get to where they are now

Just have to be patient with this

We had a £371m cushion in the half year report so impairment does look unlikely imo

It does say it’s highly sensitive so can change quick

that was before the 40% of contracts had to be renegotiated as well which should only improve margins

North America

As of 31 December 2022, the value in use of the North America CGU exceeded its carrying amount by £225.9m. At 30 June 2023, the pre-tax discount rate has reduced to 9.9% (31 December 2022: 10.3%), resulting in the value in use now exceeding the carrying amount by £371.7m. The value in use calculation remains highly sensitive to changes in the pre-tax discount rate, long term growth rate and trading assumptions around profit margin. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted on each of these inputs independently. The value in use of the North America CGU would be reduced to its carrying value if i) pre-tax discount rates increased by 190bps (31 December 2022: 110bps); ii) the long term growth rate used to extrapolate the cash flows into perpetuity decreased by 190bps (31 December 2022: 120bps); or iii) the profit margin (defined as earnings before interest, tax and amortisation, divided by revenue) decreased by 200bps (31 December 2022: 130bps).

That’s my take on it anyway

fishbon3 most of your analysis has been spot on mate from what i’ve seen,

the sp does look like it’s running out steam tbf it was up 60%+ of its low can easy pullback 10% or so from here, it’s healthy you need cycles to attract new money

personally i don’t see them reinstating dividends yet or even a special one, i think we would of got a special one if we didn’t have so much debt to pay down tho,

is there only me that doesn’t want a dividend?😂

il tell you why

well tax for starters the tax free dividend allowance only seems to be trending one way and now stands a measly £1000

secondly i think it’s a more flexible way of returning capital to shareholders, eg if the economy/macro was to go to **** again it’s a lot easier to stop buybacks than to stop a dividend with out being punished!

i want to boost the eps

bottom line on stock buybacks

in most cases, companies returning capital to shareholders, either in the form of buybacks or dividends, is a good thing. and in many ways buybacks have some significant advantages over paying dividends, especially if the stock is truly trading for less than its intrinsic value