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Haggis there’s about another 4 resistance levels you have to blast through 1st before you get to 30p

Just saying….

74p it was-

3 Nov 2023 14:36

The covid low is acting as resistance

Get through that and the next major test is 74/75 p

It will probably have another shot at breaking it next week,fail or put in a lower high and it will come back down and test the lows again.

Covid low is acting as support now be interesting to see if it holds

Personally I think it will break but let’s see

Germany will be first to cut rates that’s why they’ve been steaming ahead

Haggis your charts are amateurish at best

Show us the the one with ‘sod all downside ‘ you shown us around 22p let’s see how that played out😩

We’re screwed! 🤣

I think they will probably want to raise funds then resulting in dilution

It brings a whole new level of risk now

But at the same time it’s the second best business in America of its type so I think the sale is more likely to go through than not but obviously what sort of price they’re able to achieve is still a mystery

Qd if you’ve been following you’d know it’s not even up for sale until early 2024 then there’s still 9-12 months of dd to be done so the sale is way off yet stop trying to be a tit man 🤣

Hence why I personally think it will drift lower at some point

Lol there rounded down but there not far off to be fair

And instead of thinking of it as paying off the mortgage maybe upgrades to the house would be a better way to put it

Either way you should get the picture (hopefully)

Yes but Marstons will still have a good chunk of the debt left to service

Mobico won’t

Marstons is still rated a lot riskier than Mobico but you don’t seem to get it

There’s more equity in Morbico than there is in Marstons

Using your house analogy

Mobico and Marstons have a house with 2b mortgage

Mobico has paid 1b off theirs

Marstons has paid 500m off theirs

Mobico is selling land to clear the mortgage

Marstons is selling land to get the mortgage down to more manageable levels

If the sale goes through for Mobico it’s basically risk (mortgage) free albeit with a much smaller property say valued at 1.3b now instead of 2b

Apples and oranges as you would say

Qd how are they talking about 1.7b for the sale if we have no assets and goodwill is worthless?

Serious question

I think it will eventually bottom about lower than where we are now as well but I don’t see a 50% drop with no news

And I would expect next results to at least be inline suppose it will all hang on the impairment tho will they won’t they

Then looking out further there’s a positive catalyst what should erase the debt

The covid low is acting as resistance

Get through that and the next major test is 74/75 p

It will probably have another shot at breaking it next week,fail or put in a lower high and it will come back down and test the lows again

I’ve been trading round a core holding

I kept hold of some just in case I failed to time the market correctly plus they was originally getting a dividend so was happy to get payed for waiting

Did you think I just held everything after that update?

And when this finally does bottom I expect it to bounce strong

If it struggles to past 62p it will probably gives us another leg down

I want it to pull down now they’ve cancelled my divi so they may as well reward me with some cheap stock

I’m going to build another position for the sale knowing my luck it will fall through and we’ll end up issuing shares instead lol

They very rarely go straight to the bottom off downgraded guidance so I expect a little more downside eventually

Qd so are they just selling £1.5b of goodwill then?

According to you goodwill is worthless as well so what are we actually selling

Is it all a hoax?

This looks like it’s going 50p or lower hope I’m wrong

It is getting a little silly tho they’ve knocked off over 150m off market cap from downgraded guidance of 25-30m

We will be trading at cash value on the balance sheet soon….. crazy

Mobico, the transport group participated by the Cosmen family, wants to raise about 1.7 billion to clean up its balance and thus avoid a capital increase.

Mobico, a British transport group that owns Alsa and has the Cosmen family as its main shareholder, wants to take advantage of the strong interest of infrastructure funds in its sector to launch the sale of the school bus division in the United States, in a transaction aimed at raising about 1.7 billion euros that will serve to clean up the balance sheet.

That would be a belting price

Do us a world of good

$1.7b is £1.4b

Yes this is still safe imo if anything will be even safer once/if the sale goes through I.e not going bust anytime soon just going to take a lot longer than everyone had originally planned or expected

the lower everyone’s average the better

Same I only tried to give my godson a good start in life

Now he’s broke, works 2 jobs and had to quit smoking

He’s only 5 🤣

And the exchange rate is a lot more in our favour

I.e we now get a lot more £ for the $

Paddy I’ve made the mistake of going off the market cap before but it doesn’t show the full picture you would be better off doing a thorough analysis of the fundamentals the market can seriously undervalue/overvalue a company

Looking back to

-1999 they bought Durham for $175m (£106m) with a fleet size of 5600

-2011 they bought peterman for $200m (£126m) with a fleet size 0f 3350

So it’s cost us $375m for roughly a fleet size of 9000

We now have a 20000 fleet size so a $750m - $1b. Sale Is easily achievable imo or should be

First student just sold for $3.5b but they have double the fleet and amount of contracts

And although I think the sale should start some form of recovery it’s a massive step back in terms of revenue and profit so i think the old valuations are a thing of the past for now

This will struggle to get past £1.60 imo

Looking forward it may turn out to be a good decision nobody knows what rates are going to be next time they come to refinance the debt so it’s probably a smart decision a chunk of that debt isn’t there come the time

Obviously the eps will be lower once sold so it would be right to go down the share buyback route next time imo

Sounds to me like they trying to follow the path first group took

I’d prefer them to hold off on acquisitions for now tho that’s giving me cineworld vibes

And with no news due for a while it’s back to t.a

There’s resistance at 66p Covid low

Get through that and there’s small resistance at 68p but it should take you all the way back up 75-76p and close the gap

let’s see what the disposal brings in terms of shareholder value

it won’t be given out in special dividend like a few mentioned it’s solely to pay down debt and deleverage

does anyone have a ruff calculation on what it’s worth?

also does anyone know what happened with the acquisition

i won’t be happy if they cancelled my dividends but still think it’s acceptable to try expand through acquisitions

that’s just plain stupid

in the end tho it’s obviously good for business to get the debt down

sticking this ****e in bottom draw for now

Agree rogue

The dividend was the only positive

Now that’s gone why would u buy this

Wouldn’t surprise me if it ended up 30-40 p

I said along we don’t want the dividend cancelled

This is why

Shocker of a day