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Inflation data tomorrow hopefully get a bounce if it’s good 3.5 expected v 4 previously
Economists think it could dip to 2% next month 😳
Inflation expected to fall to 3.5% on Wednesday
UK inflation is expected to come in at 3.5% on Wednesday - down from 4%.
Although forecasts have been wrong consistently for more than a year, in recent months they've not been too far off - and the narrative for some time now has been that inflation would start to fall again come February (it's these figures we'll hear at 7am on Wednesday).
A survey of economists by Bloomberg came up with the 3.5% forecast.
"Cooling food and goods inflation will help drive the rate lower before a plunge in energy bills triggers a more marked step down in April, when economists expect it to dip below the BOE's 2% target," said Bloomberg.
Good thanks kg, hope your well
Yes you haven’t missed much at all, little bit of moaning, the odd conspiracy, oh and Elon musk was going to buy us out at one point 😂 (that must of fallen through tho) think we’ll be around for a while yet anyway.
Agree with you guys tho that if they say they’re going to update the market that’s the least they should do, maybe the rns will come in morning. I don’t think there’s anything behind it tho, kingrav nailed it with his comment they wouldn’t be accumulating now if an Ri was coming
Maybe we’ve all just bought a dud 😂
Jefferies reiterated their buy recommendation on 20/2/24
All the signs I’ve seen so far going into earning have been positive.
I’d like to think that provision and delay rns was a great opportunity to kitchen sink any more bad news as well if there was any.
I think this is where we turn our battleship around personally, I’m not expecting to be full steam ahead but I’m hoping they at least take the twat out of reverse
The drop seems a little over the top to me on delayed results expected to be inline but if it wants to sell off let it il be looking for how it sets up now for earnings then might buy some more. The good thing about it being down going into them is it shouldn’t take much to pop it back up bad news is already getting priced in imo.Imagine if they mention the word interest regarding the na sale it could be back to mid 80’s in a flash then the key part is getting past 90.
The ftse250s setting up really strong as well which can only be a good thing if this is to finally start reversing and holding its gains,it’s flat on the year but looks as though it could be making a cup and handle ready to break upwards eventually.
This is what happened when mcg did it in December on the 1hr timeframe
https://ibb.co/MgjvfQy
Now look at how the ftse250 is setting up on the daily timeframe
https://ibb.co/ZSfzL4N
Obviously there’s more to it than just patterns but when you start to factor in there should be multiple rate cuts over the next two years, inflation trending down and probably coming out of one of the shortest recessions in history all the ducks are lining up nicely imo
I’ve doubled up as well
My worst case scenario was it would put in a double bottom pattern on bad results
But with shorts slightly reducing
Large holder increased
And results expected to be inline
I think the worst case scenario has gone up in flames
Firstgroup good results and expect guidance ahead of market expectations, ‘how the other half live eh’
I still think ours will be ok, I think any relating to the provision will be historical, they’ve already given forward guidance of between 40-70m I suppose they could always come out and say they got it wrong though and now expect it to be between 70-100m, which you kinda can’t put it past em 🤣 but jokes aside we should be swinging from a+ 200m loss to smallish profit and eps going from negative to positive as well
Back to profitability next imo
Any news around the sale will be a massive bonus and a big catalyst especially if there is interest from multiple parties
Then I want to see the outlook hopefully no horrors
It doesn’t get exciting until it gets back to 90p
In the mean time it’s setting up beautifully
I want it to develop abit more then I will show you what I mean
Delayed results don’t necessarily mean they’re bad
They have already told you they are inline
Asos did same last year, raised cash then results ended up being delayed but they said they was inline, so I bought thinking if they spin anything positive in results the stock will pop, they did and it went 30%,
Also investors will look past impairment as long as they have a good enough reason to, bats recently released results with a 27b impairment they flagged 25b of it in December but it still came in 2b worse and the stock went up 7%
The difference between this drop and the last is it got bought up instead of an allday sell off
It will come back up and close the gap eventually
My guts telling me this doesn’t want to sell off but let’s see how the next few days play out
Wealth
Yes good point you make about headroom becoming negative if the numbers go against us
When I looked further into it I realised it may not be as positive as I first thought (the 371m cushion)
Because it could mean a big impairment
The rates only increased once after the half year report at .25 so that alone isn’t enough to cause an impairment but then when you factor in the 5-10m EBITD miss it might be enough to kick up a bit of a storm
The thing that’s got me leaning slightly positive into earnings tho is how well its held up
There’s a lot more skilled/intelligent people than us doing this so you would think that if there’s a massive impairment on the way and results are going to be bad it would of sold off a lot more or shorts would be increasing a couple of things to look out for I suppose along with any broker upgrades/downgrades going into earnings
Agree it will probably keep us in the range of the last few weeks then spike it one way or the other on results
The biggest red flag imo is impairment will the 5-10m hit to ebit decrease the profit margin by 200bps
BUT…… it fell over 30% with that news in the last trading update so that’s already priced in
And it’s been bought back up
It’s beaten down a lot already
I’m thinking anything positive in the results and the stock will pop
Xxxacc if your about mate what are your thoughts on the impairment coming up
Agree it will probably keep us in the range of the last few weeks then spike it one way or the other on results
The biggest red flag imo is impairment will the 5-10m hit to ebit decrease the profit margin by 200bps
BUT…… it fell over 30% with that news in the last trading update so that’s already priced in
And it’s been bought back up
It’s beaten down a lot already
I’m thinking anything positive in the results and the stock will pop
Xxxacc if your about mate what are your thoughts on the impairment coming up
Yes but Jd doesn’t sell Yeezys
Shipping disruptions in the
Red Sea are negative for gross margins, Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden said on Thursday in a call with analysts, adding that "exploding" freight rates are driving up costs and shipping delays are causing some delivery issues.
"Currently the spot rates are exploding again so if you don't have a long-term contract or you ship more than your contract there is an increased cost because of that," Gulden said.
"There is a delay currently of about 3 weeks which of course causes some delivery issues, especially to the European market," he added.
Shipping firms are avoiding the Suez Canal due to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea area and rerouting around the southern tip of Africa, delaying the arrival of clothes and shoes in
Europe from factories in Asia.
I think shipping is going to give Jd another leg down eventually
That’s when il look to start a position
I’m thinking same as these-that boe will hold rates but talk about future cuts and the market will run with it…
Shaan Raithatha, senior economist and strategist at Vanguard, said Andrew Bailey and Co will likely ‘lay the groundwork’ for rate cuts at this meeting.
"This is the slow turning of the battleship of guidance where they slowly start to talk about rate cuts," said Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust.
. Let’s see
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-uk-interest-rates-february-094523295.html
I can’t believe people are even stressing
It’s doing what it needed to do
consolidating in a range, put it on weekly notice it’s going up down up down that’s healthy
At the min it’s holding up fine
Shorts might have to start reducing soon and I think they will, 107 next month
That’s my prediction
🔮
We had a £371m cushion in the half year report so impairment does look unlikely imo
It does say it’s highly sensitive so can change quick
that was before the 40% of contracts had to be renegotiated as well which should only improve margins
North America
As of 31 December 2022, the value in use of the North America CGU exceeded its carrying amount by £225.9m. At 30 June 2023, the pre-tax discount rate has reduced to 9.9% (31 December 2022: 10.3%), resulting in the value in use now exceeding the carrying amount by £371.7m. The value in use calculation remains highly sensitive to changes in the pre-tax discount rate, long term growth rate and trading assumptions around profit margin. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted on each of these inputs independently. The value in use of the North America CGU would be reduced to its carrying value if i) pre-tax discount rates increased by 190bps (31 December 2022: 110bps); ii) the long term growth rate used to extrapolate the cash flows into perpetuity decreased by 190bps (31 December 2022: 120bps); or iii) the profit margin (defined as earnings before interest, tax and amortisation, divided by revenue) decreased by 200bps (31 December 2022: 130bps).
That’s my take on it anyway