Member Info for highlandmatt

MEM - my wife and I looked in to it in the autumn, for a potential Christmas visit to my in-laws in North Cyprus. Absolute nightmare. Only places locally that were doing tests were Edinburgh and Glasgow (2hrs drive) but would only mail out the test kits. Then get results sent to you. Only flights from East Midlands (another 5-6hrs driving). Then fly to Istanbul, then another flight, and hope you arrive within 72hrs of the test. Anything has to be an improvement on that process!

@MEM - makes sense to organise testing at the airport, with results available quickly before embarkation; as opposed to asking individuals to organise privately (from where?) and then present the certificate at passport control on arrival.

Black dog - I had to do the same with TXP last year. The sudden realisation that if it was sold, that the profits would be significant, and the CGT bill large enough to be painful and worth the effort to avoid.

Corpse - I'm hoping that the next lot of news brings us all closer to our dreams, not our current realities.

Do I recall that the Tanzania government had stated that they wanted to do some exploration and development themselves?

Indeed. Seems to be a case of lots of folks wanting in, and no-one prepared to sell.

4 x round 50,000 share blocks this morning. Someone trying to accumulate without spooking?

A simple, but not the cheapest option would be a loan from ARA/APT for $10m @10%. Might even be able to get a payment holiday for a higher percentage? 5 years worth of repayments, plus the G&A costs. Should get to first gas. Make it $20m and progress Kiliwani North remediation or drilling Kiliwani South?

However, JV with a producer would be preferable.

Calm down Dear. BTW, your keyboard seems to have sticky keys.

Thanks Pete. Yes, me conflating 'mobilisation' with actually starting work. I suppose you could start moving the rig from wherever in Q3.

Aimster - that might be optimistic. I think he said 'months, if not weeks'. 2 months time at the earliest, to avoid disappointment. Who knows what dependencies there are.

Thanks Pete. Yes, I have a similar thought process, if not holding size. I got caught out by the delay to drilling, which should have been shortly. Interestingly, the Scirocco presentation released today has drilling planned for 2021...

I remind myself of Buffett's 'Our preferred holding period for stocks is forever'. Although he normally gets some income along the way...

Pete - That was one of my hopes with the FO. AEX could neither afford the cash nor the risk associated with the necessary 'greasing of the wheels'.

As an aside, what are the thoughts on holding here? I'm torn between selling some of my shares (crystallising a loss), investing elsewhere, and coming back in a few months; and sitting tight (and even adding at these low prices) as you never know when a 'strategic' RNS might land (a la Scirocco this morning).

Hunter - based on what?

Darren - it's not too late. If this goes to £200m mcap, getting back in at £20m would be fine :). If you have recognised you have made a mistake, you are well on the way to correcting it before it really is too late. If only I could recognise my mistakes that quickly and have the opportunity to do something about it. Don't let pride get in the way of profit (or minimising losses). Every time I have, I have regretted it.

Tim - my view is that if I trust the BOD sufficiently with my money, I trust them to manage the company in the manner they see fit. I trust Paul Baay at TXP, and I trust Paul Griffiths here. I'm happy to let them determine strategy.

A successful Morocco drill could be worth £100m on the mcap. Look at TXP Cascadura find. PG says Morrocco more valuable. That's just for one well. We plan 5 or 6?

EOR could end up working with half a dozen Operators for a few wells per kit. If each well adds 50bopd and we get half, that's 6x5x25bopd = 750bopd. Assume only $20 netback = £15k day X 300 (conservative) = $4.5m profit. About £30 mcap.

Ireland - the sky is the limit. But we might get the approvals, do all the paperwork, then hand it over to someone else to run in exchange for £100m+.

So, finger in the air, if all 3 projects come good, I'm hopeful of an mcap of £250m+, or 20+ times current mcap. Even if Morocco missed the first drill, and Ireland decided not to play ball, I still think the EOR business is worth at least double the current mcap. We can effectively get royalties on a similar level of production to many small cap oilers.

My hope for the next TXP in my portfolio is Predator (PRD).

Strange. New forum members appearing together. I wonder why?

I've said before, but the offer from PRD is compelling for any operators of mature oil fields. Either incur Capex on workovers, or phone PRD who will provide the kit, the knowledge and the staff. No upfront Capex, share the benefits. It's basically 'no win no fee'. Or win win. Why wouldn't you?