Member Info for highlandmatt

Thanks Pro.

Tim - have a look at Predator (PRD). Big gas drills coming up in Morocco, as well as some interesting low Capex projects using carbon sequestration to enhance oil field recovery in Trinidad, and LNG importation to Ireland.

Millay - Yes. The last 12-18 months have seen something like $130m+ across the 3 major and other projects - monazite stream, extra dredge, pond move, electric infrastructure, dry mining fleet? Knock that back to just sustaining Capex/ (almost Opex), and there is more FCF for divis.

No major Capex due for 5 years?

Good to hear from you Irish mouse, and yes, I'll raise a glass of single malt to those no longer with us, including the Cap'n.

2020 has been a hard year - I work in the NHS supporting care homes. Busy times.

So merry Christmas to all LTHs, and wishing you and your families a happy, healthy and more prosperous new year.

Crusty, Mather. Appreciate the good points you make, which is the point of the discussion, so thank you. Everyone must do what they think is right for them. My hope is the funding issue being resolved (which it must be inside 6 months) will encourage more confidence in AEX.

Thanks Fingers. Another thing to watch is Scirocco is not rich, so might start selling.

And that is part of the issue. There seems to be an element that are 'drill tarts' and impatient. I get the whole 'time is money', 'value of time', 'opportunity cost' argument, but equally Buffet says 'the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient'.

There's a lot of potential M&A in the background. Scirocco have 'multiple interested parties'. I'm speculating/guessing at APT, Wentworth, Orca, and/or any major (Total or Chinese?). Wentworth have a choice of buying Scirocco out, or linking up with AEX.

That is probably also true. However, not necessarily a bad thing. Would we object to being a listed subsidiary of Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, BP, Exxon, Barclays, HSBC, Berkshire Hathaway etc?

That is true Killer whale, on both counts.

Some valid points being made, and various viewpoints. The SP is at the level seen in Sept, when we had no cash, no chance of developing Ruvuma, and owed ARA for various loans. The view then was if the FO didn't happen, we were up the creek. Has the situation materially changed? Yes. So why not the SP? Facts....

1. Do we have current income? No.
2. If nothing is done, will the cash run out before first gas from Ruvuma? Yes.
3. Will the government pay the KN receivables? Debatable.

But the essential questions for me are..will AEX go bust? If not, what is future value? My view and reasoning:

1. No. Ruvuma asset with carry, Kiliwani asset with GSA. Not a failed worthless business, just temporary cashflow issue. ARA holds 30% - not in their interest to lose that. Even if ARA not supportive, there are finance or M&A options.
2. Ruvuma to flow at 40-140 mmcf/d. Income expectations stated to be $40m p/a. Even the bottom of the range would mean an mcap of north of £100m.

The variable is how long we have to wait for first gas, and what the cost of any financing is to bridge that gap. The Joker in the pack is whether some M&A would be better than the finance.

I will continue to accumulate at these levels. I can afford to wait a few years for payoff, but I think it won't take as long as that.

Nice. Took an Elise round Thruxton once. Great fun.

Yes. I've just sold a tranche to continue my shift to my ISA. Bought extra in my ISA on the NGC panic dip, sold the same value from my share trading account this morning. Core holding remains - tightly held.

Just goes to show the funding gap we have currently, when we can't make that business case. If it was invest £1m and guaranteed to get a few hundred thousand back per month, we would simply borrow from ARA? Which suggests either a) not confident of success, b) still awaiting approvals, c) not confident of getting paid?

Bully - apologies. On my phone so can't read RNS and type. Two new sheets discovered .Good news,
and an extra production well.

Bully -my understanding is that we've hit the same reservoirs as Casca1, plus a new one, different thicknesses. Net result is 20% more depth of pay. So it confirms the Cascadura structure and reserves, but not the Deep target as yet.

Thanks Trrime. I'd be happy with that and it makes sense. If we can get $10m in cash, that would get us a long way to production and $20m income a year. Just my perception of the current BOD strategy, being a total sale. However, I could have picked that up wrong.

Wentworth has a choice. Cash and shares if they want more than half of the SCIR 25% (don't think SCIR interested in only selling 10%); or possibly a couple of (cheaper?) options with AEX? As an aside, I think Malcy was enjoying watching her squirm.

Agree BF. Both are asset rich, cash poor, no income.