Member Info for highlandmatt

Should be a good close.

I would agree BG. I believe a solution will be found. Just opining that it might be a concern for potential investors.

BG - the apprehension is that currently we have no income to pay the day to day bills.

Hmm. Lots of batches of 100/200 put through, right at the bottom of the spread. Someone trying to lower the SP?

Got to be fear. I can only assume that folks are going round the thought process of 'they were wrong about Chinook, what else are they wrong about?'

Every time I model the gas found already (Coho + 2x Casca wells), I get $40m per annum, which would give an mcap of £300m or 147p. That's without the legacy oil, the condensates, or anything at all for Chinook or Royston. Or even Indeed just putting more wells in Casca. I'm continuing to accumulate at these prices. I can see a successful test of the Casca Deep well (which has to be a high % COS) pushing the SP back above £1 at least, maybe £1.20?

Surprisingly quiet considering the SP and the new ISA year. Is everyone a bit shell shocked and awaiting Casca Deep testing results?

Thanks Mickey, that was my summary. I keep rereading the various RNSs, and I believe there is confusion because:-
1. The original drill result called it 'significant gas play' in 3 sheets.
2. The 5 March RNS stated 2 x oil zones and gas above (overthrust sheet),putting 1 oil zone on test.
3. The 31 March RNS states that all 3 sheets have now been tested, with extended test underway.
4. It is not clear which 'sheets' have been put on extended test, although the depth given correlates to the 'overthrust' sheet.

However, it now seems clear there is no gas in the 3 x Herrera sheets. The bottom one has been declared uneconomic. I now don't believe that there is an 'intermediate' sheet still to test. I'll own up to that mistake, but I don't think we have had an explicit result from the 'intermediate' test. Maybe that is being combined with 'overthrust' test, or they are keeping the result until they have more data?

However, I stand by my assessment that Chinook is not dead, and the current SP undervalues us for the Cascadura discoveries to date.

Yes, the market has apparently written the entire Chinook prospect off as a bust, when TXP hasn't even abandoned the first exploratory well. Would they really be working with this well and Chinook 'for months to come' if there was nothing worth their while? I don't think so.

"Disappointing, but lots to do still on this well". "On a long term production test with a pump".
"Royston is very different to Chinook, logs are similar to Carapal Ridge and Cascadura".
Cascadura - "On test this weekend".
Royston - "End April/beginning May, then 60 days" (so July for results?)
Paul is taking a view that "this is exploration, there will be speed bumps, and this is one. This is a very large block, Chinook is still a discovery, lots of exciting things to come".

I've reread the RNS for a third time. The market has reacted as if it is a total duster, but I'm going to highlight a few points from the RNS, which I believe give a more positive interpretation. Am I being too optimistic?
1. Title is 'Production Test'
2. '...further evaluation is required to determine commerciality' - i.e. it is not dead yet.
3. 'Chinook-1 will be placed on pump for an extended production test to evaluate the reservoir and guide future development' - not abandoned.
4. 'Over the course of the next few months, the Company will form a development plan for the oil encountered in the exploration well with the focus on identifying locations in the intermediate and overthrust Herrera sand sheets. ' - It's complicated, but the oil is there?
5. 'Following the extended oil test, the Company may complete an uphole shallow gas interval in the Cruse formation or test a Karamat shale gas prospect that was encountered while drilling', - Again, assessing commerciality, plus some more 'science projects' for info and/or even if deeper oil is not of use, may use the well for other purposes?
6. 'This light oil discovery' - possibly putting a brave face on it, but reiterates that they have found something.

I've tried to post it to the TXP Investors facebook page, but FB doesn't seem to like excel. I've put up a rather unclear photo of my screen, from which folks might get an idea of the various 'layers' that are being talked about.

Ok, rather than just whinge, I have gone back through all the RNSs and mapped the wells and depth of each zone, with the results, on a spreadsheet. Summary as follows:-

Coho - 2 x gas zones found (5000-700ft depth) and one oil zone (7700ft). Upper gas zone only tested. Lower oil uneconomic. 1 x gas zone left to test.

Cascadura - Found 2 x shallow oil zones (1,000ft and 4,000ft). 2 x gas zones (5000-6500) - I'm calling these 'middle gas'. Only gas tested, oil not tested yet.

Cascadura deep - Found the two 'middle gas' zones (5,500-6500ft), plus hydrocarbons at 7,000ft - I'm calling 'deep HC'. Deep HC tested and found water. Gas not tested.

Chinook - Found shallow oil (3,000ft), and Deep HC in 3 zones (Overthrust 8,000-8,500ft; Intermediate 8,700-9,500ft; subthrust 10,000ft). Test results - sub thrust = not economic; overthrust = on pump for EWT. Intermediate not tested.

So, it looks like we have to come....
1. Coho -> a lower gas zone;
2. Casca Deep -> 2x 'middle gas' zones a la Cascadura 1;
3. Chinook-> Overthrust EWT, Intermediate test.

What is interesting mapping the depths, is that generally there is 'shallow oil', 'middle gas' and deeper hydrocarbons. Chinook is testing the deeper hydrocarbons, which are the unknowns to date.

What is clear is that the TXP team have been marching ahead with exploration, and not fully testing all zones found in all wells. Someone with more knowledge than me might illuminate this, but it appears to be a case of taking a little bit of info from each well, and moving on with the exploration as fast as possible. A defensive move?

Indeed. I'm trimming other holding in my portfolio to load up at this price. As you say, 85p, madness.

Is it just me, or is everyone else losing track of all these zones, especially at different depth in different wells. A simple diagram would assist in each RNS, but they are always text based. A new presentation with a couple of slides (annotated with results, possibly colour coded for success/non-commercial?) put on the website, to be read in conjunction with the RNS would be great.

Plus, prices were still rising throughout H2, starting at approx $2.50, ending at $3.50, so average $3.
Copper has been above $3.5 since Christmas, so revenues will be higher than this currently.

Rough calcs from RNS full year Vs H1.
H1 - group rev = $75m, EBITDA = $42m.
FY - group rev = $170m, EBITDA = $96m

Thus H2 = $95m rev, $54m EBITDA.
A full year at these prices = $190m, EBITDA = $108m.
Once SASA paid off later this year, FCF takes another jump up.

VH - your volumes are on the low side. Stated aim is 100mmcfd end of 2021, 200 end of 2022. What has been proven so far - 10 from Coho, 50-60 from Casca1. It is reasonable to hope for 30-40 from Casca deep and Chinook. So they already have the wells drilled to hit the target. NAV of proven reserves without Casca deep or chinook is in excess of current mcap.

Hewhodares - fully funded for development to production. It's the lack of any income to cover G&A expenses that is the issue. Tanz govt paying the outstanding invoices would solve this, or a loan from ARA.

Until Casca Deep and Chinook are proved up, prob best not mention 2023, as would be good to include them in that. Estimating 2023 without them would underplay the potential significantly. The important thing is it indicates that 'fair value' for what has been proven is 190p ish. Fill yet boots.

Gasnan - are you gaslady's older relative?