Member Info for highlandmatt

Agreed Volatility. SP doubled on no news other than He1 going over 20p. Dropped back without He1 dropping. SCIR have taken some profit, safeguarded the primary asset, and plan to purchase a profitable company, yet no SP reaction to this progress.

Saw that Frog legs, but it's 5years ago. Always a risk, as seen by Central Asia Metals, a very well run company that had a tailings leak. Hopefully it was learned from.

Thanks Aimster, I try. I've had a look at the Greenan Generation filings at Companies House. No P&L, but the debt on the balance sheet is coming down year on year, and the asset is ascribed a value of £1.7m. with £1.9m debt, if they were paying 10%, then that's £190k of their EBIT gone. Part of the deal is paying off £300k of the debt, so there is a return there. I think the value is not in Greenan per se, but owning 50% of EAG.

I'm also happy. Firstly, the BOD are actually doing something. Secondly, SCIR is loaning funds to EAG at 10%, so there is a return there. Thirdly, we appear to be getting a good deal (700k to buy a company with EBIT of 450k, and EV of £2.6m). Of course there will be transaction costs - you can't buy anything without legal fees.

44RJ - I think that was before my time as a holder. More recently, did we not have the opportunity to subscribe to the placing at the point of He1 RTO in to Atiss? More shares at 2 point whatever then would have been a good ROI. Could we not have borrowed against this amazing finance facility we have to do that? Maybe the BOD haven't got as much access to capital as we (I) would like to think?

AA - I think that is just a fact of life to be accepted. Folk are entitled to, and have, differing views. I would agree with taking some of the profits off the table to safeguard Ruvuma. The BOD cannot afford not to.

I'm starting to agree with previous posters regarding He1. Having said I would let my holding there run through the drills, I have since reconsidered and sold a small percentage of my He1 holding to bank profits and derisk. Mcap is £130m, and the fall from grace if the first well is not successful could be sudden. Equally, excitement can mount further in the run up to the drill. Having said that, if it goes anywhere near to 35p broker note value for a successful first drill result, I'll prob sell another tranche.

Hi Nico. I don't recall it being mentioned. But I did nip away from my PC when Paul was talking about the oil in the west.

And that's just that sheet. There's another equivalent sheet above that.

Thanks for the summary, Scott. Mirrors what I heard. My main takeaway was 200mmcf/d from Cascadura in time. That's about $120m or £90m, just for the gas. Every year.

I'm in the same camp as Scott. This period is seeing a transfer of shares from the impatient to the patient. What do value do we put on a fully developed Cascadura in a few years time? Even if you think short term, the Royston result is only three or four months away.

Indeed Bigpat. He1 has an mcap of £100m without having drilled anything. The BOD have taken a sensible risk based approach to protecting Ruvuma. Imagine the outrage if the He1 drills were not commercial, and the He1 SP tanked. There would be a clamour of 'why didn't the BOD derisk?'. I'm letting my He1 stake run, but it is only a small % of my PF, and I am only accountable to myself if it goes wrong.

Ginmunger - it's an approximation. I reckon the liquids pay for some of the decline. What p/e do you use for valuations? Always keen to learn.

Sorry Scott. Casca Deep might not help with defining the Casca reservoir as it's apparently a separate pool.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/051421-ireland-advises-against-all-lng-project-developments-during-energy-review

This is only sensible, but fingers crossed the review has the right conclusions.

Maybe not, Scott. Paul stated on 29th Apr that the test on Casca Deep was a different sheet and a separate pool to Casca 1.

Chinook timescales - Paul has consistently over the last few weeks asked folk to give TXP and the consultants 60-90 days to scratch their heads and figure out what is going on. Given the Chinook RNS was 31 March, you could argue they've had 45 days so far, but it probably took them time to get the consultants involved and Paul was still talking 60-90 days on 29 April presentation. Therefore I'm hoping for news around end of July.

Royston timescales - my recollection is end of May/start of June for Royston spud. Have I missed soemthing?

My rough calculations on mcap value are:-
1. Legacy oil in west = £15m
2. Coho @10mcf/d = $6m net p/a = £45m
3. Casca (2 wells) @60-70mcf/d = £36+m net p/a = £270m

That gives £330m on what is found so far (approx £150p per share), and matches the Investor Chronicle forecast for income, and applying a p/e of 10.

This gives nothing for additional wells at Casca (certainty), any value to Chinook (a light oil discovery with a large pool), or any other future exploration. The IC forecast is for cash flow of $80+m in 2023, which would give mcap of £600m (approx £3). That is easily achieved with another 2-3 wells in Cascadura. So a decent bet on tripling from here in 2 years.

If Royston is only the same size as Casca, then that adds another £500m to the value (another £2.50), although it might take time to reflect in the SP. Ascribing 30p to the success case is conservative, to say the least.

If Chinook turns out positive, and Royston hits, then £5 by 2023 is possible. We should know something on both in August, and if positive on both, should revisit recent highs (175+p) and I would hope for £2.

Stay the course folks, there's plenty more to come.

1. Geological risk (no trap),
2. Technical risk (drill failure),
3. political risk (licences, royalties, fees),
4. Timeline risk (getting to production and market

In fact, you may as well do a PESTER analysis.

Can't recall if this has already been highlighted or not. A good reminder of where we are heading.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/04/29/production-within-touching-distance-for-touchstone/