Member Info for highlandmatt

Possibly. I was certainly expecting a bigger increase. I don't get why Royston has contributed so little, when there is assessed to be >100m barrels of oil. The SP is back to post-Chinook, and ascribing no value to Royston. What did it cost? A few million dollars? For an exploration well that has hit a large resource and will be a producer, even with the stuck tools. The info gained is of immense value, as the next well into Royston can be optimised for oil. A great ROI in my opinion.

That Reddit post is really worth reading, as it examines one of the major risks - namely a duff test at Mou1.

Ok, quick recap for those skiving at the back.

1) Coho - 2p reserves - 26 Bcf, predicted flow 10mcfd, net to TXP $4m per annum
2) Cascadura - 2p reserves - 339 Bcf, 8.6m barrel condensate, predicted flow initially 90mcfd, 1000 barrels condensate per day. Net to TXP $36m per annum gas, $7m per annum condensate.
3) Royston - 128m barrels (low), 166m barrels (best), 212m barrels (high) . Flow will depend on the number of wells.
4) legacy oil - 1450 bopd, netbacks at $25 = $12.5m per annum
5) So profits $60m + Royston.
6) NPV - 1P (Proven) = $475m/ £350m (165p/share) , 2P (Probable ) = $881m / £650m (£3/share), 3P (Possible) = $1.31m / £1b (£4.70/share).

And lots to come yet. I'll keep accumulating.

Cenkman, I disagree. Even current production of 1500bopd would value the company at £150m. I believe known future production has a value. A vast value in this case

I think it is a global market sentiment from events over the weekend (Putin - 'we will achieve our objectives'). I have a biotech holding with a positive RNS this morning, and that has gone down too.

Yep. Netbacks of $40 on 2000bopd = $28m per annum. 120m+ barrels in the ground, plus the Cascadura gas. Way undervalued.

I'd like to think the market is realising how chronically undervalued this is, but I suspect it might just be a case of rising price of oil lifting all oil producers.

£1 breached. This feels significant psychologically. Hopefully this is the new floor to build from.

Who on earth is selling large chunks at under £1 with oil over $100 and a major reserves upgrade 2 weeks away?!

Royston could be pumping serious revenue at these oil prices. How long can we keep it on extended test for?

Remember Buffett - 'the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient'.

Perceived impact of sanctions on Russia and potential difficulties shipping product from Kazakhstan?

Sorry, realised my second option is GRH's 4th.

All possibilities. I would add 'monetise T&T' to the list, as that is a stated viewpoint of the BOD. If Mou1 is successfully flowed and can be classified as a production well, do the contingent resources become Reserves? At that point, RBL might become an option? An outside option might be directors loans (or friends of Directors)? But I'll defer to those with more knowledge on that.

But even at $20 netback, 10k bopd would be 300k per month, equals $6m per month. $72m / £50m per annum. That's stunning. A new exploration well every month, or amazing bottom line profits. With Cascadura fully online, in 2-3years the numbers say mcap should be around £1bn (assuming £100m profits).

Hold He1 for the pre-drill rise to 20p+. Double the current money. That extra £0.5m makes a difference.

'He's not the Messiah. He's a very naughty boy!'

Sorry for the OT, but couldn't resist, and we could do with cheering up.

Not much of a business model if they are continually selling shares at lower prices.

Reminds me of the best Guinness advert:

https://youtu.be/w9ogzVyTtcw

Need about $3-4m for Mou4, so 10% of the company at current mcap. I suspect :
1. plan A is JV,
2. plan B is sell the T&T business (or JV for cash upfront),
3. plan C is test Mou1 to demonstrate to a potential JV partner or raise on the back of the good news (so a lower % required).