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The target price is disappointing, but I note that Royston is given as 4m boe and a value of $19.6m (6.75p/share). Given the volumetric analysis estimate is 128-211m barrels (I can't recall a recovery factor?), 'running room' seems to be an understatement?

The two Casca wells are given 69.4mboe for NPV of $279m or 95p/share. So, the low estimate for Royston, if proved up, would add 30x, so £2 a share on this methodology? If we assume a recovery factor of 50%, make it and extra £1?

"In reality, the Royston discovery offers development drilling opportunities for many years to come given the scale of the resource and its similarities to the on-trend Pennal/Barrackpore field, which has been producing for 80 years."

Hopefully this works. If not, go to Proselenes twitter or use your favourite search engine.

https://twitter.com/Highland__Matt/status/1513887925649481729?s=20&t=XzP5o7Qcx3yz3QqFjwG_Ew

It's good news, as it delays cash calls and gives longer to sort a sale.

Hi Nick,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe only the testing of Mou1 is currently funded. We have funding for an option on a rig for a planned drilling campaign this year, but that is not funded as yet. If I've missed something, I'd be delighted if someone could point me in the direction of this nugget.

Who knows Frank. Depends how discussions are going. ARA and WEN have to be interested, but maybe WEN's pockets aren't deep enough for $20m upfront and another $35m development. Go halves? But think SCIR BOD want compete sale. Maybe a small upfront fee and royalties/share on future production revenues?

There is still plenty of good quality anthracite in UK mines....

Thanks for reminding us of the ultimate prize GRH.
For those who might think that is unrealistic, or just some ramping on a bulletin board, let us think conservatively.

1. The CPR (i.e. the work of independent industry professional and not made up) for MOU4 (just MOU4, not all of Guercif) states a risked NPV value of $148m. Let's add a slight risk contingency for execution and call it £100m. That's 32p/share.

2. Now, that has execution chance of 25% for gas to power. CNG is a higher chance (economic at 2-5mmcf/d). If we assume 50% chance (I think 100%, but that's just me), that's 64p/share.

3. Looked at another way, unrisked recoverable resource net to PRD is 295BCF. At 1.27p per BCF that's 374p. Admittedly this is gross, but as I was once told by an accountant 'one shouldn't complain about a large tax bill, it means you've made a large profit'.

4. Ok, let's assume we can't get a partner, and we raise $20m to develop Guercif. Assume 10p/share, equals 150m shares. So, 465m shares in circulation. Even taking that £100m (for 295BCF) at 50% chance and dividing by 465m shares, still equals 43p.

That's on Gas Initially In Place of 595BCF. That's off just one data point that has not been tested as yet. With a large structure, it is hoped that there will be significantly more gas proved up. So, based on the best estimate at the moment, 30-60p (or if 100% certain of CNG, 120p). If more gas is found, the numbers go up. If we need to develop it ourselves, without monetising other assets, then that 120p becomes 80p. Still plenty of running room yet. It's going to be an exciting journey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9znA_dwjHw

Ship to ship transfers can be viewed by some as risky (chance of spill), especially in open sea rather than a sheltered port.

As someone that has a day job, how can I outperform the market? Only by being better informed, prepared to wait, and minimising my dealing costs. To be better informed takes research. I only have time to research and keep track of around half a dozen companies. To have maximum impact, I target small caps, so to have the best chance of significant upside. Far better to own a company from £10m to £50m, than a 1bn company to £2bn, even though the latter has grown the business more in an absolute sense. Always happy to receive pearls of wisdom from others.

Have a look back through the RNSs, presentations, CPR and some excellent work on Reddit. You are not comparing the same metrics.

Methodology and Wacky are both posting research on twitter.

Have you two read the CPR?

...and SP goes down. Bonkers.

Good to hear development drilling at Coho, Cascadura and Royston is the priority, with exploration drills slotted in where possible. Looking forward to the cashflow ramping up over the next year.

...and accumulate.

Or it shows there is huge demand for the gas we own.

Ditto. Tried 5 times. NT to buy. Price showing as 80p, so only 10% to Canada now rather than 20%. I'll wait for the ISA period (still transferring from my share account to the ISA).

More likely it was a report on Caribbean O&G that said the market had overlooked Royston.
https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2022/03/regional-update-south-america-and-caribbean

Interesting comment specifically about today, though. Has he heard something, or just spotted the trades coming in on the book?