Member Info for HideInPlainSight

These early biotechs are insanely hard to value, add in the (lack of) liquidity, general risk-off attitude, etc... but in my view the rNPV of Theracryf is more like £8m right now to me, that's 0.37p a share - a nice increase from now. And that's at this very, very early stage with a lot of risk added in, discounting and low probability of success. Successful toxicology and I'd be lifting that to target to 0.5p.

And I'm generally cautious when valuing this tiddlers!

I bought in after the 0.25 placing at 0.22, and see value in that looking forward. I take the point about the past, but with a runway to the end of 2026, a focus on OX-1, and some re-rate potential around toxicology results, I'm pleased to be in now. But it's very much a high-risk play.

As for AS, I did well out of Avacta personally, slicing some during the testing hysteria, but they do have some great science over their too.

Feels like a bit of a hidden gem this as a relatively new holder.

Cash runway to end of 2026.

Strong IP coverage

Compelling and worthy market: addiction

Toxicology study results due through 2026

IND filing end of year

Chairman summary:

"This treatment, which blocks a pathway in the brain that drives addictive behaviour, has the best pre-clinical performance characteristics that I have seen. In addition, it has a short path to being ready to go into human trials next year - a major value inflection point which is certainly not reflected in the current valuation."

The real pain is the lack of liquidity on AIM at the moment. So few people are seemingly willing to take on high risk/reward stories right now, which is a real shame for UK innovation

To me this RNS says: "we never expected or planned to be involved in this trial, now stop talking about it".

Results are due this month, so not long to wait for the real sales numbers and confirmation on the cash runway. I'm feeling positive.

Remember, we raised £7m in investment at 0.3p to support a growing product and giving the team time to let their strategy play out. If they succeed, this will rise a lot. The NSC announcement and the press coverage around it was not part of the business case for this £7m. So let's be positive and let them do their work against what they said they would do with the money, which was:

The Directors believe that with the accelerated growth in PSE test sales, the continued development of the EpiSwitch KnowledgeBase through the partnership with Google Cloud and the status of the ongoing third‑party partnership/collaboration discussions, the business warrants further investment to achieve the following goals:

· To focus on growing sales of EpiSwitch PSE (targeting 500 tests/month within 12 months).

· To out‑license or partner a test (CiRT, NST and CFS representing the most likely candidates for outlicensing).

· To sign a distribution deal/partnership on the PSE test, securing an upfront fee, ongoing milestone payments and royalties on sales.

· To establish EpiSwitch CiRT in NCCN Guidelines and thereafter to seek partners for the test.

· To build on the agreement with Google Cloud to directly monetise the Company's EpiSwitch 3D Genomics platform and knowledgebase.

· To contract and deliver projects for pharma and other customers through sustained direct business development initiatives and/or via leads arising from the use of the platform and knowledgebase.

My small punt on this has not gone well. But since this is now just 0.75% of my PF, I'm just checking in occasionally in case the delist doesn't materialise - which is probably lottery-level odds - and a miracle happens.

So I wish all the dreamers well. And the "we told you so" is hardly constructive.

But seriously, there's nothing happening to suggest anything positive is going on and how people can claim "HUGE TRADE" is mad. In what world is £4k a "huge trade"? What on Earth does that indicate? Nothing.

Exactly, it's a vicious circle in a way. Institutions know they can lowball companies, not enough competition, everyone keeps lowering forward valuations... Add to that the risk averse nature of the average UK investor...

But we know that. So we can't be surprised when it happens. I'm trying to ignore the negative mindset briefly and see the potential. HIPS

Agree. Normal way of things. I'd sooner have an incentivised management team with renewed focus and drive than the opposite.

A bit more research shows the frustrating thing about AIM.

In UK, even a clinical-stage oncology stock rarely trades above 1–2× rNPV. On NASDAQ, equivalent stage companies often trade at 3–5× the same rNPV.

So although UK is frustratingly illiquid and cautious, it could be that CRTX is worthy of a 20p-40p share price, especially if it can increase the cash runway.

Could be an interesting risk/reward play here. HIPS

After a little research there's an estimated ~13,000 new cases of GBM per year in the U.S. plus a similar order of magnitude in Europe, so ~25,000 global developed markets cases of this horrid, aggressive and hard to treat disease.

The current global GBM market for therapies is roughly $2–3 billion per year apparently.

Some rough assumptions on cost, market share and royalty % easily return annual revenues of £100m a year before you layer in the platform optionality of other programmes.

This bullish case then needs PoS, time and discount rates applied, that'd what brings the rNPV down to about £10m now. All IMHO and quick maths.

More than 2x today's market cap

I've returned from the autumn sun of the Canaries and the cold has hit me: not just the weather, but the time to reflect on UK's cold, unambitious, pessimistic attitude to backing our brilliant science with risk capital.

It's tough out there so you need exceptional management to match the exceptional science. OBD, CRTX, SCLP, AGL, AVCT, N4P, the list goes on.

I'm certain Nasdaq would treat them better with positivism and true backing... So heyho. You play the game and just trade a few between placings while you spread your bets.

Will be interesting to know what they say. Thanks HIPS

Not the SP that's the joke. It just reflects the value. The joke is the managements (in)ability to execute any kind of strategy and cost management and do the science justice. Yes UK is a very cautious capital market, and I wish there was more ambition and liquidity to back great UK Medtech, but it's a two way Street. Management need to have the trust. And who trusts these?

Who cares about what but it's a sell or the spread or the daily, hourly, minute-by-minute movements. Let's just see how it plays out

Still so quiet... Just 4 trades today apparently and yet the science seems so exciting.

Frustrating that the UK can't back this kind of innovative company with better capital markets like in the US. UK dare not dream big.

It isn’t because British science is worse; it’s because capital, liquidity, and perceived exit pathways are all richer in the U.S.

Time for UK investors to grow a pair. HIPS

Built position back in may Laura2022. I thlought risk/reward was decent and the runway ok to reach gas exchange which would multiply their TAM. But alas, the cost control and management just not played out.

I'll not sell though as it's possible (not probable) that something ok becomes of this mess.

Thankfully took some profit in FAB and GENF to more than make up for this paper loss. But that's the aim Biotech Medtech game... Spread your bets

Just 1.2% of my portfolio now, so what will be will be. My guess:

85% chance delist

5% chance smaller, highly diluting raise to buy time

5% chance partnership deal

5% cheap takeover

But, they need to change management regardless for the poor commercial and cost performance which they blame on "aim valuation": do your job properly and you'd be worth more market cap. "Not my fault, customers just didn't buy the product enough!"

I still like the science though

It's extraordinary to me how vile and dumb these forums seem to get. Either it's Robin Hood types trying to save us all from aim's cowboy CEOs as if they're on a mission from god to save us from our blind greed: which is at best patronising and boring. Or it's the blinkered fans who only seem to hold one or two stocks and can't bare to hear anything negative or balanced believe every RNS is a precursor to a bagging epic move up.

Just hold a large basket of Medtech/Biotech stocks, accept the 80/20 rule and rebalance/trade between raises and you'll come out up. Worked for me and you don't have to ever worry about being wiped out.

Get some perspective. HIPS.

Just taken a new position recently as I build out my medtech/biotech portfolio. Usual industry funding risk, but my research came up good and feels like a top risk/reward balance for me. Gla HIPS

Feels like this has plenty of potential but not much attention right now... Just taken a new position as I build out my medtech/biotech portfolio. Nice raise a while back, and should carry us through some key milestones. Gla HIPS

Feels like this has plenty of potential... Just taken a new position as I build out my medtech/biotech portfolio. Due diligence showed up nice upside potential albeit risky. Kelly priced in my view. Gla HIPS