Member Info for HideInPlainSight

Taken a new position here recently - feels like a good risk/reward bet after the DD I've done. Trying to spread our my biotech/medtech portfolio and this one hits the spot. Trading levels pretty quiet, always nice to get before the crowd. GLA HIPS

Everyone investing in companies like this on AIM have to know they're placing bets on an industry that's going through a tough fundraising backdrop. You can't buy and hold forever these sort of stocks (in my view) as you'll get diluted into a huge loss. Spread your bets and try and make money between placings.

I'm sticking by here as it feels priced to fail massively (and it might!) but the upside is asymmetric if they secure funding (even at a discount) But what do I know? GLA who are going long. HIPS.

GLA HIPS.

I'm hopeful they'll be trading next year or I'd run a mile. Though they do need a fundraise IMO, I can't see they are trading at levels that push the runway back much at all. Though I could be wrong. Get a clearer, longer runway, whatever pain that involves and we can look forward again. I feel it's got to be worth ~£15m or so over the next few months post-raise, but who knows? Could go for peanuts - you take your chances on AIM with these bio/med tech stocks. I admit, I had to take some profit on this after the healthy rise to spread my risk around the med/biotech sector a bit.

You've got to make some money between the placings in UK medtech - buy and hold forever really doesn't work. GLA HIPS.

Certainly seems well poised - can we get and hold a market cap above £12m-£15m range? You'd like to think so, especially if the grant comes along.

Admit, I had to take some profit on this after a very healthy rise to spread my risk around the med/biotech sector a bit. But very happy to see the remaining stock move up and onwards. GLA HIPS.

"Success" to me is based on hitting revenue goals in 2-3 years' time and then even with cautious margins and harshly discounting the cash - I get a valuation anywhere between £20m-£30m. We're sitting here at £10m so the share price is telling me the market doesn't have the faith.

I'm willing to place the contrarian bet that they can. Spread your bets in biotech/medtech and some come off. HIPS.

Bullish here. Think there's plenty of time to prove commercial traction... Feels to me this is priced for a very low chance of success and for another raising.

I'm glass half full and bought in on a decent risk/reward. My take is they'll be more like Q2 '26 until they need funds. Which should take us through another year end results. Plenty to be optimistic about.

HIPS

Wasn't expecting this announcement. What a pleasant surprise!

This is even more exciting to me than the Pfizer announcement back in July.

Yes more validation needed, but what a fantastic stepping stone! We could be in possession of the world's first fully-reliable CFS/ME diagnostic test... a condition so often fobbed off and hard to diagnose!

Surely this ramps up the rNPV of OBD now! Exciting times indeed

HIPS

Very odd to quote a bid price so far from what we were seeing at the close. Puzzled by that.

However, it's a relatively minor bridge to buy an extra few months to get the grant finalised. Plus the Dog Trial results will then be a lot closer. Warrants may create some slight resistance at 1.2p, but frankly - any good news we're expecting will enable us to churn through those quickly as we rise.

I still feel this has an rNPV higher than where we are now. More like £12m-£15m IMO, and that's with large discounting and low PoS.

So as a punt with big risk/reward, this is very much staying in my portfolio along with other moonshot opportunities.

FWIW, people taking a position here aren't fools. They're taking calculated risks, often with a small % of their portfolio. If I think PoS is 20% and market's pricing it at 10% then that's worth a punt.

And as for the positivity, if Bromley Town play Liverpool in the FA Cup, we know who's far more likely to win, but it doesn't stop you cheering on the underdog.

HIPS

Agree. Even discounting cash (as they'll need it to get close to breakeven) you're left with £20m valuation of core business. Feels a decent bet from here.

I'm long here, but POLX is not "fully funded". It's got cash to last until Q2 next year, but by then it'll hopefully have a trial approved to increase the TAM by about 10x - this will need ~$20m investment. And that's where it'll get really exciting.

For now though - great to see evidence they can actually convert some of the pipeline into a real sale. One or two more of these and the confidence will be high and we can get back to my price target. HIPS

Hopefully we get director buys at this level - that at least would tell us something about their confidence... that'd move it from a 1 in 10 to a 1 in 5 odds perhaps.

HIPS

This is a pure contrarian play, and there's nothing wrong with that. Some people seem to "feel sorry" for "daft" investors catching a falling knife. True if you're putting money in you can't afford to lose (very daft!), but for those of us with long-tail biotech/medtech portfolios, this is just another option in the pareto portfolio. I'd put the chance of success more at 1 in 10. They don't need all the $20m in one go necessarily. The next few months will be about FDA response to Gas-Exchange trial and if they can convert even a small portion of the $21m pipeline, that'll shift the sentiment.

Big risk/big reward. Worth a punt to me

HIPS

Most of this was stuff we already knew from earlier RNSs (and lack of certain RNSs). Still got a strong product, but they've lost a year commercially. Now how much of that's the challenges in the market vs their ability to execute, we don't know. Market thinks they can't be trusted to execute - which is probably fair. What we now know is: they need $20m to get the gas-exchange trial and ready for market; and they've stated $21m in quotes - which we need to be sceptical of, but still interesting.

As a holder I'm staying in. Biotech/Medtech small cap investing is about spreading your bets and the winners paying for all the losers - this might well be a loser, but there's also a chance it can be salvaged, and if it does - this will fly from these lows. Wait and see.

Big six months coming up!

HIPS

Fair. Market needs evidence, not talk. I too was intrigued they focused on customer utilisation rather than new customers. That said, with new products launching and increased utilisation (not a bad thing itself) new customer traction could materialise. I just think market is pricing at a sceptical level. I'm taking a punt on a more bullish view... if they can show progress toward £15m-£20m revenue by FY27, then story changes.

Good to be blue on a high volume day. Hopefully a turning point back to fair value (which I'd put at 25p)

HIPS

I'm not expecting anything positive on the trading front - that seems evident from the lack of new sales... but just want them to expand the runway enough to comfortably get to the Gas-Exchange trials... the RNS of 12th Aug is key, my research - which is limited! - hints that this would increase the TAM tenfold. That's the gamechanger for scaling IMO.

Going through today. Not seen this volume since May. Guess we'll find out soon enough via RNS

As a holder here, I'm excited as it feels like a share with both moonshot potential and value backstop... non-dilutive funding (in the form of grants) + a rough baseline rNPV gives me confidence its worthy of at least £15m market cap - but then add in any news drops that firm up the story (which we should have coming as previous posters have listed out) and the PoS will raise the valuation further. Such a unique share IMHO.

HIPS

Www.labiotech.eu/best-biotech/anti-aging-biotech-companies/

This old (April 25) article shows that GENF is on the list in this arena, but the size of some of the other funding is on another level. Will be interesting if GENF gets on the radar of more HNW and specialist funds.