Member Info for hickfromthesticks

Hi rascal... OK lets try this.... Below is winter average of one year compared with the previous years average. (same assumptions of winter ie 1st Jan to 31st Mar ) 2014............ UP +72% 2015.............UP +1% 2016.............DOWN -22% 2017.............DOWN -2% I think that I wish I hadn't started this !!!! The only conclusion I can come to is that we have (maybe) all assumed that because the winters out there are harsh then production must be affected negatively... There very confusing comparisons seem to show that "it ain't necessarily so"... I'm off to have a lie down in a darkened room.... The only light at the end of the tunnel is that scarlet has shown that the current Mrs H can be run on Guinness rather than my expensive Claret............ Should save me a fortune......

Hi rascal. Maybe my stats are wrong. I have compared the 1st Q of a given year with the same full year. I will look at the 1st Q of a year with the average of the year before... Maybe this would be more representative? Not too sure which would be fairer? I will have a look over the weekend............ you could well be correct....

I DID warn you....... The best you can hope for now is a quick and easy death.....

How-do, young rascal. Saw your post about "Winter Declines"... The figures actually do not support that statement. Here is the boring bit. Winter quarter V Yearly average production. 2014............ yes it was down by c 11% BUT 2015........... it was UP by c 9% 2016........... it was UP by c 5% 2017........... it was UP by c 11% I have assumed that. Winter lasts from 1st Jan to 31st March..... (yes I know that isn't exactly right) To get a 2017 figure - I have used the last quarter figure for 2016. So it isn't totally factual. BUT, as I expect it to be less than last year, the +c 11% will actually rise.... I haven't looked at 2012 or 2013 because that was a time of massive expansion - so it would not be representative. Funny old world - innit? News Flash...... Just had a text from the current Mrs H..... scarlet has barricaded himself into a bar in Milan.... won't come out.... and is singing rude Welsh rugby songs, to the great amusement of the local populace......

stopped talking to myself on this BB. It is the only way to get a sensible conversation... BTW don't be alarmed if you don't hear from scarlet for a few days...... He is off to Milan with the current Mrs H.... I never realised that Welsh people were so brave!!! Or is the word I am looking for - foolhardy?????

My most humble apologies. Previously posted SEPTEMBER stats are wrong.(it is just a few of the MAT totals) Here is what they should be.... Daily production for the month of September in :- 2012 ................. 120 barrels 2013 .............. 1,408 2014 .............. 1,808 2015 .............. 1,663 2016 .............. 1,285 2017 .............. 1,017 Production down 20.86% (yes - bad - but look at last month 23.38%) Before we get to plus figures we need to lessen the minus?.... Now the MAT position. (always a better indicator - father than look at the vagaries that monthly production can throw up). Annual production for the period :- 01.10.2012 to 30.09.2013............. 272,797 01.10.2013 to 30.09.2014............. 653,105 01.10.2014 to 30.09.2015............. 703,932 01.10.2015 to 30.09.2016............. 515,793 01.10.2016 to 30.09.2017............. 426,427 Again down - 17.35% - But this is now the 4th month in a row where the production drop was in the 17% area.... Maybe WF IS starting to work??? And look at the MATS ---- August 434,483 - September 426,427 - a drop, yes. but only a 1.85% drop.... Slowing? yes.. A precursor to a climb back ---- I do hope so.... One further piece of good news is that scarlet has agreed to take the current Mrs H on Milan shopping trips..... God I hope your credit cards are fire proof, lad....

Huh... and I thought you were my pal. One of the cards was stolen, about 6 months ago. I haven't reported it to the Police. Whoever has got it is spending less that the current Mrs H !!!!!

Some clarification. I have been banging on about a steadying up of the Percentage drop at around 17%. I should have pointed out that this is the lowest MAT percentage drop for a while AND it does seem to be steady. Prior to this we did have drops in the HIGH 20's of percents. Yes - I know - a positive negative.... BUT just maybe.........?????????

OK ladies here are the SEPTEMBER stats. Daily production for the month of September in :- 2012 .............. 120 barrels 2013 .............. 1,408 2014 ........ 1,808 2015 ............ 1,663 2016 .......... 1,285 2017 ........... 1,017 Production down 20.86% (yes - bad - but look at last month 23.38%) Before we get to plus figures we need to lessen the minus?.... Now the MAT position. (always a better indicator - father than look at the vagaries that monthly production can throw up). Annual production for the period :- 01.10.2012 to 30.09.2013............. 272,797 01.10.2013 to 30.09.2014............. 641,255 01.10.2014 to 30.09.2015............. 709,062 01.10.2015 to 30.09.2016............. 526,403 01.10.2016 to 30.09.2017............. 426,427 Again down - 17.35% - But this is now the 4th month in a row where the production drop was in the 17% area.... Maybe WF IS starting to work??? And look at the MATS ---- August 434,483 - September 426,427 - a drop, yes. but only a 1.85% drop.... Slowing? yes.. A precursor to a climb back ---- I do hope so.... One further piece of good news is that scarlet has agreed to take the current Mrs H on Milan shopping trips..... God I hope your credit cards are fire proof, lad....

OK ladies here are the AUGUST stats. Daily production for the month of August in :- 2012 .............. 55 barrels 2013 .............. 1,661 2014 ........ 1,694 2015 ............ 1,738 2016 .......... 1,373 2017 ........... 1,052 Production down 23.38% on last year. No sign of WF starting to work. (should I call WTF from now on?) Now the MAT position. Annual production (in barrels) for the period :- 01.09.2012 to 31.08.2013........... 232,776 01.09.2013 to 31.08.2014........... 641,255 01.09.2014 to 31.08.2015........... 709,062 01.09.2015 to 31.08.2016........... 526.403 01.09.2016 to 31.08.2017........... 434,483 Down 17.46% on last year.... This IS the third month in a row where we have a c 17% drop - are we getting towards the turn? Annual production of in excess of 400,000 barrels of oil is not to be sneezed at - that is solid money.... September stats follow ( after I have my porridge).

We have two months together....... I think someone took notice of scarlets e-mails

I am on it....

My post 19.59? I dont think so, but it is over a year ago. The figures just stuck in my mind 220,000 and 11. I hope that it wasn't you - but either way - I wasn't having a pop - the comment was ment to be sympathetic. BTW - should you wish to take the current Mrs H to Milan - you would have my blessing. It is very simple - just bring all your credit cards and be prepared to be treated like a pack horse.... simples....

Welcome to the Mad House, Setanta1.

Fair point, partridge.............lol And it does add weight to the "I don't give a monkeys" attitude he seems to have.

My memory may be at fault. It is a while since I 'phoned Gogis. But I am pretty sure it was the previous month. Agreed 15 days doesn't seem a long time. But surely it is just the matter of adding up the individual well totals.... Not like we have hundreds of wells (more is the pity).

I can't get my head round how Cogis let him away with it. Their rules are clear. Declare the months production by, at latest, the middle of the following month. Fairly clear, yes?

Hi scarlet, Good luck with that e-mail, pal......lol No, we didn't lose - we merely came second.....(well worth a try - and we didn't get many) Saw that post about waiting til the Fat Lady sings...... an honest post..... all is not yet lost. But it is all relevant.... I am not too deep in here - if it does go bang all it means to me is fewer trips to Milan (don't tell the current Mrs H). And my plans to rebuild the small wharf by my boathouse may have to wait til 2019. I recall talking to a chap on here about a year ago. He said he was holding �220,000 worth, with an average of 11p ......Now that is worrying.... If he sold back then at about 1p he would have crystallised his loss to about �200,000. If he still has them well I suppose a �220,000 loss isn't much different, is it? As I said - it's all relative.... Keep me posted on that e-mail?

Hi scarlet, Yes, interesting read. But what we really need, and quick, is a substantial increase in daily production. Some detail on how WF progresses would be more than welcome. Some details of production on, say, a monthly basis would be excellent. Do you know anything further? You seem quite adept in doing the "big sums".

But in between these two management giants - we had a guy who was the dogs nether regions... When SG left - I did sell a few shares... at a nice profit... Shame I didn't sell the rest. But even specsavers don't do 20/20 hindsight.