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ChasPB - oilprice.com gives lots of good info and stats on oil prices for various types of crude.
https://oilprice.com/
There's also a page where you can get charts, with a tool for tracking two different types of product against each other:
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Bonny-Light
TH1973
Take all on this board with a pinch of salt and DYOR.
However, just to end on a positive, and not to put you off looking and commenting at the board (which I still find useful), my speculative punts are:
- hits 30-35p again following RS. Might then drop back into 20s.
- Moves past 40p if and when RBL is in place
- 50p-80p by Christmas if all the production targets are hit and oil remains in excess of $80/barrel.
So big profit to be made, even over next 6 months IMHO
TH1973, nmike & ors - Art has made clear several times that the RS will not be a reserves report. It will be a resources report.
The difference is that no 2P reserves (that is oil with a better than 50% chance of being commercially extracted) will be booked as an asset (or if it did that would be a huge and unexpected bonus).
A small number of 2P reserves were booked from the discovery well in annual report (tens of thousands from memory). What will book more oil - and properly push up the share price - are the delineation wells, which should (if they flow) give sufficient data for 2P reserves to be booked.
Important to say this as:
(a) People should not be disappointed when the RS report does not book 2P reserves or lead to "£1+ per share". That only undermines longterm confidence; and
(b) It is not correct that the report will show that 900million barrels of oil are coming out of the ground. What it will show (hopefully) is that, as announced, there is well over a billion barrels of oil in place (OIP), of which there is a good chance of banking some hundreds of millions of barrels as 2P, subject to further work over the next few years (not months or even a year).
Good luck Shouston! Hope you get a question in.
My one would be, are we expecting an incremental increase in production from improved gas return (and when), or will it all be in one lump? (sadly I cannot join the call as must do some real work!)
COPLH
Whilst we are speculating a bit on the precise numbers, two points are wrong:
(a) On Tilburn's point, even if the CUDA debt has increased that does not mean the cash position was not better in Q1 - setting aside whether in fact it's a delayed billing thing, it just means CUDA were not quite covering what they owed (not surprising given that is why they went bust, and there would no doubt be hefty late payment charges/interest). The cash position still should be better.
(b) Happy to be corrected on this, but the CUDA debt written off for the CUDA purchase isn't the equivalent of cash. If COPL were not the purchasers not all the money would have been paid back anyway as CUDA is bankrupt - COPL is writing off something it would largely not receive anyway.
COPLH/Tilburn
If I have understood Tilburn's basic point correctly, Q1 figures should be better than 2021 Q4 because of the net billing (or whatever you choose to call it) - taking money directly for CUDA's share of costs, and the arrears. That should make a material difference to the cash position at least.
DJH & all - the announcement after close of business is the Q1 update. Bad or good it will be what it will be and must be done. Whether it comes with something else, who knows.
My view is Q1 probably won't look that great as I doubt they will be able to formally include the March CUDA production in the results (correct me if I am wrong) as the sale process is not complete. I am therefore expecting another loss. That is not bad news. What matters is Q2-4 this year, once CUDA sale approved. Are we in operating profit at that point? Then can we increase production?
Lots of people, including me, sitting on paper losses, but that means nothing unless you sell now. Either it comes good or not - that was always the case. IMHO all that has changed since Jan this year (other than the good news of securing CUDA,) is that we discover management ****ed up on the previous loan triggering some penalties, which in turn undermined confidence, and probably made the (near inevitable) placing a little more dilutive. That has reduced everyone's potential profit a bit. The potential is still there.
Some interesting stuff on well-upgrades below, which rather goes over my non-engineer's head. Thanks though.
However, seems to me ultimately the SP is supply and demand. Until some big institutional or deep-pocket PI says "I want a piece" this won't kick up a gear. The potential difficulties in the upgrades hitting proposed timescales and budgets is one factor in that. I suspect the uncertainty, and the current low price, means no one looking at COPL is thinking "I'm missing out" unless and until some hard facts change, e.g.
- Financing - an RBL would dramatically reduce costs of capital, and enable upgrades to happen
- More oil flowing, e.g. c.6,000 bopd.
So don't despair Wookie, Bolton et al. If these thing happen this year (and my view is that they will), we are fine. Once these things happen, there is a good chance (although no certainty) that the share price will follow. My 'finger in the air' view is that financing could push the SP up 50% in fairly short order, and the increase in production another 50% again. We would then be a profitable company, with the potential to develop some (not all) of the 'billion barrels' everyone talks about, and move up further. That last stage is, however, unlikely to even start before 2023.
Let's not worry about what the share price is now, or one week after the AGM. Wait and hope for the big news.
I think he said they were talking to a US bank and a European bank in one of the interviews. Take from that what you will. I take from it, and what was said about combined the CUDA working interest, that Art thinks there's a good chance of a reserve-backed loan facility. However, nothing is certain.
The dream is the US court approves in June and the next day Art announces a $100mil facility (to pay CAPEX and pay of previous lenders) at, say, 7-8%. That would save millions a year on its own and make all the nice presentations a real prospect, in the timescales suggested. My view is that is what will kick the shareprice up a level permanently, not any Ryder Scott report. (Although I hope to be proved wrong and the RS does a job too!)
kdogg - I agree that looks like the plan. I am, however, cautious given the company's record on delivery. Fingers crossed financing sorted as soon a CUDA sale approved in UK. However, it seems to me worst case scenario is that, if new finance doesn't materialise in that timescale, the focus is on using existing capital (and there is some - unclear how much until precise CUDA price is known) to provide a smaller increase in production. Even a small increase and we move from what is likely to be around breakeven (including CUDA share) to a real operating profit.
That is one of the things that gives me some confidence that, even if the finance is not secured immediately, the company isn't going to the wall anytime soon and can still secure finance longterm without massive dilution.
I think that must be right. Thanks for the pointers. I think $3mil for the previous plan - which should hopefully increase total production a bit $12mil for the new pipe plan which - if the full $49mil for all elements can be funded will bring us in excess of 6,000 bopd total (4,000 increase).
Perhaps a question for the AGM - when are the upgrades likely to increase production? Will we see an increase following some initial pipework?
Re: $28mil - definitely is not gas return pipeline. The pipeline is the bit that is intended to bring production up to where COPL was supposed to be last year (c.5,000 bopd), which I believe was said to costs c. $3mil. If that figure for the gas return is wrong, please do say. I think the three drills is the $28mil capex, which I recall must also be done to comply with the lease conditions by sometime next year. However, that would bring entirely separate production on stream, if they are successful.
If the gas return works, and brings production up to that sort of level in the autumn (which is the plan) then we are 'cookin' on gas' (ho ho) - big profits right there to be re-invested as long as oil price has not crashed (although not sufficient to cover all other investment requirements). That is the first big question mark - if that can be overcome, then there must be a very good chance of bank finance, if that has not been secured already.
Is that not a reference to the return pipeline, for which I saw a $3million estimate somewhere? That's what is intended to take us up to 4-5,000bopd. (I agree the 7,000 is not the figure I recognise). That is relatively little capital in the scheme of things.