Member Info for Hexam

“So you think dumb is an insult but obsessed isn't”

I think most people would think that actually.

“So it is unlikely that Vlad can do both roles”

They are supposed to give independent advice so surely can’t do both roles. Even if he does give up the other role I still can’t see how he can be independent.

The fact he has other roles outside of QBT is not really an issue as it is quite normal for NEDs to hold several jobs at once.

Would have thought they would have gone with an outsider with industry experience not an insider who is unlikely to provide the necessary checks and balances that a NED should.

“Big difference.”

Exactly. I haven’t sold yet so haven’t realised a loss. Yes I could have sold earlier but that would still have been a loss (as I’ve been averaging down to get to an average now of just over 30p). At no point could I have sold at a profit sadly. Averaging down may have been a mistake but if I can make 50% from here (which I actually think IS ambitious) then I can get out with a profit.

If I believed it was likely the sp will go down a lot further then I agree the best thing to do is not to be so stubborn and cut my losses but I’m not there…yet.

Because I only think it is possible, not probable.

I’m very happy actually Happy but thanks for your concern. Just don’t like obviously silly predictions and opinions being presented as fact and urging people to buy (with the ‘Don’t miss out’ line) or sell for that matter. Yes you put IMHO at the end of your posts but that appears to be a token gesture given the tone and forthrightness preceding it.

Besides, by not selling I haven’t made a loss yet (unlike you, who did) so every reason to be the happier of the two of us. Just need 35p and I’m out with a profit so on second thoughts please ramp away! 🙂

10p might be right though - 100p was ridiculous and then proven to be so.

It wasn’t the worst though. There was UncleDoug urging everybody to buy when the sp fell below £3 as it would never, ever, ever be that low again and T4G and SCB both predicting £5+.

The thing with the lowball predictions though is that in general they have proved to be accurate…so far.

“50p by christmas (2024 if i remember correctly)”

Was it 2024 or 2023? Anyway one thing I am sure of is that it was 100p that Happy was repeatedly spouting as nailed on before Christmas and slating anybody who dared doubt him. So I don’t think it’s the derampers that should be ignored…

“Still no hint of revenue promised last year, how was that supposed to be created ?”

To be fair they have said they are live mining now so they will be earning revenue regardless of whether the methods work or not. They are mining in pools though and since their hashrate contribution is so low it will be tiny fractions of BTC and may not qualify as ‘material’ for the accounts. Less than a thousand dollars certainly and possibly less than a single dollar.

However, if they do large scale testing with their NDA partner AND retain some of the proceeds then that will be a different kettle of fish.

“If this works as described.....why is our door not getting banged down since last usa jolly?”

Clearly a lack of positivity from those who attended ;-)

“haven't you heard of positivity”

Does positivity help the share price? Nothing wrong with being positive but being objective and realistic are better qualities I think for investing.

“and your 1-2 year overview for Debenhams Group?”

I think they will continue to struggle with cash flow and I don’t expect it to return to a sustainable, positive position under the current management (who I have no faith in). Btw I’m not talking about the misleading FCF metric but the cash flow including all the recurring expenses such as interest and leases which FCF excludes (as that fuller figure is what determines whether they are actually generating or losing cash as a business).

The noise around current debt renegotiation and potential increase to both amount and interest rate suggests to me increasing concerns they also have themselves about the cash position.

Profits are in an even worse position not helped by continuing write-offs reflecting both bad historic decisions and ongoing poor performance. The result for FY2025 will look particularly ugly (loss of well over £200m)?

I think the Debenhams part won’t help as much as some people think as it simply doesn’t contribute enough to the total profits and won’t grow enough to do so. It makes the GMV look impressive but little else.

HOWEVER, I am more optimistic on the sp despite all the above as I think those very problems will eventually force the need of a buyer for some or all of the business and that should lift the value of the company (unless they leave it far too late and it becomes a fire sale).

So I’m invested and hopeful but much more so because of the possible break-up value than them being able to trade themselves out of this mess.

We’re clearly on a different wavelength so I’ll give up.

“The CINE cashflows were impacted during covid and post covid.

which is exactly the issue with Debs.”

Not sure what that has to do with the points I was making and anyway it wasn’t exactly the same issue as BOO’s revenues (and cash flow) soared during Covid whereas CINE’s disappeared. Totally different scenario.

Sort of, but not in the form it was (which was not viable) but main point is they were NOT making cash as you suggested and there is no way they could have got better terms as the risks had gone through the roof.

Also the lenders could not have taken the business at all had CINE not failed their covenant tests or been able to repay some loans. I don’t know what tests BOO has but hopefully they have not breached them. As it is though it looks like they have been put under pressure by the lenders (some refused to extend, asset sales appear to have been a condition for extending others, some were repaid early and terms have worsened). If the Telegraph story has any merit then it seems things are getting worse not better.

Sorry but that’s a poor assessment of CINE in my view. The audiences didn’t come back as quickly or as much as they needed them to, they were haemorrhaging cash (not generating it) and there is no way any sensible lender would have extended loans on better terms once they failed their covenant tests.

There are certainly parallels with BOO but luckily they are not in quite as bad as shape as CINE were - yet!

“As I've said, I'm invested primarily for Debenhams, the same as Frasers are

It's worth way more than the current group market cap”

Another thing we have to agree to disagree on (and don’t bother with the silly Deliveroo comparisons).

“Southcoast anybody who relies on Google derived AI drivel really shouldn't be invested.”

Well, in my view anybody that thinks volume is a driver rather than an outcome really shouldn’t be invested but it takes all sorts.

…the exception, as others have pointed out, is when volumes are SMALL as the sp naturally becomes more volatile and react more noticeably to any particular whim.

“Hexam volume is usually the biggest driver of price on Aim shares as you should know.”

Nope - disagree completely. Volume and big price movement do indeed often occur together but it is usually something else that is driving both of them (e.g. big news that is either very good or very bad).

If the news is big but pretty neutral then volume will still increase but price probably won’t budge much.

In short volume is not a driver on its own but has something else driving it - it’s much more an effect than a cause.

“But that still doesn't explain a 4.5% drop in sp today on 800k or so shares traded.”

It sort of does actually as others have already posted. Poor performance and lack of interest so MMs lower the price to try and generate some.

There’s this odd belief that volume drives price - it doesn’t - not on its own anyway. You can have oodles of volume but the sp won’t move much if there is equal appetite for buying and selling. Or there can be next to no volume and MM’s are floundering around dropping (or raising the price) to try and generate some interest - and arguably the lower the volume is the more volatile a price can be as it won’t take much interest on the buy or sell side to shift the sp.