Member Info for Hexam

"5.5 does not include immersion PW has just stated on the presentation !"

That's how I was reading it but just thought it was too good to be true especially with no dilution to achieve all this. Turns out though that sometimes when something seems too good to be true...it actually is true.

Fantastic news and now all down to the delivery. Must admit it's been a while since I've been so optimistic on this stock! GLA.

"Does this, at least in part answer the question?"

Afraid not as we already know the new machines give 2EH without immersion - the question is what exactly is behind the additional 1.8 EH and hence whether we can expect any more benefit from immersion or is it included already in the 1.8EH (along with the impact from intel chips and anything else).

AB - The figure I recall for deposit percentage is 35% but I don't know if that was simply another poster's guess or was based on fact.

In terms of power, another thing that is not clear to me is whether the 5.5EH is all at Helios. If not then this gives more scope to 'fit' overclocking in and even if it is it's interesting the numbers are still lower than the previous estimates (6EH for first 200mW and 24EH for all).

I agree, we can't be sure either way from what has been said but it makes a big difference so also agree that it would be good to have it clarified either way.

RS - Why are you hopeful to hear some positive news on the appeal soon? According to CINE they expect it to drag on well into next year and so would think we are unlikely to hear anything any time soon other than perhaps a timetable or other logistics? Unless of course it's an out of court settlement that stops the process altogether.

"The Group does not expect damages to be payable whilst any appeal is ongoing, which is likely to take longer than the [going concern] assessment out to 30 June 2023."

I'm just pleased I timed a top up well yesterday - for once!

"Intel machines were never in my calcs - I assumed they would trial in the first 200MW to get them right and then fill the remaining 600MW with them."

They are clearly in ARB's calcs though as they are cited as a key driver in the uplift to 5.5 EH which suggests to me that it is the immersion benefits that are not included in the figure. So my reading is that your numbers include immersion but not Intel and ARB's estimate includes Intel and not immersion. As usual nothing is ever straightforward with ARB but it does look to me like there is potentially further upside if allowing for benefits of BOTH intel and immersion. I'm more than happy though with the prospect of 5.5 EH at the end of the year and any benefit on top will be a nice bonus.

Btw we finally have confirmation of the down payment on the Bitmain machines (£41.63m) and yes, there is no explicit mention of the s17's.

AB - I get what you're saying but what then is the benefit from the Intel Chips? Or is that in your 50% overclocking?

Like you Lotto I'm no technie so have no idea exactly how the intel chips translate into an additional 1.8EH. All I can go on is the wording in the accounts which puts the increase to 5.5 EH as being "driven by the installation of the Bitmain S19J Pro machines and the deployment of custom-designed mining machines utilizing Intel’s state-of-the-art ASIC Blockscale chips".

Like others I don't see how they can quote an expected hashrate that includes a significant uplift from immersion without explicitly mentioning it and when the scale of those benefits are surely still not clear enough to quote a figure on?

That said I'll be happy with 5.5 EH - but if immersion is on top then I'll be bouncing as it will mean so much more in terms of revenue. Hopefully all will become clear soon(ish).

Thanks Lotto. So if I'm reading it right the additional 1.8EH is coming from ASIC chips (consistent with the wording of RNS) and so immersion isn't allowed for (much) in the 5.5EH? Still seems too good to be true but I'll take it if that's the case!

The only disappointing thing for me from the results is that we're having this discussion. It should be clear what the expected 5.5 EH includes and doesn't include. For me the wording strongly suggests it doesn't include immersion. My only doubt comes from this seeming almost too good to be true since if they can get to 5.5 EH by the end of the year AND have the benefits from immersion on top of this AND achieve this for outstanding costs of no more than £100m (with no dilution) then this would be truly amazing. Even if the 5.5 EH includes immersion it's still excellent.

As indicated I don’t think they will give clarity on all those points either but on the first four (i.e. the numbered ones including the cost of the machines) they have no choice. Such things have to be disclosed.

HGN - Yep, one of probably many things I missed off

AB - Thanks but I fear you may be setting yourself up for a disappointment! I'm not around much tomorrow and besides any comments that I do make I doubt will give more insight than you'll be able to glean for yourself. My own focus looking at it will simply be to try to understand just how much they still need to find to fund the current expansion plan (to 3.7EH) before even thinking about how they fund whatever comes next. It's probably been the biggest source of speculation/contention on this board for a while but at last we'll now get some clarity (good or bad) - at least in terms of the amounts involved if not in the method of any funding still required.

The full year results are out tonight and should make for interesting reading. The overall profit is well telegraphed throughout the year via the monthly figures and excluding any surprising one-offs should be a heathy £40m or thereabouts before tax (the main unknown is the costs not included in mining updates).

There are plenty of things which will be enlightening though and these are some of the things I feel are worth looking out for:

1. We should finally find out how much the 20,000 machines cost, how much was paid as a deposit and how much is still outstanding
2. Will be more detail on Texas infrastructure costs so may get a feel as to whether they are within the original $80m estimate or not
3. Will find out what actually happened to the Galaxy Loan – was some of it paid back as planned?
4. Overall should get the latest picture of monthly costs to keeps the lights on, the cash position, debt level, committed costs etc. and therefore what is currently available for funding, how much is needed and what pressures there are on selling BTC

There are plenty of other things they MAY update on too:
- Timetable for installing new machines (including from machine swap) and moving any remaining old ones
- Funding for existing growth plans
- Further growth plans
- Immersion benefits
- Pluto, Intel, epic etc.
- Comment of any mW restrictions from the recent ERCOT related news or if these simply don’t apply
- The missing 80PH

Probably plenty of other stuff I’ve missed but even if, as I suspect, they don’t give too much away tonight they should be out of the quiet period soon so news will hopefully now be more forthcoming. Maybe.

The figures from FunInvestor are simply the US Box Office figures which are the prime source of revenue for CINE. The figures given are all correct.

Although these look poor, US BO may be the prime source of revenue but it is not the only one. Recovery outside the US has been better whilst revenue per customer has increased (largely through the very profitable concessions). In addition costs have been cut which helps profitability although this is at least partially offset by rising interest payments on loans.

In short, although the US Box Office numbers are way short of pre-pandemic years and with the best will in the world they won't improve nearly enough to catch up in the rest if the year the key thing is they don't need to in order to generate the same levels of profit as previously.

My own estimates based on the financials in the second half of 2021 suggest that $8bn of US Box Office in 2022 is enough to translate to a profitable business (excluding one-offs). It's only an estimate and could be wrong but CINE said they were profitable in Q4 when US Box Office was just over $2bn so it seems to fit.

I believe the US Box Office will hit $8bn this year so I think it will return to profits in 2022 and these profits will grow as the recovery in terms of films released and audiences attending improves further in 2023 and beyond.

Sorry about the essay but with CINE it's all about the numbers and though they still don't look great at the moment I can personally see more than enough in them to keep holding - and on the assumption that the court case will either be resolved favourably OR, as CINE have said, will not be resolved for at least a year by which time it should be in a much stronger position to cope with whatever the outcome may be.

Just my views and happy to be challenged - as if I'm wrong on anything, or missed something, I'd like to know sooner rather than later!

@Fazzy - I think the SMA that you were looking at on investing.com was the 10-day one which was shown (correctly) as £11.54 at the end of last week. The 200SMA is indeed up at the £16 level quoted by @OWLS.

“You've never known how much many of Hargreaves lansdown clients had invested in Capita till I showed it you.“

And what you don’t get is that I simply don’t care. I don’t invest blindly but I look for information that I feel is important and useful. If you feel this particular mass of data is in any was useful then knock yourself out but I just can’t see the point. And how you leapt to the conclusion from it that HL clients are looking to exit at 42p is certainly beyond me.

Agree whoknowswat. The article suggests the software does have uses for traders looking across multiple stocks in real time but I can’t see what use snapshots of who holds what has for anybody. I’m just not interested for example in how much HL clients are invested in CPI, or any other share, at any one time and to infer from this that they are looking for a 42p exit price is beyond ridiculous.

Classic case of too much data and too little information and also reading into data what simply isn’t there.

The interest costs are actually not as onerous as that the moment - in 2021 they amounted to $276m on bank loans and overdrafts. Much of the rest actually relates to leases and the revised accounting treatment of them which means they now go through profit and loss via the depreciation and interest lines. In the same way that lease liability isn’t really debt, the interest shown on them isn’t really interest on debt.

The cash cost of leases remains the actual lease payments which of course won’t go away even if all the debt is repaid (assuming of course they don’t buy outright all the buildings they use)!

In other words the leases in my view should be seen as just another running cost rather than a debt burden - and the annual cost of that debt burden is currently much lower than $766m.

"NOBODY sells at a loss unless they desperately need the money."

There are at least three reasons, two good, one bad, why people DO sell at al loss without desperately needing the money:

1. If they think the price will keep going lower (or the company will simply go bust)
2. Think it will recover in time but see more attractive opportunities elsewhere and choose these instead
3. Panic (the bad reason)

Clinging on to a share simply because it hurts to sell at a loss is every bit as bad as clinging on to a share in the vain hope it is going to the moon even when it is clear it's not got enough fuel to even get off the ground.

I think ARB will start going back up at some point but will hang around in the doldrums until there is concrete news on rigs being up and running in Texas and/or news on further growth (with funding that isn't too painful).

It was never going to be a blockbuster but seems to be a decent film bringing in half-decent money. Need many more like this but very encouraging, especially with the demographic - perhaps Death On the Nile came out a month or so too early?

“The staff are already there and while the smaller films alone would not cover all overheads they do assist greatly in backing up those 1 or 2 per months massive releases.“

Spot on Fun - what perhaps I should have said Is that Operation Mincemeat looks like it will cover more than its fair share of the overheads as you’re quite right such films can’t cover all the overheads on their own - nor should they be expected to for the reasons you give.

Like you and others I’ve been banging on about the need for a bigger and better depth in films but with The Northman and Lost City also coming out and running alongside the bigger movies already on show it finally feels like it might be going that way. As always though it’s total box office that matters so it will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.