Member Info for Hexam

Rather doubt that. If there was even a whisper in the market of a bid close to 50p then the sp wouldn't be hanging around the 20p mark.

I agree - they should have no problem getting a waiver for the reasons you give. I was just pointing that although they don't have any maturities coming up they do fully intend to pay off some of the debt early so as to avoid applying for the waiver at all.

@RS2002 - Whilst what you say is true they do intend paying back some of the debt early so as to avoid the net leverage covenant test in June since otherwise they do not expect to be able to satisfy that test. If they are not able to pay down the RCF by the end of June then they will seek a waiver (which I expect they would get):

"Under the weighted base case scenario, the Group maintains headroom against available cash and debt facilities throughout the going concern assessment period. Financial covenants on the RCF would not be breached as the Group would have sufficient funds to pay down the facility such that the covenant is not applicable. It is noted however, that the ability to do this is sensitive to admission levels not being hit, any further film delays and any a material rent payment that has not been modelled. As such, there is considered to be a material uncertainty as to whether the Group will be able to pay down the RCF as at the June 2022 covenant testing date. In the event that it is not able to a covenant waiver for June 2022 would be required."

But surely the fundamentals are a big part of what drives supply and demand. For example profit warnings tend to send a share price tumbling. If CINE had no debt, no court case hanging over it and was reporting £500m pa profit I think the sp would be many times what it is today.

Of course there are other influences on sp but to say that fundamentals (current and outlook) don't matter and the performance of CINE has no bearing on its share price seems bizarre to me.

Also I don't understand why penny stocks are available to the masses but Wetherspoon's isn't. You can buy £100 of each, you just get a lot more penny shares compared to just a dozen or so Wetherspoon ones.

Not that it really matters but I believe the closing price is always set by the outcome of the closing auction i.e. the price at which the most shares can be traded at the prices submitted by everyone taking part in that auction and which is shown as the price against the Uncrossing Trade at the end of the day.

So by definition it IS the closing price but equally by definition it is NOT available to investors before the close of play.

@Hussartbr - The 85% was CINE's base case scenario (for US admissions) not the minimum they 'need'. They also said they "are forecast to return to levels representing 85% of comparable periods in 2019 during 2022" i.e. they are not saying they expect to get to 85% immediately.

As I said, there are reasons why March doesn't compare well (one fewer weekend plus over reliance on Batman) and reasons to be hopeful going forward (more crowded release schedule) so I wouldn't give up on the 85% just yet.

btw - the 86% quoted by CINE was an actual month to date figure, not a prediction of March as a whole

I think @lmil13’s prediction will be pretty close actually so I think he does ‘know the case well enough’.

Yes, CINE stated that revenues for box office and concessions were 86% of 2019 but this is not incompatible with @lmils estimate and there are 3 reasons for this:

1) The 86% is CINE revenue, not US Box Office, and we know spend per person is higher largely due to concessions
2) March had 5 weekends in 2019 (and 3 after March 13) and 2022 has 4 (with just 2 after March 13)
3) 2019 had big releases throughout the month whereas 2022 is skewed heavily by Batman which was released at the start of the month

As others have pointed out though, from April we start to see a real pick up in the number of big films being released so not too much should be read into the March comparison alone even if it is as low as 60%. If it’s still this low come Summer though then that would be the time to worry.

“I have traded for many years and would not lower myself to come out with disgraceful comments as yours”

Actually you just did - in fact yours is far worse by saying those who responded to your nonsense “are ******* scum”. The replies you got were mild in comparison.

In any case I didn’t call you any names at all - just said your post was stupid. And now that you’ve changed your 3 months magically to 12 months it seems I wasn’t wrong.

Generally I prefer the critical views than the vacuous, rampy ones - but not when they are this stupid.

Everyone? Who?
70% down in 3 months? The price hasn’t been anywhere near £2.30 for over a year.

Sure am. It’s an odd combination but that’s diversification for you :)

Indeed but that's a different disposal and also included in post balance sheet events (along with a third, much smaller one: AMT Sybex).

This is listed under post balance sheet events so suggests most of it is not included in the 2021 accounts (and hence not allowed for in the reported net debt figure) but would be in the £700m+ figure quoted for total disposals?

"The disposal of the SSS business to NEC Software Solutions UK completed on 3 January 2022.

Cash proceeds of £72.0m were received on completion, which included the settlement of intercompany balances owed by SSS to the Group of £41.8m. Net liabilities of £0.3m were disposed of, and total disposal costs are estimated to be £4.2m (of which £2.9m were recognised at 31 December 2021). Consequently, we expect to record a total gain on disposal of approximately £26.3m."

AB - they may be sitting on a valuable asset but unless they value it at more than they paid for it (very unlikely at this early stage) it will add nothing to NAV.

FP - it's a bad guess too as it's pretty near impossible unless they bought a winning ticket (or three) on Euromillions and haven't told us about it.

Yep, if that's the quality of the much trumpeted analysis on Discord then I don't think we're missing out on much.

"Market Cap currently trading below net asset value."

Really? Evidence? Do you somehow have access to the up to date company balance sheet?

NAV was only £86m at the end of June and despite the IPO since I very much doubt it is now over £300m. In fact I'm sure it isn't.

Thanks AB, that's clear. Certainly what you present is possible but it is just one of many potential scenarios in terms of cost, timeframe, funding and resultant production.

In my view what's holding the sp back most is exactly this uncertainty on each one of the above elements, let alone all of them together, and whilst your scenario is one possibility (for me very much at the optimistic end of the scale) others will be making their own calculation or most likely simply not bothering at all and just waiting for more concrete information.

Hopefully we'll get more details soon to start removing a lot of the guesswork.

AB - Thanks for putting this up. Very useful and not a million miles away from ARB's own estimate (given in the infamous tell-all interview) of $1.5-$2bn for the whole 800mW.

In comparison you conclude just over $1bn for 600mW so not too far away from this range. So certainly plausible though personally feel a little optimistic.

One thing though is that you state the first 200mW is already funded. I thought there was still outstanding funding required for this and even for the first order of 20,000 machines. Have I missed something or misunderstood your post?

Looking at the prices they clearly aren't all buys - just the data being as unreliable as ever.

Giantsquid - I could throw in other statistics that suggest the opposite. However this is the CPI board, not the CPI vs CINE board, and so all I will say is that there are plenty of good reasons why both CPI and CINE could turn out to be great investments and some good reasons why they might not. I'm only interested in the good reasons not the ramping or de-ramping nonsense. At the moment both CPI and CINE are at their current sp for a reason - that's what the market thinks their worth. I happen to feel they are worth more but I may be wrong on one or both of them. Time will tell.