Member Info for Hexam

Not aware of any remaining obligations regards Celsius?

Fair enough but I think anything beyond short term is a wait not a hesitation.

Don’t agree with your concerns whatever you call them but that’s your call so if you feel like that just short or don’t invest.

“Dont think even the die hards here will just hodl when thing start to turn around again“

Yes, top slicing is the sensible thing to do but it’s so easy to get greedy. That’s why I set sell targets and try to stick to them.

Hopefully those that didn’t sell at the highs last time won’t do the same again but ultimately it’s their choice.

FP - Don’t forget “Quarter and Years” which presumably means a quarter of the share price and years to recover.

Sorry, that was a cheap shot but couldn’t resist it.

Seriously, for those underwater (and that includes me) these are uncomfortable times but I still feel confident in ARB so long as it can ride this out which I think it can.

In my view just about all miners are in **** or bust territory. They will either multi-bag or crumble - it’s hard to see them just bobbing along at these sort of levels.

Agreed sharefall. Just need to find shares where the company’s fundamentals are strong and not as affected by all the macro issues dragging the market. In my view CINE is one of those.

Surely all hesitation is near term :)

It’s not just the June mining numbers. The interim results will be based on the 30th June value of BTC. At the moment it’s not looking pretty for ARB or any other miners reporting then.

So only sell when you’re forced to regardless of the price rather than choose to sell depending on price.

That’s a terrible strategy though to be fair I don’t think that was ever their strategy - I thought it was more we HODL but would consider selling if we felt it was a good opportunity to do so. Unfortunately they didn’t - but again that’s with hindsight.

Better a black sheep than a lost one…

certainly a contender for nuttiest post of the day! Bizarre.

“but if their strategy is to HODL BTC then they've achieved it“

But they haven’t achieved it, they are selling regularly now and for a lot less than they could have sold last year. In hindsight they would have been much better off selling as a strategy sooner but that’s hindsight. It could have turned out a smart move but unfortunately it hasn’t. Just how bad it proves to be depends on what happens with BTC next.

Agree to an extent HC but equally if miners are too prudent in their growth plans then they risk (in fact it’s probably investible) that they get left behind.

I would suggest also that it may be worse already than some would have thought and so it may already be a hurricane for them.

How long this goes on for now will obviously be key.

“That is manipulation at its finest Hussatbr.“

Nonsense.

Chae - That was the position at the year end, it may already have changed since. I haven’t seen any detailed terms so wouldn’t like to guess if, when and how much they might have to increase their collateral. Or if they have the option to pay it off and hence remove the need to hold any margin.

Whatever the terms though it’s clearly not good seeing the value of the collateral getting ever closer to the face value of the loan.

All miners must be sweating at the moment especially those with high costs, low cash, lots of debt etc.

I think ARB is still one of the better placed ones to survive any storm but suddenly dilution is not looking such a bad way of raising funds!

“Almost 300% rise needed for SP to regain £1.00 from here“

200% actually. :)

Agreed HC. If you’re bullish on BTC in the near term then CORZ may look more attractive - I’m agnostic on BTC though so don’t fall in to that group and I simply don’t know enough about CORZ to be confident in it. More research needed.

As to EBITDA I just prefer to look at PBT and cash flow rather than the messy in between that I think EBITDA is. I know some find it useful but I think many more just take it inappropriately as a proxy for profit (to be absolutely clear I don’t think you’re in that number at all).

“Lot of expensive debt secured on the btc holdings”.

No, there isn’t. Only the Galaxy loan is secured against BTC and this forms a minority of their debt and is relatively small ($30m) though it is tying up 1500 BTC.

“I don’t agree with Hexam’s conclusions re Arb vs Corz. “

Fair enough - but are we are disagreeing? All I was saying is that current profitability is similar but CORZ appears to have more upside benefit if BTC increases (and more vulnerability if it falls). Unless I’ve misunderstood, you seem to be saying much the same thing?

The one thing I do disagree with you on is that EBITDA is a useful measure for miners. For a business that relies so much on continued injections of capital any measure that excludes the financial cost of that capital (i.e. via depreciation and interest) is dubious in my view to say the least.

As I made clear, I was only looking at a small part of the financials and not the forward looking part. So good to see your views on that though the amount of debt/convertible loans is still a bit of a red flag for me. Not saying it is a dealbreaker but just that personally I’d want to look into it more if I was thinking of investing.

Well, I suspect $100m to $300m+ will come from positive cash flow up to when that the appeal is decided.

There could be some contribution from lenders and/or some from shareholders. Or Cineplex could simply wait for payment when profits allow.

The one thing I can’t see happening is the company folding because of it as in that case nobody wins. This isn’t like the HMRC chasing an outstanding tax bill. As the business is recovering and moving back into profit it’s in everybody’s interest for CINE to keep going - especially Cineplex as they’re at the bottom of the food chain.

And of course we may win anyway…

But that’s my point. I think it is a backward calculation so it isn’t 300 EH running. A random high burst of coins mined would work backwards to suggest a high EH just as a random lull in coins mined would suggest a much lower figure. The actual power could be the same in both cases.

This seems the most plausible explanation to me. Certainly more plausible than sudden 50% swings in actual global power. That would be possible if there were only a few miners but for many to shut down one moment and restart the next? Just doesn’t scan to me - unless they all shut down for big football games or something! Weather could be an explanation but the pattern just doesn’t fit this as a reason.