Member Info for Hexam

Apologies FP - I forgot they now actually give the number of equivalents each month (I pay less attention to the monthly numbers than I used to since discovering most of them can't be trusted) and see better what you are getting at. I agree that some of that 48 btc equivalent drop is likely to be from loss of value rather than sales/other use but who knows how much?

"My feeling is hexam that they would sell any btc thats not borrowed against first before they would sell any btc that already been put into argo labs....."

Agree FP - all I'm saying is that whether they are selling BTC or the equivalents held in Argo Labs the drop in overall number held has to be more to do with sales. We know only about 10% is held in Argo Labs so it would have to be a serious fall in the value of such assets relative to BTC for it to significantly affect the overall number of BTC + equivalents.

For example assuming 250 or so equivalents are held in Argo Labs then even a fall of 20% in the value of these (more than the drop in BTC) would only result to the number of equivalents to drop by around 50.

"How many btc do they have left to sell? So many must already be committed."

The figure already committed is 1,504 - or at least was at the last year-end. So yes, doesn't look like they can sell that many more especially as BTC has since dropped significantly which probably means they need more headroom now.

FP - They mined/added 124 so actually have reduced by 427. As you say some of the change is always due to how the value of the 'equivalents' move but wouldn't have thought it was that big (they simply don't hold enough of them).

So I reckon they've sold at least 400.

"He very clearly mentioned selling 300 BTC!"

Did he?? Must have missed that? And if that's the case what happened to the other 100 or so?

"I do hope they put out a video later that explains further."

Wow! What AB asks for AB gets! Wish I had your kind of influence ;-)

Slightly reassured by the video and whilst it didn't answer all the questions it's good to see one come out so quickly.

So it does seem the Terrapool issue is just a 'dumb luck' one. The smaller the pool the more variation there is likely to be and May it appears was simply just a very bad month with about 20 BTC fewer mined than expected (i.e. 3 blocks).

If this is the case then it will get better anyway as ARBs EH grows as they will be increasing the size of the pool from their own contribution. I presume their conversations with Terrapool are along the lines of what are you doing to encourage other participants? I also assume they are reluctant to move to a less green, alternative pool?

Still lots of uncertainty about the trade-off regarding electricity but on the whole feel a bit better having watched the video than I did before.

*means they can have streaming services to their TV at no extra cost

- other than the additional cost of the streaming service itself obviously

I agree most don't have home broadband via an ethernet connection (does anybody?) - but most don't have it via mobile services either. Most simply have WiFi (via fixed line connections + router) which means they can have streaming services to their TV at no extra cost - and work from home. So yes, I did read your post properly and it was so full of holes I can only assume you were making such a weak case against streaming deliberately to get people to argue for it.

AB - if it's that easy then why haven't they done it already instead of saying "the Company continues to explore all options to optimize its hashrate across alternative pools"?

My other main issue with today's RNS is the downtime at Helios. I get that there may be compensation payments but if the amount of these payments plus the benefits of cheaper electricity are nearly/fully offset by the impacts of downtime then is ARB any better off? Of course we don't know the full trade-off relationship yet but turning off power already in May is not a good sign.

I'm still very hopeful regarding the transformational potential of Texas but at the moment there are a lot of things that seem to be holding the company back from realising that potential (and they seem to be growing by the day).

"It's like arguing with primeval apes."

I think that's a bit cheeky from someone who claimed that "most people don't have broadband already". Not sure what century you're living in but that certainly sounded like a very stone age, or earlier, comment to me.

maybe so - but sounds like someone's fiddling while it burns...

"Argo does need to sort this BTC per EH issue though, and I'm confident that they have recognised the issue and are working on it."

I completely agree AB but my concern is that they have been bottom of this table for some time (as you've also pointed out) so either they've been slow at recognising it or it's not straightforward to solve. Like you say it's a good opportunity to buy cheap shares and I would do too at these prices but for me today's RNS is too poor and raises too many questions to tempt me i.e. the drop in my view is fully justified on this occasion (and I'm actually surprised it's not more). So it's risky enough for me to just hold for now - rather than 'double down'.

Thanks Allkap - yes, I think you're right that it may be referring to cash flow before interest though I think it's very disingenuous to so as although it can be renegotiated unless the loan is repaid or swapped for equity it's hard to see how it could turn the negative into a positive - and besides the article is talking about actual cash flow and the interest happened (as did the exceptional items).

What really matters though is not to get hung up on what it was, and in particular how it was defined and calculated, but instead what it looks like now and moving forward - and for me the prospect looks a whole lot better now!

I wish it was all just teething problems but as others have indicated the bulk of the issue seems to have nothing to do with Helios as BTC production has dropped 25% from last month (despite an extra day) which couldn't be explained only by Helios even if no new or swapped machines were operating there at all in May.

As average difficulty was only up 7% in May it suggests the biggest issue is with Terrapool and I assume from the appalling jargony 'short-term probabilistic outcomes' it just means that by only mining in one pool there is a greater impact from the random variations that come with mining (since it is all based on probability). Though beats me how they can call it short-term as that exaggerated randomness is there every month until they solve it (e.g. by spreading across more pools or mining in a much bigger one).

If it's a deeper issue with Terrapool though then that's more worrying and more urgent to solve.

Overall a very disappointing RNS, though there were some good bits (ePIC confirmation and the progress at installing both new and swapped machines) - not nearly enough in my view though to offset the negatives including no mention of immersion benefits which I would have hoped would have at least helped to offset part of the impact from the downtime at Helios.

Hi Allkap,

H2 2021 wasn't cash flow positive (see slide 8 - negative $89m after removing exceptional items or negative $151m before).

First six months of this year though has every chance of being cash flow positive given recent box office surge and June slate - but also depends on many things (including capex, how well other revenues have fared compared to H2 2021, cost inflation vs cost savings etc.)

https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2022/full-year-presentation-march-2022.pdf

@Reppyrr - As well as the current economic and political uncertainties hanging over all shares at the moment I think there are two that are much more specific to CINE. One is obviously the court case that you've mentioned but the other is box office recovery and is the one that I actually think is more important.

The fact that Top Gun has done so well, is not a superhero movie, that its numbers are holding up so impressively, that May is clearly cash flow positive and that there are three big films coming out in June should all suggest a much increased confidence in the box office recovery - though its not quite a done deal yet.

I think this alone will push the sp up over the coming weeks and months (assuming no countering bad news) especially if reflected in the half-year results (e.g. profit and positive cash flow for the first six months and favourable news on waivers/loans).

The outcome of the court case will clearly give an immediate 'shock' to the sp one way or the other depending on how it turns out but for me the big ticket item (both literally and metaphorically) is box office and that is looking a whole lot better now than it did earlier in the year.

Personally I'm more than content with 2 steps forward and 1 step back - it's far better than the 1 step forward and 2 steps back we've been experiencing for so long now.

And yes, whilst I think there is much more profit to be made long term, any 'bottom feeder' that got in at around 22p and didn't at least think about taking their profit at around 29p (over 30%) needs their head examining. A 30% profit in a just a few days sounds great to me, and far more than £100, so good luck to them. They're not the enemy.

I can only say that the buzz around Maverick and the impressive May numbers it’s helping to boost is a big turning point in confidence for me (especially with other blockbusters due out so soon) so maybe it is for plenty of others too?

Ironically the kind of people that find it so easy to look down on another group of people are probably part of the easiest group to be looked down on themselves.

Hi Beta, I see now why you preferred looking at individual months rather than an average. I didn't realise you meant looking at ALL the individual months rather than just a single one. I prefer looking at an average because it smooths out both the highs and lows and we see more detailed figures on a quarterly , half-yearly and annual basis to help judge its impact. But I agree that if going to lenders it is better to break it down more especially if it shows an improving trend.

Pretty much agree with the rest of your comments too. A good, objective analysis and hopefully the improving trend continues into June and beyond to put CINE in a stronger position with lenders and also to be able to deal with the court case whatever the outcome.