Member Info for Hexam

"it’s not your entry but your exit point that’s key"

Another gem. It's both. Obviously.

"toothless vultures" - is there any other kind?

Some of the nonsense ramping from the 'pro' investors is getting really tiresome but there are some comedy gems like this now and again. Bit of misogyny thrown in for good measure too. Nice.

Still waiting to hear about all that ETH that ARB mine too.

“Anyone else claim to know when argo started mining ETH pls ?”

The Twelfth of Never?

Sharebel - You've completely missed my point. But no surprise there.

And some miners won't have the luxury of 'quarters' at this level, let alone 'years'.

On a brighter note though is Friday the first day since before Covid that 3 different films have grossed over $10m on the same day? Or even close to that? For me that's more of a good sign than how a single, particular film is doing.

Sorry HC - just seen your more recent posts. Seems like we're broadly agreeing.

HC - Yes, there should be time for many but some may be feeling the pinch already. The most worrying thing about ARB for example is the BTC backed loan. We know the BTC being held as collateral is now worth less than the value of the loan. There must be some implications from this but hopefully they aren't severe enough to cause any immediate problems.

Others may have low HODL and/or be suffering sizable negative cash flows. Even if they turn their machines off they will still have regular costs to meet and if they've grown more through debt then large interest payments to make as well.

I agree it is too soon to panic but I don't think it will take many more months of this for us to hear news of a first miner in serious difficulty - i.e. more than just turning off machines or cancelling orders.

I really don't get the lunacy of those that say everything is going to be alright simply because BTC always goes up after it goes down.

a) This is true of every asset until the first and only time it isn't so it doesn't really means anything
b) If it takes too long to go back up then there will still be many casualties amongst the miners in the meantime

I think BTC will recover sooner rather than later and that ARB will thrive in time but to dismiss the very real risk with meaningless soundbites is lazy, reckless and stupid.

"After seeing the SP they told people to buy at drop 40% in a month , you would of hoped they would stop telling to buy full stop!"

No - it's still buy the dip - even if that dip's a chasm. Irresponsible at best.

Yes, it's certainly possible but, as others have also said, it's likely to be very tight (based on what revenues in the second half of last year produced and also the lengths CINE have been going to this year to try and manage cash).

But that's option C - they've fully utilised it so are talking about paying 65% of it back (not all of it)

...having said that I've been assuming they won't pass the net leverage test given what CINE themselves have been saying but I'm not so sure now looking at the numbers. Must admit I don't like EBITDA as a measure so don't pay too much attention to it but it is obviously critical to this test. To me the adjusted EBITDA for the second half of last year suggests they might actually be quite close to meeting the requirements and maybe this is the reason for the silence after all??? Unless of course I'm misunderstanding the actual numbers used in the test.

@mountainous - yes, it's curious.

They say they have three months to report to the lenders on the covenant test and that is perfectly understandable given that the test involves EBITDA and this isn't available until some weeks after the the 30th June as it will take a while to work it out and finalise/audit the numbers.

However, none of their options actually involve doing the test but are all ways to avoid it and all will need to done by 30th June. The one exception may be the waiver as I suppose it could be argued they only need it once they have calculated the EBITDA but they know already that they won't pass that test anyway.

So hopefully they'll be some kind of announcement ahead of the actual reporting of results otherwise as you say the silence won't exactly be encouraging.

Yes it wouldn’t cost that much but it will still cost something and more than they probably have - and has no upside I can immediately see for them.

Like you say it’s good to have the option though (and it is a standard one) - just not sure I’d trust them to use it wisely :)

Surely a share buy back is the last thing they should be thinking of doing at the moment!

For me it’s a just a standard option that’s got no chance of happening in the next year regardless of the vote.

I agree but I was more making the point that if they paid down the 65% necessary on the RCF then they could also report this by the end of June.

I get the impression too though that option C is what they are going for but maybe it’s so tight whether they can that it’s going down to the wire.

Like you say if it were a waiver you’d expect it announced earlier and for all we know they may already have tried.

Basically the response didn’t add anything to what they’d already told us (in the account notes they referenced).

Surely the same applies to option C?

Nice try Pedro with that old report but firstly CINE's debt is closer to $5bn not $8.9bn - you've fallen for the old chestnut of including lease liabilities. In addition around a $1bn of that debt is on fixed interest rates leaving about $4bn affected by increasing rates.

So even if the these rates went up by 1% it would only increase payments by around $40m pa. Not great but in the context of the size of revenues and the court case for example, pretty small actually.

As to Revlon there is no comparison other than the size of debt as CINE is a business with increasing revenues that is moving back into profits now. Revlon is not.

Unless I'm missing something I can't see that the interest rate change has a major, direct impact on outgoings.

Obviously there are wider, possible knock-on effects of the increase rate hikes for CCL but whilst it is not welcome the impact on interest paid should be less than $100m a year (around $14bn of its debt has a floating interest rate and assuming impact is between 0.25% and 0.75% or so pa). Not nice, but in the scheme of things not huge in the context of its revenues and other costs.

Yes, but Smithy only has a grudge against airlines.